CUrrent Phoenix Metropolitan
Real Estate MarkEt, Updat
©2023 Cromford Associat LLJan
Feb 6 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The table is looking even less positive than last week. We now have 13 cities that have deteriorated for sellers over the last month with Paradise Valley, Cave Creek and Glendale joining the which adds 5 cities to those we saw last week. We still have 4 cities that have shown improvement over the past month, but the average change in CMI over the past month is -5.5% while last week we saw -0.2%. The Southeast Valley is definitely the strongest area at the moment with Queen Creek, Mesa and Gilbert still positive but Goodyear has managed to keep positive too, for now.
The fastest decliners are Fountain Hills down 20%, Maricopa down 15% and Paradise Valley down 12%. But there are several in the high single digits including Buckeye, Avondale, Cave Creek and Glendale.
We have 8 cities that are still seller's markets, 4 that are balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets.
Sellers must keep their fingers crossed that demand starts to show some life after the Super Bowl. In most years we see more buyers emerge once this event is over.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLJan
Feb 4 - Foreclosures are on the rise and no doubt some commentators will get excited about this and paint a bleak picture. However, the reality is that foreclosures are merely on their way back to normal from a long period of ultra-low foreclosure rates. In fact they still have far to go to reach normal levels.
In January there were 422 Notices of Trustee Sale in Maricopa County. Of these 381 were for residential properties. The rest were commercial real estate or land. This is back to the level we saw before the COVID-19 epidemic, but we must remember that foreclosures were very light in 2020. If we go back to 2013 the monthly total was around 1,500 and in 2009 we saw as many as 10,000 in a month. The long-term average is 1,846.
There were 79 completed Trustee Sales in January, of which 63 were for residential properties. This is the highest count since February 2020 and more than 3 times the number in January 2024. But the long-term average is 915, so there is a long way to go before we consider the trend worrying. The peak was 5,090 in March 2010, and we are more than 5,000 below that level.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLJan
30 -Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The table is looking far less positive than last week. We now have 8 cities that have deteriorated for sellers over the last month with Paradise Valley, Cave Creek and Glendale joining the 5 cities we saw last week moving in favor of buyers. We still have 9 cities that have shown improvement over the past month, but the average change in CMI over the past month is -0.2% while last week we saw +4.3%. The Southeast Valley is definitely the strongest area at the moment with Mesa and Gilbert up 10% while Queen Creek is up 8% and Tempe and Chandler are still positive. Phoenix is still clinging onto a 1% gain and Goodyear, Peoria and Scottsdale are also up for the month.
However, at the bottom of the table, bargaining power is looking very strong for buyers with Maricopa slipping well below 50 while in Buckeye and Surprise it is also getting much harder for sellers to retain control of negotiations.
If we look at why the market is so unbalanced in Maricopa we find 635 active single-family detached listings without a contract. That represents 132 days of inventory at the annual closing rate. However the closing rate has recently been in steep decline in Maricopa and only 75 listings closed in the last month. This means we have 9 months of supply based on the most recent monthly sales rate. Even those who don't follow the market closely will know 9 months is a lot inventory, especially for an affordable area like Maricopa. The last time we saw 9 months of inventory in Maricopa was in the dark year of 2008! As a consequence, closing prices are now dropping in Maricopa with the monthly median sales price down to $355,000. The all-time peak was $419,990 which was last seen in May 2022. There are clearly going to be some issues with negative equity in Maricopa, mainly for those who purchased after August 2021.
Its neighbor to the north, Chandler, is looking far brighter. Chandler has only 3.8 months of supply, based on the most recent monthly sales rate. This is likely to drop below 3 months shortly as closings start to accelerate in February.
Like last week, we currently have 9 cities that are seller's markets, 3 that are balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets.
Jan 29 - As expected, the Cromford Market Index has dropped below the balanced range and now stands at 89.9, just inside the buyer's market range below 90.
However, the last couple of days have shown a little more enthusiasm among buyers with the count of listings under contract rising from 6,871 on Sunday to 7,488 today. This is really the first decent sign of life in demand since the start of the year and it has taken the contract ratio from 30 to 34. This is above the "cold market" zone below 30, but still well below last year when we recorded 47.
Meanwhile active listing counts are still growing, but more slowly than they were in the first half of January.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 28 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period September to November 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid October, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
5 cities show mildly rising prices but 15 cities went down over the month, as did the national average. This the fourth consecutive month in which the national average has declined.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Boston +0.42%
- Miami +0.26%
- New York +0.25%
- Los Angeles +0.04%
- Phoenix +0.01%
- Cleveland -0.02%
- Washington -0.05%
- Charlotte -0.06%
- Las Vegas -0.12%
- Atlanta -0.26%
- Detroit -0.27%
- Portland -0.31%
- Chicago -0.32%
- Minneapolis -0.35%
- San Diego -0.43%
- Denver -0.47%
- Dallas -0.54%
- Tampa -0.65%
- Seattle -0.74%
- San Francisco -0.76%
Phoenix has fallen from 4th to 5th place over the last month. The national average was -0.09% so Phoenix was somewhat better than this average.
The East Coast was the best performing area.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- New York +7.3%
- Chicago +6.2%
- Washington +5.9%
- Las Vegas +5.6%
- Cleveland +5.4%
- Seattle +5.4%
- Boston +5.1%
- Detroit +4.6%
- San Diego +4.5%
- Los Angeles +3.8%
- Charlotte +3.6%
- Miami +3.2%
- Atlanta +2.9%
- Minneapolis +2.7%
- Portland +2.0%
- San Francisco +1.9%
- Phoenix +1.6%
- Dallas +1.0%
- Denver +0.9%
- Tampa -0.4%
Phoenix stayed at 17th place, and is still stuck in the bottom half on a year over year basis. For the first time a while we one city in negative territory - Tampa. This may be connected with natural disasters and insurance difficulties. We foresee this concern about insurance availability and cost spreading to the rest of Florida and possibly California. New York, Chicago and Washington are looking very strong in the second table.
The national average is +3.8% year over year. Phoenix is at less than half of that percentage, so has under-performed over the last year. Rising Insurance costs are becoming a concern in Phoenix, especially for condos and apartments.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 27 - Those of you who check the monthly affidavit counts for Maricopa will have noticed that the new home market has deteriorated over the last 6 months. New homes have lost market share to re-sales - 28% down to 24% in December 2024 versus December 2023 for example.
It appears that builders are scaling back on their production plans. The monthly permit count for Maricopa and Pinal in December was the lowest monthly total since February 2023.at 1,653. For comparison December 2023 was 2,095. A downward trend in permits has started which may crimp our supply of new homes in coming months.
This decline may be partly responding to a perceived lack of demand, but may also be influenced by home builders' reaction to 2 key elements of government policy which could make life for the developers a little more tricky in 2025 and beyond.
- higher tariffs on materials imported from countries such as Canada, Mexico and China - either option will increase building costs - either paying tariffs on foreign sourced materials or buying American-made products will both be more expensive for builders than the current situation and will put pressure on their gross margins
- a clamp down on undocumented employees engaged in the construction trade could make some skills hard to find and lengthen build times
By far the largest area of employment for undocumented labor in Arizona is the construction trade. It is estimated that about 34,000 such undocumented immigrants are currently working in construction in Arizona, and roughly 80% of them were born in Mexico. These are unlikely to be working directly for the big homebuilders, but they make up a significant percentage of the skilled workers in their subcontractors. It is not yet clear whether or when these people might be deported, especially if they have no criminal record apart from staying and working in the USA without authorization. Less than 4% of undocumented immigrants are believed to have a criminal record. However, if the numbers of construction workers were to be significantly reduced through deportation, the rate of construction of new homes would likely fall. Some of their trades are not popular choices for American citizens. Their working conditions are frequently hard. Home builders have already been sounding alarms about this issue and have claimed that the USA does not have the citizens or legal immigrants who could replace them. It is not clear whether the concerns of the homebuilders will affect government policy.
We should remember that home prices are not determined by the cost of construction or even the cost of the land that homes are built on. Prices are primarily determined by supply and demand in the home market as a whole. New homes have to compete with re-sales and if homebuilders are faced with higher costs they may not be able to pass these on to home buyers. Their sales will likely fall as a result.
This is potentially good news for existing home sellers since they will have less competition from new homes and prices may rise because of the resulting shortage of supply. If prices rise enough, home builders will then find it then gets easier to compete, even with the higher costs in place. So the cycle continues.
None of the likely scenarios above are likely to result in lower home prices.
However if deportation of undocumented immigrants extends more widely, then this could cause a noticeable reduction in demand for housing. Estimates vary, but it is believed that about 350,000 to 400,000 residents of Arizona are undocumented. To put this in perspective, the 2023 population of Chandler was only 280,000 and Scottsdale was only 245,000. If all undocumented immigrants were to be deported over a short period, that could have a very disruptive impact on housing demand. Prices might fall in this potential scenario. However such a scenario may not be realistic. In fiscal year 2024, ending September 30, 2024, ICE reported the deportation of 271,000 immigrants from the USA, and this was the highest total since 2015. There was no significant increase in deportations during the first Donald Trump administration. The second administration may very well be different. However, population growth or decline is a fundamental factor in determining housing demand, so we certainly need to pay attention.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 25 - The table below shows the number of ARMLS closed listings between Jan 1 and Jan 24 within Greater Phoenix, comparing 2025 with 2024:
Price Range | Closed YTD 2024 | Closed YTD 2025 | % Change |
Below $1M | 2,537 | 2,568 | +1.2% |
$1M or More | 215 | 339 | +57.7% |
$5M or More | 7 | 18 | +157% |
Total | 2,752 | 2,907 | +5.6% |
It illustrates just how much the balance of sales has tipped in favor of the high-end compared to this time last year. Overall closings in the first 24 days of January are up 5.6% but for homes that sold for $1 million or more the increase is almost 58%.
Below $1 million, closed listings are up a mere 1.2%. Million dollar homes have grown their share form less than 8% to almost 12%. This explains why the closing price measurements are looking unusually favorable this month - they are heavily skewed by the surge in luxury homes compared with last year.
Those operating in the low to mid-range should not be misled by the impact of the luxury market. Those operating in the luxury market should bear in mind that it is cyclical. Good times like this do not last forever.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 23 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The table is looking less positive than last week. We now have 5 cities that have deteriorated for sellers over the last month with Fountain Hills the first higher-priced area to join Surprise, Avondale, Maricopa and Surprise in moving in favor of buyers. We still have 12 cities that have shown improvement over the past month, but almost all of that improvement happened at the end of December and the more recent trends are not looking good for sellers.
The average change in CMI over the past month is +4.3% while last week we saw +8.7%. The CMI has definitely peaked and over the last 7 days has been heading down across almost the entire territory. We can see this clearly if we look at the table below, showing the change in CMI over the past week:
he table is looking less positive than last week. We now have 5 cities that have deteriorated for sellers over the last month with Fountain Hills the first higher-priced area to join Surprise, Avondale, Maricopa and Surprise in moving in favor of buyers. We still have 12 cities that have shown improvement over the past month, but almost all of that improvement happened at the end of December and the more recent trends are not looking good for sellers.
The average change in CMI over the past month is +4.3% while last week we saw +8.7%. The CMI has definitely peaked and over the last 7 days has been heading down across almost the entire territory. We can see this clearly if we look at the table below, showing the change in CMI over the past week:
Here we have all but 3 cities moving in favor of buyers during the last 7 days with Fountain Hills leading the charge and PV and Maricopa not far behind. Three cities in the southeast (Gilbert, Mesa and Queen Creek) eked out very small gains.
We now have 9 cities that are seller's markets, 3 that are balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets.
At the moment supply is growing quickly and demand is also rising but at a far weaker rate and without much conviction. Buyers are rapidly gaining negotiation leverage, and sellers need to be careful not to overplay their hand.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 19 - Since the beginning of this year we have seen an increase of 2,324 in the active listing count (excluding those with a contract). This a 11.9% rise, which is much higher than the 8.1% increase we saw this time last year, and it is added to a base of 19,460 rather than 14,593. So it is safe to conclude that supply is both higher and growing more quickly than a year ago.
Listings under contract have also shown some growth - up 13.3% from 5,387 to 6,103. This time last year they grew 23.8% over the same period. We have gained only 716 listings under contract instead of 1,257 last year and the growth percentage is down 44%.
We are therefore seeing demand grow, as is normal for the season but at a significantly slower rate than in January 2024.
So if supply is growing faster than a year ago, but demand is growing more slowly, the comparison with 2024 looks discouraging for sellers. Many readings confirm this picture.
- The contract ratio is stuck below 30 and currently reads 28. Last year it was 41 and was on a strong upward trend.
- The percentage of final list achieved by closed listings is currently standing at 97.15%, down from 97.40% a year ago.
- We have 123 days of inventory versus 92 this time last year and the trend is upwards.
- The listing success rate is 64.3% versus 69.7% last year.
This situation will result in more difficulty for sellers in resisting negotiation demands from potential buyers. New competition from other sellers is appearing quickly and asking prices will need to be set to be competitive and attractive rather than complacent. A price which is initially set higher than the market can bear will result in a long marketing period and eventually deeper price cuts than if the price had been set properly in the first place. This is particularly true at the low and mid-range price points. Those with high-end luxury properties for sale may be more lucky, but their marketing cycles are always far longer anyway.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 16 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The market situation is looking less positive than last week. We now have twice as many cities that have deteriorated for sellers over the past month with Avondale and Buckeye joining Maricopa and Surprise. We still have 13 cities that have shown improvement over the past month, but most of that improvement happened in the last 2 weeks of December and the January situation has been less favorable for sellers.
The average change in CMI over the past month is +8.7% while last week we saw +10.4%. The CMI appears to have has peaked and turned around and is now started on a falling trend.
There are still plenty of cities showing double figure percentage improvements - Paradise Valley, Gilbert, Tempe, Mesa, Peoria, Scottsdale, Goodyear and Glendale and all in that happy group. But this is because December 16 to January 2 saw a large fall in supply and this is now in the process of being reversed. Some of these improving cities even saw their CMI drop over the last week, including Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley and Cave Creek. This is not a good look for mid January.
Buyers at the lower end of the market are not enjoying mortgage rates over 7% at all. It it noticeable that the top of the table is populated by more expensive cities while most of those with more affordable prices are languishing at the bottom of the table.
We now have 11 cities that are seller's markets, only 1 that is balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets. Those 5 still have a long way to go to get back to balance, although Goodyear and Queen Creek are making a good try for it.
Among the secondary cities, Sun City, Casa Grande, Sun City West, Litchfield Park and Arizona City are buyer's markets. Gold Canyon and Laveen are balanced while El Mirage, Apache Junction, Anthem and Tolleson are seller's markets. Sun Lakes is also a seller's market but only by the skin of its teeth with a CMI at 110.7.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 13 - In 4Q 2024, we reached a peak of 22,006 active listings without a contract across all areas & types within the ARMLS database on November 24. This dropped to a low of 19,460 on January 2. Although sellers were helped by the 12% reduction in competition that disappeared between Thanksgiving and New Year, they have little reason to be encouraged by the developments since then.
Active listings have grown back to 21,047 so we are only 4% below the November peak and the current increase is around 4% per week, so we are probably going to regain that peak level within a week or two. It is not clear where supply will head beyond this, but 22,000 plus listings is going to be more than we need with demand still subdued. New listings are arriving in 2025 at almost the same rate as 2020, which is significantly faster than the intervening 4 years.
Where is demand? Closed listings stand around 5,000 per month and year to date closings are down 12% from this time last year. We have 5,750 listings under contract. We started the year with 5,496 under contract, so the rise since the beginning of the year is pretty feeble at only 4.6%. On Jan 13 last year we had seen a growth of 13.2% in listings under contract by now. You would be right to conclude that 2025 is starting distinctly slower than 2024 did.
We can look at supply and demand at the same time by tracking the contract ratio. The current contract ratio figure for Jan 13 is 27.32. Unfortunately, this is slightly down from Jan 1 at 27.47. I was hoping to see a recovery to the 30+ level by now. and we did reach 28.32 on Jan 8, but the recent surge in mortgage rates to over 7.25% seems to have killed off that hope. We were at 6.69% this time last year.
It is early days yet and the spring buying season is yet to start, but I am not expecting the Cromford® Market Index to make much more progress out of the low nineties. It currently stands at 91.6 and it would not surprise me if it fell back below 90 by the end of January, unless conditions improve significantly between now and then.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 10 - Time to take a look at the trends of the first full week of 2025.
- Active listings with no contract - these have increased 4.1% over the past week from 19,776 to 20,583
- Listings under contract - these have increased 4.4% over the past week from 5,496 to 5,737
- The contract ratio has moved very slightly higher from 27.79 to 27.87
We are trying to get a handle on the direction of the market, but to be honest there is not much to talk about here. It's nice that listings under contract expanded by a higher percentage than active listings, but the difference was so small it only added 0.29% to the contract ratio. This is not signaling a big swing in favor of sellers, just more of the same as implied by a Cromford® Market Index in the low 90s.
If we compare it to the same week last year then
- Active listings have grown a bit faster - last year they increased only 3.3%
- Listings under contract have grown much slower - last year they increased 8.4%, almost twice the percentage
- Last year the contract ratio grew from 35.98 to 37.76, adding 4.9% during the first week
With mortgage rates still rising, there is little fuel for the optimists to run on here. On the other hand there is not much to please the pessimists either.
In fact there is not much message in these numbers. Perhaps things will get more exciting during the second week?
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 9 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Like last week, we see the market has improved significantly for sellers over the last month. We have 15 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month and only 2 showing a decrease. These are the same cities as last week.
The average change in CMI over the past month is +10.4% while last week we saw +8.8%.
Tempe, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Chandler, Scottsdale, Mesa, Glendale, Goodyear, Peoria and Gilbert are all giving us double figure percentage improvements. The only cities that have still not managed an improvement from one month ago are Maricopa and Surprise.
Unlike last week, we now have 11 cities that are seller's markets, only 1 that is balanced but still 5 that are buyer's markets. Those 5 still have a long way to go to get back to balance.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 6 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's December filings and here is what we found:
- There were 5,803 closed transactions, up 16% from 5,007 in December 2023 and up 7.6% from November.
- There were 1,389 closed new homes, barely changed from 1,385 in December 2023 but up 7.2% from November.
- There were 4,414 closed re-sale transactions, up 22% from 3,622 in December 2023 and up 7.7% from November.
- The overall median sales price in December was $482,733, up 4.9% from December 2023 and up 1.7% from November.
- The new home median sales price was $533,000, up 5.3% from December 2023 and up 5.7% from November.
- The re-sale median sales price was $458,100, up 4.1% from December 2023 but down 0.1% from November.
There were 22 working days in December 2024 versus 21 in December 2023. As result new homes went down 5% on a sales per day basis while resales saw a 11% increase year over year..
New home market share fell to 23.9% in December 2024, and this is down significantly from 27.7% a year ago.
Overall median prices were higher than last month but this was due entirely to new homes. The re-sale median declined slightly.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 3 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This week we see the market has improved significantly for sellers over the last month. We have 15 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month and only 2 showing a decrease.
The average change in CMI over the past month is +8.8% while last week we saw +6.2%.
We are now at the end of the holiday period so the favorable seasonal pattern that has caused supply to decline has reached its end. From now on we would expect the supply of active listings to grow again. How long that trend lasts will reveal a lot about how 2025 will turn out, so we will be watching the supply level very carefully.
Tempe, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Chandler, Scottsdale, Peoria and Gilbert are all giving us double figure percentage improvements. Not far behind are Goodyear and Glendale. The only cities that have not managed an improvement are Maricopa and Surprise.
Like last week, we have 9 cities that are seller's markets, 3 that are balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets. Those 5 still have a long way to go to get back to balance. Maricopa and Buckeye both have a large excess of inventory relative to their current level of demand. The top 5 cities are looking in much better shape with limited supply and relatively strong demand. They are all more expensive than average. It is the pricier parts of the market that are holding up best as wealthier buyers are far more active than those of more limited financial means..
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 3 - A massive number of listings expired at the end of the year - almost 900 in total. This reduced the number of active listings by about 550 and the number of temp-off-market listings by about 250.
This more than doubles the number of expiring listings that we saw 12 months ago. This high number has dropped the listing success rate to below 65% For comparison, the listing success rate was above 68% one year ago.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 2 - The Cromford® Market Index for all areas & types has managed to claw its way back to 89.6, just under the balanced market zone of 90 to 110.
However the underlying trends are still poor for sellers. The main reason for the slight rise in the CMI from its low point of 86.6 (reached in early December) is the drop in supply caused by sellers taking their homes off the market for the holiday season. The likelihood remains that these homes will be listed as active again soon. It would have been more positive if demand had increased, but it has not. The Cromford® Demand Index is down from 77.1 to 76.6 over the same month. Not down much, but still going in the wrong direction for sellers to be happy.
Another discouraging sign for sellers is that the Contract Ratio for all areas & types has dropped to 27.5. This is definitely in the "cold market" zone and is the lowest reading for the start of a month since March 2009. The contract ratio shows the balance between homes under contract and homes available to buy. It is telling us that we still have too many listings for the current level of demand. For sellers to do well we need either more demand, less supply or both.
Home prices have been remarkably resilient under these circumstances. In particular, the average price per square foot has been quite buoyant. This is due to the relative health of the high-end luxury market. Multi-millionaires have been prospering because of unusually high returns from the stock market where price to earnings ratios are at extremely high levels. Investors in cryptocurrency have reasons to be cheerful too. Ordinary folk, not so much. Pricing for the bulk of the market is flat, as measured by the monthly median sales price. We stand at $450,000 which is where we were in August 2022 and still below the peak of $475,000 reached during the second quarter of 2022.
The real test will come over the next few weeks when we see how supply and demand behave. January normally sees a build up of both, so the key will be to watch carefully to determine which trend is stronger.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Jan 1 - The median sales price for the Central Valley looks like this:
We included Anthem, Desert Hills and New River and the whole of Phoenix apart from 85018 and 85054 which we had previously included in the Northeast Valley. We also include Ahwatukee of course.
The median sales price of $427,500 is 10% lower than Maricopa County as a whole. In Q1 2018 it was also 10% higher, so there has been almost no change in pricing in the Central Valley relative to Maricopa County as a whole.
It is down about 4% from 2Q 2022 though up about 10% from 1Q 2023. This is better than the West Valley, but not as good as the Northeast or Southeast Valleys.
Again, this analysis ignores inflation and concessions:
- The purchasing power of the US dollar has diminished significantly between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024, due to inflation. So the $427,500 we measure in 4Q 2024 is worth the same as $396,026 in 2Q 2022.
- Seller concessions to the buyer have increased between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024. The percentage of sales that included concessions increased from 12% in 2Q 2022 to 53% in 4Q 2024. The median value of the concessions has increased from $3,500 to $10,000.
Allowing for inflation and concessions, today's median home sale price in the Central Valley is about 13% lower than the median home price in 2Q 2022. Therefore the median Central Valley home has become cheaper by a slightly larger percentage than the median home across Maricopa County as a whole (down 12%).
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 31 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period August to October 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid September, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
3 cities show rising prices but 17 of them went down over the month.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Boston +0.25%
- New York +0.18%
- Washington +0.10%
- Phoenix -0.05%
- Miami -0.15%
- Los Angeles -0.17%
- Atlanta -0.26%
- Minneapolis -0.33%
- Denver -0.35%
- Chicago -0.35%
- San Diego -0.38%
- Portland -0.40%
- Las Vegas -0.48%
- Dallas -0.53%
- Detroit -0.55%
- Tampa -0.62%
- Seattle -0.87%
- San Francisco -0.93%
- Cleveland -0.94%
Phoenix has fallen from 2nd to 4th place over the last month. The national average was -0.18% so Phoenix was somewhat better than this average.
The Northeast Coast was the best performing area.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- New York +7.3%
- Chicago +6.2%
- Las Vegas +5.9%
- Cleveland +5.8%
- Washington +5.7%
- Seattle +4.9%
- San Diego +4.5%
- Detroit +4.4%
- Boston +4.4%
- Los Angeles +4.0%
- Charlotte +3.9%
- Miami +3.2%
- Atlanta +3.0%
- Minneapolis +2.3%
- San Francisco +1.6%
- Portland +1.4%
- Phoenix +1.2%
- Dallas +0.9%
- Denver +0.4%
- Tampa +0.4%
Phoenix dropped one more place to 17th, and is still stuck in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are again showing positive price movement from one year ago with Denver, Tampa and Dallas at the bottom. New York and Washington are looking very strong in both tables.
The national average is +3.6% year over year. Phoenix is at one third of that percentage, so has under-performed over the last year.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 26 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This week we see the market improving significantly for sellers over the last month. We have 14 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month and only 3 showing a decrease.
The average change in CMI over the past month is +6.2% while last week we saw +2.9%.
Again we should not get too excited about this improvement, because the seasonal patterns cause supply to decline throughout December and most of the good news is down to these seasonal supply reductions. However, the 6.2% average improvement in the CMI is better than the 2.0% rise we saw this time last year. That's one for the optimists to savor.
Tempe, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills and Gilbert are all giving us double figure percentage improvements. Not far behind are Chandler and Scottsdale. The only cities that have not managed an improvement are once again Cave Creek, Maricopa and Surprise.
We now have 9 cities that are seller's markets, 3 that are balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 23 - The median sales price for the Southwest Valley looks like this:
We included Apache Junction (only the parts in Maricopa County), Chandler, Gilbert, Guadalupe, Mesa, Queen Creek (only the parts in Maricopa County), Sun Lakes and Tempe. We did not include Ahwatukee.
The median sales price of $509,900 is 7.6% higher than Maricopa County as a whole. In Q1 2018 it was 5.7% higher, so the Southeast Valley has become slightly more expensive relative to the rest of Maricopa County.
It is down about 2% from 2Q 2022 though up about 13% from 1Q 2023. This is far better than the West Valley, but not as good as the Northeast Valley.
Again, this analysis ignores inflation and concessions:
- The purchasing power of the US dollar has diminished significantly between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024, due to inflation. So the $509,900 we measure in 4Q 2024 is worth the same as $472,357 in 2Q 2022.
- Seller concessions to the buyer have increased between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024. The percentage increased from 13% in 2Q 2022 to 46% in 4Q 2024. The median value has increased from $3,000 to $10,000.
Allowing for inflation and concessions, today's median home sale price in the Southeast Valley is about 10% lower than the median home price in 2Q 2022. Therefore the median Southeast Valley home has become cheaper by a smaller percentage than the median home across Maricopa County as a whole (down 12%).
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 21 - The median sales price for the West Valley looks like this:
We included Aguila, Arlington, Avondale, Buckeye, El Mirage, Glendale, Goodyear, Laveen, Litchfield Park, Morristown, Palo Verde, Peoria, Sun City, Sun City West, Surprise, Tolleson, Tonopah, Waddell, Wickenburg, Wittmann and Youngtown.
The median sales price of $425,222 is almost midway between Pinal County and Maricopa County as a whole.
It is down about 7% from 2Q 2022 though up about 6% from 1Q 2023.
Again, this analysis ignores inflation and concessions:
- The purchasing power of the US dollar has diminished significantly between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024, due to inflation. So the $425,222 we measure in 4Q 2024 is worth the same as $394,000 in 2Q 2022.
- Seller concessions to the buyer have increased between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024. The percentage of transactions that included seller concessions increased from 12% in 2Q 2022 to 55% in 4Q 2024. The median value has increased from $3,000 to $10,000.
Allowing for inflation and concessions, today's median home sale price in the West Valley is about 15% lower than the median home price in 2Q 2022. Therefore the median West Valley home has become cheaper by a greater percentage than the median home across Maricopa County as a whole (down 12%).
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 19 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This week we see the market improving for sellers over the last month. We have 10 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month and 7 showing a decrease (one of which - Glendale - fell by such a small percentage that we may as well call it unchanged).
The average change in CMI over the past month is +2.9% while last week we saw -0.1%.
Let us not get over-excited. With many sellers taking their homes off the market for the holidays, it would be unusual if the market had not improved for the remaining sellers during the 50th week of the year. Something around 5% improvement between November and December is just par for the course. In that context, Paradise Valley, Tempe, Gilbert, Fountain Hills and Scottsdale were the only locations that did better than par. Goodyear, Phoenix and Chandler were roughly at par and the other 9 cities are below par, with Cave Creek, Maricopa and Surprise doing the worst.
Still - this is the first positive reading for the average CMI change since September 5 and we should not sound ungrateful.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 18 - The median sales price for the Northeast Valley looks like this:
We included Carefree, Cave Creek, Fountain Hills, Fort McDowell, Paradise Valley and Scottsdale and added Phoenix 85018 and 85054 but excluded Scottsdale 85257.
The median sales price is almost twice that of Maricopa County as a whole.
At $890,100 we have a median sales price that is up 1.7% from 2Q 2022 though down a tad from 2Q 2024.
Again, this analysis ignores inflation and concessions:
- The purchasing power of the US dollar has diminished significantly between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024, due to inflation. So the $890,100 we measure in 4Q 2024 is worth the same as $824,654 in 2Q 2022.
- Seller concessions to the buyer have increased between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024. However a much lower percentage of listings included seller concessions in the Northeast Valley. The percentage increased from 10% in 2Q 2022 to 26% in 4Q 2024. The median value has increased from $5,500 to $8,000, a much lower percentage of the sales price in both cases. The effect of concessions is much smaller in the Northeast Valley than elsewhere. When buyers flex their negotiation muscles, it tends to be reflected in a lower contract price.
Allowing for inflation and concessions, today's median home sale price in the Northeast Valley is actually about 6% lower than the median home price in 2Q 2022.
In other words, the nominal price is up 2% in the Northeast but inflation has cost 8%, giving us a net decrease of 6%. However this is much better price retention than for Maricopa County as a whole (down 12%).
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 17 - The quarterly median sales price chart for Maricopa County looks like this:
The first thing we notice is that Maricopa is 28% higher than Pinal. Back in 2Q 2022 the difference was only 22% but it we go right back to 1Q 2018 the difference was 32%.
At $474,000 we have a median sales price that is down just over 4% from the peak of $495,000 that was achieved during 2Q 2022. All of the decline took place during the 9 months 3Q 2022 to 1Q 2023. Prices have moved higher since then, apart from a couple of small dips in 3Q 2023 and 3Q 2024, both due to the summer effect that tends to occur every year.
However this analysis ignores two factors:
- The purchasing power of the US dollar has diminished significantly between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024, due to inflation. So the $474,000 we measure in 4Q 2024 is worth the same as $439,149 in 2Q 2022.
- Seller concessions to the buyer have increased dramatically between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024. They apply to almost four times as many transactions and the median value has increased from $3,500 to $10,000
Allowing for inflation and concessions, today's median home sale price in Maricopa County is actually 12% lower than the median home price in 2Q 2022.
This is a smaller decline than we see in Pinal County but it still means homes are significantly cheaper today that they were two and half years ago. However Maricopa County is a much larger market than Pinal and there are large differences between areas - particularly between the Southwesr and the Northeast.
We will look in more detail at these areas in future observations.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 14 - The quarterly median sales price chart for Pinal Count is looking like this:
At $371,090 we have a median sales price that is down just over 8% from the peak of $405,000 that was achieved during 2Q 2022. The bulk of the decline happened during the period June 2022 to Feb 2023, and prices have moved a little higher since 1Q 2023, despite a bit of a dip 12 months ago.
However this analysis ignores two factors:
- The purchasing power of the US dollar has diminished significantly between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024, due to inflation. So the $371,090 we measure in 4Q 2024 is worth the same as $343,805 in 2Q 2022.
- Seller concessions to the buyer have increased dramatically between 2Q 2022 and 4Q 2024. They apply to more than twice as many transactions and the median value has increased from $4,500 to $10,000
Allowing for inflation and concessions, today's median home sale price in Pinal County is actually 17% lower than the median home price in 2Q 2022.
The CMI for all areas and types in the ARMLS database is just below 90 and has only languished there for a matter of weeks. But many of the largest areas of Pinal County have experienced CMI readings well below 90 for a longer period, so a full buyer's market has been established for quite some time. The city of Maricopa, unincorporated San Tan Valley, Florence, Coolidge, Casa Grande and Arizona City have all been in a buyer's market for many months. The CMI for Gold Canyon has just dipped below 90 in the last 2 weeks and Apache Junction remains the only Pinal County city with a CMI well above 100.
As an example, the most recent monthly median sales price for Casa Grande single-family homes is $316,000. This is the lowest we have recorded since January 2023 and 20% below the peak of $395,000 reached in June 2022. When you look at Casa Grande's CMI at 52.8 and note that it has been below 90 for 14 months, and has almost 5 months of supply, it is not surprising that Casa Grande pricing is showing notable weakness.
We conclude that Pinal County is currently more favorable to buyers than Maricopa County. There are several weak spots within Maricopa County, such as Buckeye, Surprise and Goodyear, but most of the central and northeastern areas of Maricopa County are relatively strong and have correspondingly stronger pricing charts.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 12 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The market has stopped cooling. We have 8 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month and 9 showing a decrease. The average change in CMI over the past month is -0.1% while last week we saw -2.1%. The market has not deteriorated for sellers over the month, and in the last 2 weeks has started to improve..
Maricopa is the worst performer losing 9% over the most recent month, while Cave Creek is down 8%. Paradise Valley is once again the best performer, rising 16%, while Tempe is up 11%.
We have 7 cities that are seller's markets, though 4 of these are weak seller's markets at less than 118. 5 cities are balanced and 5 are buyer's markets. The latter remain in a weak condition with only one (Goodyear) improving over the last month.
Among the secondary cities, Casa Grande is very favorable to buyers with a CMI of 61.6. Sun City, Sun City West, Laveen, Litchfield Park, Arizona City and Gold Canyon are all buyer's markets too.
Anthem, Apache Junction, El Mirage and Tolleson are seller's markets while Sun Lakes is balanced.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 10 - You may have noticed a surprising increase in the average $/SF for closed listings in December. This has been largely driven by the luxury market where we have seen a strong number of closings at an unusually high price per square foot in the last 9 days. Average pricing for homes with living space of 5,000 sq. ft. or more stands at $760 per sq. ft. for December month to date. This is an amazing $90 higher than any prior month.
Of course the sample size is small at these levels. There have been only 28 closings so far this month for homes over 5,000 sq. ft. However this is a higher-than usual number for the first week of December and there are several spectacular properties at eye-watering prices. Examples include:
- MLS 6700989 - Paradise Valley 7,607 sq. ft. sold for $9,500,000 on Dec 2. It was built new in 2020 and cost $4,700,000 in February that year. It has changed hands twice since than and double in price in under 5 years.
- MLS 6790264 - Phoenix (Arcadia) 10,691 sq. ft. sold for $13,200,000 on Dec 3.
- MLS 6667094 - Paradise Valley 7,493 sq. ft. sold for $9,450,000 (brand new).
Things are far more stable below 5,000 sq. ft.
A respectable $296 per sq. ft. but not quite beating the previous peak of $297 in May 2022. Among these smaller homes there is still one with a $/SF over $1,200,
- MLS 6790185 - Paradise Valley - 3,224 sq. ft. sold for $3,925,000
This sale has a major impact on the month-to date average, which I would expect to be reduced by the time all the investor transactions are closed towards the end of December.
These charts tell an interesting story.
Between 2014 and 2020 homes of 5,000 sq. ft. or more hardly saw any appreciation, but this all changed with the COVID epidemic and they have not stopped rising since.
Between 2014 and 2020 homes below 5,000 sq. ft. appreciated well but really took off during the COVID epidemic. However since mid 2022 prices have only moved sideways.
The percentage gap between the general market and the high-end pricing has never been higher than it is today. Luxury buyers are paying the highest premium we have recorded.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 6 - Despite high mortgage rates and reports of delinquency problems in car loans and credit cards, the vast majority of borrowers are keeping current with their mortgage payments.
Serious delinquencies on home loans fell to a 17-year low in October, according to Black Knight Financial Services. Although national foreclosure starts jumped to their highest level in 18 months, they are still 25% below pre-pandemic levels.
You can check the pending foreclosures for Maricopa County in our foreclosure chart, but I can save you the time. The is nothing interesting to see. We are still below 1,000 pending foreclosures, which for a county as large as Maricopa, is a very small number.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 5 - The Affidavits of Value recorded during November by Maricopa County have now been analyzed and show us the following:
- There were 4,887 closed transactions, down 8% from 5,333 in November 2022 and down 12% from October.
- There were 1,220 closed new homes, down 11% from 1,364 in November 2022 and down 18% from October.
- There were 3,667 closed re-sale transactions, down 8% from 3,969 in November 2022 and down 10% from October.
- The overall median sales price in November was $465,000, up 2.2% from November 2022 and up 0.3% from October.
- The re-sale median sales price was $447,000, up 4.0% from November 2022 and up 0.6% from October.
- The new home median sales price was $505,050, down 4.7% from November 2022 and down 0.7% from October.
New home sales were weaker in November and the median price was down too. However the average size of a new home has been falling and this accounts for about half of the median price drop since November 2022. November is always a weak month for closings, especially new homes. Many builders tend to focus on closings by year end and quarter end, rather than mid-quarter.
The re-sale market remained very quiet, with prices holding up well.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 2 - The typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped significantly since October, falling from 7.92% on October 30 down to 7.09% as of December 1.
You might have expected this significant drop in the cost of buying a home to result in a jump in the number of people contracting to do so. There have been some reports of a jump in mortgage applications, but as far as the ARMLS database is concerned, the number of listings under contract is distinctly underwhelming - 5,817 as of December 2 and still well below the 2022 number.
A respectable $296 per sq. ft. but not quite beating the previous peak of $297 in May 2022. Among these smaller homes there is still one with a $/SF over $1,200,
- MLS 6790185 - Paradise Valley - 3,224 sq. ft. sold for $3,925,000
This sale has a major impact on the month-to date average, which I would expect to be reduced by the time all the investor transactions are closed towards the end of December.
These charts tell an interesting story.
Between 2014 and 2020 homes of 5,000 sq. ft. or more hardly saw any appreciation, but this all changed with the COVID epidemic and they have not stopped rising since.
Between 2014 and 2020 homes below 5,000 sq. ft. appreciated well but really took off during the COVID epidemic. However since mid 2022 prices have only moved sideways.
The percentage gap between the general market and the high-end pricing has never been higher than it is today. Luxury buyers are paying the highest premium we have recorded.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 6 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's November filings and here is what we found:
- There were 5,393 closed transactions, up 10.4% from 4,887 in November 2023 but down 12.3% from October.
- There were 1,295 closed new homes, up 6.1% from 1,220 in November 2023 but down 13.8% from October.
- There were 4,098 closed re-sale transactions, up 11.8% from 3,667 in November 2023 but down 11.8% from October.
- The overall median sales price in October was $474,790, up 2.1% from November 2023 but down 0.04% from October.
- The new home median sales price was $504,490, down 0.1% from November 2023 and down 4.0% from October.
- The re-sale median sales price was $458,500, up 2.6% from November 2023 and up 0.8% from October.
There were 19 working days in November 2024 versus 20 in November 2023, so the 10.4% increase in closings was despite a 5% headwind. Re-sales increased more than new homes, though both new and re-sale transaction rates were better than last year.
New home market share fell to 24.4% in October 2024, and this is down from 26.7% a year ago.
Overall median prices were slightly lower than last month but higher than a year ago. Re-sale pricing moved higher while new home pricing declined.
New homes took a market share of 24.0% down from 24.4% last month and 25.0% a year ago.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 5 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Just like last week, we have 6 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month and 11 showing a decrease. However the average change in CMI over the past month is -2.1% while last week we saw -3.5%. Although the market is has deteriorated for sellers over the month, it is starting to benefit from falling supply. This is nothing to get excited about since it happens every December. But the fact that it happened again in 2024 is reassuring us that the world has not completely changed.
Fountain Hills is once again the worst performer losing 16% over the most recent month, while Paradise Valley is the best performer, rising 14%. Other cities improved by 3% or less, except for Tempe which is up 7% and has moved from a balanced market to a seller's market.
Buckeye, Surprise, Maricopa, Peoria, Cave Creek and Mesa deteriorated by 6% or more.
We have 6 cities that are seller's markets, though 4 of these are very weak seller's markets at less than 120. 6 cities are balanced and 5 are buyer's markets.
Maricopa and Buckeye remain very weak with excess inventory relative to current levels of demand.
It is clear that the market is weaker in outlying areas and at the lower end of the market. The central areas and high-end are experiencing conditions that are more favorable, though not excessively so.
Dec 1 - The contract ratio for all areas & types has dropped below 30. This signifies a cold market and at 29.6 is the lowest level seen since April 2009.
Downward pressure on prices is starting to build as more sellers try to attract a relatively small pool of buyers..
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Dec 1 - The contract ratio for all areas & types has dropped below 30. This signifies a cold market and at 29.6 is the lowest level seen since April 2009.
Downward pressure on prices is starting to build as more sellers try to attract a relatively small pool of buyers..
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Nov 28 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Like last week, we have 6 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. The average change in CMI over the past month is -3.5% while last week we saw -4.2%. The market is has deteriorated for sellers over the last month but less quickly than last week.
Fountain Hills is by far the worst performer losing 25% over the most recent month, while Paradise Valley is the best performer, rising 13%.
No other city improved by more than 5%
Buckeye, Surprise, Maricopa, Glendale, Peoria, Queen Creek and Mesa deteriorated by 6% or more.
We have 6 cities that are seller's markets, though 4 of these are very weak seller's markets at less than 118. 6 cities are balanced and 5 are buyer's markets.
Maricopa and Buckeye are very weak with excess inventory relative to current levels of demand.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Nov 26 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period July to September 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid August, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
7 cities show rising prices but 13 of them went down over the month.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Cleveland +0.58%
- Phoenix +0.28%
- Detroit +0.12%
- Las Vegas +0.09%
- Charlotte +0.08%
- New York +0.07%
- Washington +0.01%
- Chicago -0.04%
- Tampa -0.10%
- Portland -0.16%
- Minneapolis -0.18%
- Atlanta -0.22%
- Seattle -0.49%
- Miami -0.53%
- Boston -0.56%
- Dallas -0.63%
- Denver -0.80%
- San Diego -0.88%
- San Francisco -0.88%
- Los Angeles -0.90%
Phoenix has risen from 6th to 2nd place over the last month. The national average was -0.10% so Phoenix was somewhat better than this average.
California was the worst performing area.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- New York +7.5%
- Cleveland +7.1%
- Chicago +6.9%
- Las Vegas +6.7%
- Detroit +5.4%
- Washington +5.3%
- Seattle 5.2%
- San Diego +4.7%
- Los Angeles +4.6%
- Charlotte +4.6%
- Boston +4.4%
- Miami +3.9%
- Atlanta +3.4%
- Minneapolis +2.3%
- San Francisco +1.9%
- Phoenix +1.8%
- Dallas +1.1%
- Portland +1.0%
- Tampa +1.0%
- Denver +0.2%
Phoenix dropped one more place to 16th, and is still stuck in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are again showing positive price movement from one year ago with Denver, Tampa and Portland at the bottom. Cleveland, Detroit and Las Vegas are looking very strong in both tables.
The national average is +3.9% year over year. Phoenix is at less than half that percentage, so has under-performed over the last 12 year.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Nov 21 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Like last week, we have 6 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. The average change in CMI over the past month is -4.2% while last week we saw -4.8%. The market is still deteriorating for sellers but less quickly than last week.
Fountain Hills is by far the worst performer losing 28% over the most recent month and conceding first place to Chandler, which along with Cave Creek is the best performer.
Peoria has turned around and is now deteriorating while Paradise Valley has bounced back.
Buckeye, Surprise, Maricopa, Scottsdale and Mesa deteriorated by 7% or more..
Once again we have 7 cities that are seller's markets, though 5 of these are very weak seller's markets at less than 117. 5 cities are balanced and 5 are buyer's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Nov 19 - The Cromford® Market Index for all areas and types has descended to 87.1 today. While this is not far below the 90 level which defines the lower limit of a balanced market, 87.1 is the lowest level since October 25, 2010. This means the market is the most favorable to buyers (and unfavorable to sellers) in 14 years.
We are still waiting for supply to stop growing. In most years this occurs no later than Thanksgiving.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Nov 14 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
There are now 6 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. This is one more than last week with Avondale changing direction. In addition the average change in CMI over the past month is -4.8% while last week we saw -5.0%. The market is still deteriorating for sellers but slightly less quickly than last week.
Top of the table Fountain Hills is now the worst performer losing 24% over the most recent month while Buckeye, Paradise Valley and Surprise deteriorated more than 10%.
Chandler, Tempe and Cave Creek are sporting a respectable percentage gain of 6% or more, while the remaining green dots are Avondale, Peoria and Phoenix.
Once again we have 7 cities that are seller's markets, 5 that are balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets. All 5 of the cities at the bottom of the table are down by 6% or more, indicating that sellers in these areas are facing a significant disadvantage in negotiations with buyers.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Nov 12 - The overall number of active listings (excluding UCB and CCBS) has grown 34.7% over the past year. This increases to 36.9% if we eliminate out-of-area listings, which have only risen by 15.2%
Among the different dwelling types, townhomes have risen the most, up 58.5%, with patio homes up 54.8%, apartments up 48.3% and mobile homes up 46.3%. Gemini/twin homes are up 45.1% but single family - detached homes are up much less - only 33.2%. They make up by far the largest segment - 76.6% - down from 78.8% a year ago.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL

2024 is in light blue and you can see an unusual and unexpected jump over the last two days taking us almost to 22,000 listings. We have overtaken the 2016 and 2015 lines and now we have to go back 10 years to 2014 to find a year with more supply in early to mid November
We started the year in January with fewer than in January 2023, but the active listing count did not decline during the spring like it normally does. In most years it will also decline between mid November and the end of December, but the spike in the last 2 days has got me worried that something abnormal is going on.
Why are we seeing so many extra listings this late in the year? Is this the start of something new or just an insignificant short-term bump that will soon be forgotten?
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Nov 8 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
There are still the same 5 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. However the average change in CMI over the past month is -5.0% while last week we saw -4.8%. The market is deteriorating for sellers and slightly more quickly than last week.
Paradise Valley is once again the worst performer losing 22% over the most recent month but the good news is that its CMI stabilized over the past week.
Tempe and Cave Creek are sporting a respectable percentage gain of 9% or more, while the remaining green dots are Chandler, Peoria and Phoenix. Fountain Hills is down 19%, though it is still comfortably clear at the top of the table. Surprise and Buckeye remain among the weakest with downward moves over 10%. Scottsdale has weakened significantly dropping 9%, as has Goodyear.
Currently we have 7 cities that are seller's markets, 5 that are balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets. The trend remains negative. All 5 of the cities at the bottom of the table are down and sellers in these areas are facing a considerable disadvantage in negotiations with buyers.
Among the secondary cities Anthem, Arizona City, Casa Grande, Laveen, Litchfield Park and Sun City are buyer's market, while Gold Canyon, Sun City West and Sun Lakes are balanced. The sellers markets are Apache Junction, El Mirage and Tolleson.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Nov 7 - Mortgage rates reacted to the election result by moving higher despite near 100% certainty that the Federal Reserve will cut their fund rate by 0.25% tomorrow.
The typical 30 year fixed rate is 7.13% today, up from 6.62% one month ago and 6.25% two months ago. This is obviously negative for housing demand and adds more worry for sellers who are already coping with supply that is at its highest level since 2016.
The good news is that supply appears to be peaking around 21,400 to 21,500 active listings without a contract. We currently see little evidence that the count to go beyond this range before next year.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Nov 6 - There were 416 residential foreclosure notices (Notices of Trustee Sale) in Maricopa County in October. This is the highest monthly total since February 2020. For context this would have been considered a low number prior to 2020, and October did have a high number of days for trustees to file (23), but there is no denying we are seeing a rising trend in notices.
We also saw 55 foreclosure auctions (Trustee Sales), also the highest number since February 2020. Prior to 2020, there were rarely fewer than 100 auctions a month, but we are seeing a rising trend here too.
Quite a few of the notices are for hard money loans taken out by fix and flip investors who are now having trouble selling the property they borrowed against. Interest rates for hard money loans are very high. They are called hard for a reason. So borrowers can be quick to give up and allow the property to go into foreclosure rather than come up with the high monthly repayments. These are not very numerous but it shows that fix and flip investment activity can sometimes be risky as well as sometimes rewarding.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Nov 5 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's October filings and here is what we found:
- There were 6,150 closed transactions, up 11.0% from 5,543 in October 2023 and up 10.1% from September.
- There were 1,502 closed new homes, up 1.4% from 1,481 in October 2023 and up 4.2% from September.
- There were 4,648 closed re-sale transactions, up 14.4% from 4,062 in October 2023 and up 12.2% from September.
- The overall median sales price in October was $475,000, up 2.5% from October 2023 and up 0.6% from September.
- The new home median sales price was $525,506, up 3.3% from October 2023 and up 1.3% from September.
- The re-sale median sales price was $455,000, up 2.4% from October 2023 and up 1.1% from September.
There were 23 working days in October 2024 versus 22 in October 2023, so the 11.0% increase in closings was partly because of this tailwind. Re-sales jumped much more than new homes, which actually went down if you allow for the tailwind. Given the drop in new home sales we saw last month, the new home market appears to be losing speed.
In contrast, re-sale closings rose strongly compared to last month as well as year over year. This is a consequence of the spike in contract activity in September that accompanied the drop in interest rates. Unfortunately those interest rates have moved higher again, so we do not expect the trend to continue into next month. The absence of a similar spike in new home closings is probably because the average new home sales cycle is much longer. The home usually has to be completed before the transaction is recorded, unless it is a spec that has already been finished.
New home market share fell to 24.4% in October 2024, and this is down from 26.7% a year ago.
Median prices were higher than last month and also higher than a year ago. But the combined peak remains at $490,000 so we remain 3% below that level, which was achieved as long ago as May 2022.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Nov 4 - Looking deeper into the contract ratios for price ranges we see the following.
Price Range | Contract Ratio Nov 1, 2024 |
Contract Ratio Oct 1, 2023 |
Contract Ratio Nov 1, 2023 |
Annual Change |
Under $300K | 49.9 | 56.5 | 73.7 | -32% |
$300K->$350K | 45.5 | 57.2 | 66.2 | -31% |
$350K->$400K | 48.7 | 51.5 | 57.3 | -15% |
$400K->$450K | 39.0 | 47.3 | 49.5 | -21% |
$450K->$500K | 34.8 | 42.1 | 42.3 | -18% |
$500K->$600K | 32.0 | 39.2 | 38.5 | -17% |
$600K->$700K | 30.8 | 33.3 | 36.9 | -17% |
$700K->$800K | 34.0 | 36.2 | 34.4 | -1% |
$800K->$1M | 30.6 | 31.3 | 34.1 | -10% |
$1M->$1.5M | 30.4 | 31.3 | 33.3 | -9% |
$1.5M->$2M | 28.0 | 30.7 | 23.5 | +20% |
$2M->$3M | 20.0 | 26.5 | 29.5 | -32% |
$3M->$5M | 16.9 | 20.4 | 18.3 | -8% |
$5M->$7.5M | 16.3 | 14.3 | 11.3 | +44% |
$7.5M->$10M | 9.1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | -30% |
Over $10M | 3.4 | 9.8 | 10.2 | -67% |
This data is for single-family detached homes.
First we can see that the contract ratio tends to fall as we move higher in price. This is always the case, and is particularly true of the highest price points where there are always a lot of homes listed for sale compared with the very few contracts signed each month. It makes sense to compare contract ratio readings for a segment over time, but less can be learned for comparing two different segments.
The following price ranges have seen exceptionally high falls in their contract ratios:
- Under $350K
- Between $2M and $3M
- Over $7.5M and especially over $10M
We can conclude that these segments have cooled more than the overall market over the last 12 months
The following are showing an increase in their contract ratios compared with a year ago:
- $1.5M to $2M
- $5M to $7.5M
These 2 segments are actually hotter than a year ago, bucking the general trend.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Nov 1 - The market has been deteriorating for most sellers over the past eight months. Many of those sellers will probably be blaming the weak demand and lamenting stubbornly high interest rates. However a larger factor in the change is the increasing supply over those eight months.
The number of active listings without a contract has climbed from 15,574 at the beginning of February to 21,368 today. That is an increase of 37% and it means buyers have far more homes to choose from and are therefore less likely to choose the one you are selling. Sellers have to compete with each other and this is leading to frequent and substantial cuts in their list prices. They are also competing with a good supply of new built homes, which are only lightly represented in the 21,368 count. New homes are getting an unusually large share of the contracts signed in 2024.
A quick and easy way to get a handle on the market is to look at the contract ratio. At the beginning of February we had a contract ratio of 47.7 for all areas and types. This represents a moderate market - over 60 would be hot and 30 would be cold. Today that same reading is only 32.46. Not quite cold but only just above the cold zone. The last time we saw a contract ratio as low as this in November was a couple of years ago when the iBuyers were selling off their excess inventory at discounted prices. We also had more than 20,000 active listings at that time, but this count quickly dropped down to 15,000 by the following March. The current situation has a less unusual cause - we simply have more sellers than buyers - and this is leading to more unsold inventory piling up each week.
The Cromford® Market Index is only just a fraction above the buyer's market zone, so both key indicators are sending the same message. Unless there is a change in conditions that causes supply trends to turn around, we may be about to enter a period in which downward pricing pressure becomes stronger. As homes take longer to sell, more sellers lose patience and cut their prices.
Of course this could all change at any point. A significant drop in mortgage rates could bring more demand to soak up the supply. More likely is the seasonal reduction in active counts that we normally see every year after the middle of November. This seasonal effect is caused by sellers taking their homes off the market for the holiday season, coupled with a low number of new listings. It is very rare indeed that we leave a year with more active listings than we had at the start of November. This did happen in 2005 and it was a clear signal that the housing boom was entering its bust phase. Wise lenders and developers took notice of that signal, but too many were not paying attention. I very much doubt we will see the same thing in 2024, but you never know for sure.
I advise keeping a close watch on the active counts and the contract ratio over the next 8 weeks.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Oct 31 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Mortgage rates moved higher again and the typical 30-year fixed rate is now around 7.09%, the highest rate in 4 months. Buyers were hoping for something under 6% so disappointing would be an understatement.
There are 5 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. This is one more than last week because Chandler has turned around. We have 12 cities showing a decrease and the average change in CMI over the past month is -4.8% while last week we saw -4.5%. Paradise Valley is once again the worst performer losing 27% over the most recent month and heading for the buyer's market zone below 90.
Tempe and Cave Creek are sporting a respectable percentage gain of 8% or more, while the remaining green dots are Chandler, Peoria and Phoenix. After an extremely good run, Fountain Hills is moving down again, though it is still comfortably clear at the top of the table. Goodyear and Buckeye remain among the weakest with downward moves over 10%.
Currently we have 6 cities that are seller's markets, 6 that are balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets. The trend remains negative.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Oct 29 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period June to August 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid July, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
Two months ago, all 20 cities show rising prices but this month 17 of them went down over the month.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Chicago +0.43%
- Las Vegas +0.21%
- Detroit +0.15%
- Charlotte -0.02%
- Atlanta -0.03%
- Phoenix -0.10%
- Miami -0.10%
- New York -0.12%
- Washington -0.15%
- Portland -0.16%
- Minneapolis -0.17%
- Tampa -0.21%
- Cleveland -0.24%
- Boston -0.29%
- Seattle -0.45%
- Dallas -0.47%
- Los Angeles -0.66%
- San Diego -0.67%
- Denver -0.71%
- San Francisco -1.15%
Phoenix has risen from 11th to 6th place over the last month. The national average was -0.13% so Phoenix was slightly better than this average.
The only cities still rising were Chicago, Las Vegas and Detroit.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- New York +8.1%
- Las Vegas +7.3%
- Chicago +7.2%
- Cleveland +6.9%
- Detroit +6.0%
- Los Angeles +5.9%
- San Diego +5.7%
- Boston +5.5%
- Washington +5.4%
- Seattle +5.2%
- Miami +5.1%
- Charlotte +5.0%
- Atlanta +3.7%
- San Francisco +2.8%
- Phoenix +2.1%
- Minneapolis +2.%
- Tampa +1.7%
- Dallas +1.6%
- Portland +0.8%
- Denver +0.7%
Phoenix stayed at 15th place once again, and is still stuck in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are again showing positive price movement from one year ago with Denver and Portland again at the bottom. Las Vegas is looking very strong in both tables.
The national average is +4.2% year over year. Phoenix is at half that percentage, so has under-performed over the last 12 year.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Oct 26 - The third quarter of 2024 has been the quietest for multi-family permits since the second quarter of 2023. At 3,142 multi-family units across Maricopa and Pinal counties, we are down 43% from the third quarter of last year.
Year to date as of September 2024 we have seen 11,315 units. This is down 22% from the same point last year.
It seems that multi-family investors have a lost some of the enthusiasm they displayed between 2021 and 2023.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Oct 24 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The mortgage rate news has been bad over the last week with the typical 30-year fixed rate around 6.91% today, having been 6.68% last week. It is all the way back up to the level we saw in late July.
There are once again only 4 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. However it is not quite the same 4 as last week. Maricopa has dropped out and been replaced by Phoenix. We have 13 cities showing a decrease and the fact that Phoenix is not among them is a good thing, as it accounts for roughly 25% of all transactions in our area.
On the other hand, the average change in CMI over the past month is -4.5% while last week we saw -4.0%. Paradise Valley is by far the worst performer losing 30% over the most recent month.
Tempe has been joined by Cave Creek in showing a respectable percentage gain of 7% or more, while the remaining green dots are Peoria and Phoenix. Excluding PV, the largest declines are again found in the Southwest - Avondale, Goodyear and Buckeye.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Oct 19 - Listing Success Rate is one of the most revealing and reliable housing market indicators but is rarely measured other than by the Cromford® Report. In contrast average days on market is comparatively dull and meaningless yet measured and reported almost everywhere. We recommend ignoring average days on market. It might be interesting for a specific single listing, but the statistical average reveals little useful information about the state of the market.
Our month-to-date listing success rate is 71% which is nothing special, but at least it is above the long-term average of 68%. But It is also below last year at this time when we measured 75%. This tells us that the market is close to normal and not improving much. However we may not feel like it as close to normal, because between 2011 and 2022 the market stayed above normal for almost the entire period. Normal feels much worse than 2011-2022. Also we have not had much experience of normal in the last 24 years. It has mostly been better or worse than normal.
Those who were active between 2006 and 2011 will realize how much worse it was back then, when the listing success rate stayed below 61% and often fell below 40%. Far more listings failed than succeeded for a full 5 year period.
We can also see how unusually strong the market was from 2020 to 2022 when the listing success rate exceeded 90% for long periods.
Studying the data reveals that listing success is generally much higher than average for the lower end of the market and much lower for the higher end. Right now the success rate for listings of $2 million and above is 50.6% while than for those priced between $250,000 and $400,00 is around 79%. However properties priced extremely cheaply, under $200,000, have a low success rate because there is usually some serious disadvantages causing them to be priced so far below the median home price. Today we measure a 56% success rate for these.
Be careful of paying too much attention to listing success rate when you are looking at a small sample size, such as a single ZIP code or small city. These numbers fluctuate wildly and provide little useful information. The same caution applies to a any small area such as a subdivision. You need a decent amount of data to apply statistical principles.
Over the past 90 days we can rank the large cities as follows:
- Buckeye 79.5%
- Peoria 77.9%
- Chandler 77.7%
- Queen Creek 77.1%
- Gilbert 75.9%
- Avondale 75.9%
- Glendale 73.7%
- Maricopa 74.5%
- Surprise 72.3%
- Mesa 72.6%
- Fountain Hills 72.2%
- Tempe 71.9%
- Goodyear 71.2%
- Phoenix 71.1%
- Scottsdale 65.7%
- Cave Creek 60.8%
- Paradise Valley 39.3%
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Oct 17 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
On September 11, the typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.11% according to Mortgage News Daily. Today it stands at 6.68%. This was not what most people were expecting and it has taken a lot of enthusiasm away from potential buyers and given that we have a lot more sellers than this time last year, most places are seeing the balance in the market move slowly in favor of buyers.
There are now only 4 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. This is down from 5 last week. We have 13 cities showing a decrease and that includes the two largest cities - Phoenix and Mesa. However Phoenix is only down 1% and is looking relatively strong.
The average change in CMI over the past month is -4.0%. Last week we saw -3.3%. After a strong period a month ago, Paradise Valley has quickly turned around and is the worst performer losing 23% over the most recent month.
Tempe, a pretty small market, is now the only city showing a respectable percentage gain of 9%, while the remaining green dots are Cave Creek. Surprise and Maricopa. These 3 are up 4% or less. Other than PV, the largest declines are to be found in the Southwest - Avondale, Goodyear and Buckeye.
7 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110, though 4 of these are below 120, so they only favor sellers by a small margin. We have 5 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets. Only 1 city (Fountain Hills) is still over 140, and 2 are now below 70.
Among the secondary cities we see major weakness in Anthem, Arizona City, Casa Grande, Laveen, Litchfield Park, Sun City and Sun City West. Relatively strong is El Mirage.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Oct 13 - The rise in demand that we saw for a short while during September is starting to peter out and the number of listings under contract is now somewhat lower than during late September. Meanwhile active supply continues to grow in line with seasonal patterns and this is slowly driving more negotiation power into the hands of buyers.
Unless the trend changes direction we are headed toward a buyer's market as the CMI has already dropped below 94.
Normally we would anticipate supply to rise throughout October and well into November but start to fade after Thanksgiving and close the year noticeably lower.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Oct 10 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Buyers are still gaining negotiation power as supply rises faster than demand.
There are now only 5 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. This is down from 6 a week ago. We have 12 cities showing a decrease and that includes the two largest cities - Phoenix and Mesa.
The average change in CMI over the past month is -3.3%. Last week we saw -2.7%. After a strong period a month ago, Paradise Valley has quickly turned around and is one of the main decliners.
Surprise is now the only city showing a respectable percentage gain of 7% or more, though it is still a buyer's market. The remaining green dots are Fountain Hills, Glendale, Cave Creek and Tempe, but they are up 3% or less. The largest declines are to be found in Avondale, Chandler, Paradise Valley and Goodyear. A positive sign for sellers is that Phoenix is still just above the balanced zone below 110.
8 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110, though 4 of these are below 120. We have 4 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets. Only 1 city is still over 140, but 3 are below 70.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Oct 8 - The majority of people thought that mortgage rates would go down after the Federal Reserve cut their base rate 3 weeks ago. The majority have been wrong so far. Last Friday's jobs report suggested that the USA economy was stronger than expected and added more upward momentum to mortgage interest rates.
We now have the highest rates in 2 months with the 30 year fixed at around 6.62%.
Meanwhile active supply increased 3.7% over the past week, so buyer's have more homes to choose from. The market trend in most areas is still favoring buyers over sellers.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Oct 6 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's September filings and here is what we found:
- There were 5,584 closed transactions, down 5.3% from 5,896 in September 2023 and down 6.4% from August.
- There were 1,441 closed new homes, down 11.3% from 1,624 in September 2023 and down 0.8% from August.
- There were 4,143 closed re-sale transactions, down 3.0% from 4,272 in September 2023 and down 8.2% from August.
- The overall median sales price in September was $471,995, up 4.9% from September 2023 and up 0.4% from August.
- The re-sale median sales price was $450,000, up 2.3% from September 2023 but unchanged from August.
- The new home median sales price was $518,792, up 8.3% from September 2023 and up 1.0% from August.
There were 21 working days in September 2024 versus 20 in September 2023, so the 5.3% drop in closings is actually worse than it looks. We would expect a 5.0% increase if the same closing rate per day were applied.
New home closings fell harder year over year with a drop of 11.3%, while resales fell only 0.8%. However closing volumes were poor across the board in September.
New home market share rose to a strong 25.8% in September 2024, but this is down from 27.5% a year ago.
Prices bounced back a little compared with August. The combined peak remains at $490,000 so we remain 3.7% below that level achieved in May 2022.
The general picture is of low volumes but stable pricing. The outlook is for volume to improve a bit and for prices to remain stable with a slight downward tendency due to the slight excess of supply over demand.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Oct 3 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Buyers are still gaining negotiation power as supply rises faster than demand. The highest price ranges are also now joining the trend as many high-end listings are added, some having been taken off the market during the summer.
There are now only 6 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. This is down from 7 a week ago. We have 11 cities showing a decrease and that includes the two largest cities - Phoenix and Mesa.
The average change in CMI over the past month is -2.7%. Last week we saw -1.9%. Paradise Valley has quickly turned around and is no longer helping.
Surprise, Glendale and Fountain Hills are showing respectable percentage gain of 6% or more. The remaining green dots are Scottsdale, Cave Creek and Tempe, but they are up 3% or less. The largest declines are to be found in Avondale, Chandler and Goodyear. A positive sign for sellers is that Phoenix has stabilized and is not in the balance zone below 110
8 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110, though 3 of these are below 120 with Gilbert dropping below 110. We have 4 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets. Only 1 city is still over 140, but 3 are now below 70.
It is a good sign that demand is rising as interest rates get more attractive. However it is always important to consider supply as well as demand and so far the lower rates seem to have brought out more sellers than buyers. This means the market is getting busier but less favorable for sellers.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Oct 1 - If you have been watching the listings under contract count, as we suggested you should a few weeks ago, you will have noticed a sharp increase over the past 4 weeks.

We are up almost 14% over this time last year. We have not seen a significant year over year increase for well over 3 years, so this is a cause for celebration.
The fourth quarter of 2024 should see an increase in closing rates which is good news for agents and everyone else who works in the industry.
While this is also good news for sellers, it is heavily dampened by the fact that the supply of active listings is up 52% over last year. So there is no upward pressure on pricing except in a few isolated segments, such as the ultra-luxury market. However even that comparison is getting better, since it was 62% at the end of July.
©2023 Cromford Associat LL
Sep 26 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The negative trend that started 3 weeks ago continues and buyers are gaining negotiation power, though the trend remains mild and excludes the highest price ranges.
There are again 7 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. We also have 10 cities showing a decrease and that includes the two largest cities - Phoenix and Mesa.
The average change in CMI over the past month is -1.9%. Last week we saw -1.3%. The average would be much lower if it were not for Paradise Valley which is up sharply over last month, though by much less than last week.
Fountain Hills is also showing a respectable percentage gain of 9% with Glendale and Surprise coming in at a surprising 6% and 4% respectively. The remaining green dots are relatively unimpressive: Scottsdale, Cave Creek and Tempe are all up over the last month, but not by much. The largest declines are to be found in Avondale, Chandler, Phoenix and Peoria.
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110, though 3 of these are below 120 and Gilbert and Phoenix are only seller's markets by the skin of their teeth. We have 3 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets. Only 1 city is still over 140, because PV has lost some of its steam.
Supply is rising faster than demand so this is favorable to buyers. The fact that both are rising is favorable to agents.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 24 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period May to July 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid June, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
Last month all 20 cities show rising prices but this month 8 of them went down.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Cleveland +1.10%
- Las Vegas +0.88%
- New York +0.52%
- Chicago +0.45%
- Detroit +0.39%
- Miami +0.31%
- Charlotte +0.23%
- Atlanta +0.15%
- Minneapolis +0.14%
- Washington +0.11%
- Phoenix +0.09%
- Boston +0.03%
- Portland -0.01%
- Seattle -0.05%
- Tampa -0.10%
- Dallas -0.11%
- Los Angeles -0.28%
- Denver -0.40%
- San Diego -0.58%
- San Francisco -1.09%
Phoenix has risen from 15th to 11th places over the last month. The national average was +0.10% so Phoenix was extremely close to this average.
The North, Las Vegas and Southeast remain strongest.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- New York +8.8%
- Las Vegas +8.2%
- Los Angeles +7.2%
- San Diego +7.2%
- Cleveland +7.0%
- Chicago +6.7%
- Detroit +6.6%
- Boston +6.5%
- Miami +6.5%
- Seattle +6.0%
- Charlotte +5.8%
- Washington +5.5%
- Atlanta +4.5%
- San Francisco +3.4%
- Phoenix +2.9%
- Tampa +2.2%
- Minneapolis +2.0%
- Dallas +1.9%
- Denver +1.3%
- Portland +0.8%
Phoenix stayed at 15th place, and is still stuck in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are again showing positive price movement from one year ago with Denver and Portland once again at the bottom. Las Vegas is looking very strong in both tables.
The national average is +5.0% year over year. Phoenix is well below that percentage, and in a similar situation to the last five months.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 23 - Over the last 6 months the average sales price per square foot chart has been full of sound and fury, signifying nothing:

Wild gyrations taking us up almost to $310 and then down to $278 have suggested a lot more stress and strain than is really happening. We are now back at $292, close to where we started at $296. The fact that the CMI is under 100 explains why we are seeing a slight downward drift overall.
The main cause of these drastic moves is the lumpiness and seasonality of the high-end luxury market. These sales can boost the $/SF when luxury transactions are numerous and crater it when they disappear.
The median sales price is largely unaffected by the high-end because there are relatively few sales at the top end. The median sales price chart has a similar pattern, but the peak was $453,393 and the trough $435,000. The variation is only 4% from top to bottom, whereas the average $/SF moved by over 10%.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 19 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The negative trend that started 2 weeks ago has gained strength and buyers are still gaining negotiation power, though the trend remains mild and concentrated in the lower and middle price ranges.
There are again 7 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. We also have 10 cities showing a decrease and that includes the two largest cities - Phoenix and Mesa.
The average change in CMI over the past month is -1.3%. Last week we saw -0.7%. The average would be much lower if it were not for Paradise Valley which is up very sharply over last month.
Fountain Hills is also showing a respectable percentage gain of 10%. The remaining green dots are relatively unimpressive: Buckeye, Scottsdale, Cave Creek Surprise and Glendale are all up over the last month, but not by much. The largest declines are to be found in Avondale, Chandler, Phoenix, Peoria and Maricopa.
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110, though 3 of these are below 120. We have 3 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets. 2 cities are now over 140, both dominated by more expensive houses. The luxury market favors sellers much more than the rest of the market.
Although there are some small signs of improving demand, supply is growing faster, so the balance is mostly tilting in a direction favorable to buyers.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 18 - Well the Federal Reserve didn't hold back and knocked 50 basis points off their benchmark interest rate.
Judging by the fact that you could not get into the website Mortgage News Daily, this sparked a lot of interest in what this action might do to mortgage rates.
Surprise, surprise - they actually went UP slightly. This is because mortgage rates are not based on the federal funds rate but tend to be controlled by the 10 year Treasury bond yield.
Mortgage rates had already fallen in anticipation of a Federal Reserve cut, and Powell's comments were seen as less optimistic than had been expected.
Is it any wonder that people are notoriously wrong when they attempt to forecast interest rates.
The rate cut did affect the dollar as you would expect, which dropped against most foreign currencies as it is now less attractive to hold US dollars. This makes homes in Arizona a little cheaper for foreign buyers.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 17 - We are now seeing definite signs of a small improvement in demand, no doubt influenced by the lower prevailing mortgage rates.
The number of listings under contract is up 2.5% compared with a year ago. The last time we saw a year over year increase was back in January and it only last a mere 2 days. We have to go all the way back to February 2022 for the previous example.
They are also up 4.7% over the last month. This is not huge but it is a sign that transaction volumes are no longer getting worse..
Before sellers get too excited it should be pointed out that active listings are also rising, so it would seem that many of these extra buyers are also sellers. This means it is the move-up sector that is showing signs of life. Because of this, the Cromford® Market Index is still going down.
The good news for agents is that these small changes portend larger numbers of transactions going forward. As interest rates fall, this little trend should in theory get stronger.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 15 - The City Ranking Table lists the largest 40 cities or towns in Central Arizona by their annual average price per square foot. We use the annual average to avoid the large variation that occurs when we use a monthly average, This leads to more consistent results.

As you would expect, Paradise Valley is consistently top of this table, and it has opened up a strong lead over Scottsdale over the past 3 years.
You can tell how well the luxury market has performed compared with the rest of the market because both PV and Scottsdale are up 8.5% year over year, the highest percentages in the table. Not far behind are Fountain Hills and Rio Verde. Carefree is falling behind a bit with only 2.8%, but beware because this is a small market and therefore subject to volatile numbers even in an annual average.
It is also clear that central locations have performed better than remoter ones. Phoenix is up 8%, the third best return in the top 40 and the highest performing market outside the Northeast Valley. Also doing very well are Youngtown (very much not a luxury area) and Gilbert.
The Southwest Valley is weaker than average with Avondale, Goodyear, Laveen and Litchfield Park all below 3%, though Tolleson is close to the center of the pack.
The worst performing areas have tended to be in outer locations, including Coolidge, Arizona City, Tonopah, Eloy, Florence, Casa Grande, Gold Canyon and Apache Junction.
The 55+ areas have struggled a bit with both Sun City and Sun City West at 1.7%, though Sun Lakes is middle-of-the-road at 4.6%
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 14 - Every election year people ask if the presidential election has a significant effect on the housing market. The short answer is no.
There are always a few buyers who loudly claim they are deferring any home purchase decision until they find out the result of the election. These people are a tiny proportion of the total, insignificant in the overall context. In fact if we examine the volume of sales in the 5 months leading up to a November election we find that
- in 2004 and 2020 home sales were stronger than normal non-election years
- in 2012 and 2016 home sales were in line with normal
- in 2000 and 2008 home sales were weaker than normal non-election years
Notice that each line includes one win for the Republican nominee and one win for the Democratic candidate, so sales volume does not even seem to correlate to who wins.
The weaker years (2000 and 2008) correspond to recessions which are more likely to cause weaker home sales than elections.
The housing market is affected by life decisions and events like couples deciding to live together, have children, separate, job moves and a death in the family. Politics has much less impact than politicians would have you believe. The state of the economy and taxation rules will have a significant impact on the market. But predicting how the economy will behave and what taxation changes might come into effect after a president's election proposals have been heavily modified by congress is fraught with risk. Pundits will predict, but no-one is good at this forecasting and results rarely match what is predicted. Unexpected events like epidemics have a more dramatic effect on the housing market.
So the long answer is also no.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 12 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The negative trend that started last week has continued and buyers are gaining an advantage, though the trend remains mild.
There are 7 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, one fewer than last week. We also have 10 cities showing a decrease and that includes the two largest cities - Phoenix and Mesa.
The average change in CMI over the past month is -0.7%. Last week we saw +0.1%. The average would be much lower if it were not for Paradise Valley which is up sharply over last month.
Cave Creek and Fountain Hills are also showing decent percentage gains. In addition, Buckeye, Scottsdale, Queen Creek and Glendale are all up over the last month, but not by much. The largest declines are to be found in Avondale, Chandler, Phoenix, Peoria, Maricopa and Tempe.
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110, though 3 of these are below 120. We have 3 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets. Only 1 city l remain over 140 while 3 remain under 75.
Maricopa has taken over bottom place from Buckeye.
Despite this uninspiring picture, there is one sign of life. The total number of listings under contract has managed to creep over 7,300 for the first time since August 29. We are up 1.5% from this time last month and only down 1.2% from a year ago. These percentages are slowly improving at last and it appears the lower mortgage rates may be finally bringing a few more buyers out of hiding.
Of course, many of these buyers will have to sell their existing house before they buy a new one, so it is natural that an increase in active listings comes first.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 10 - Although they are still at very low levels compared to the long-term average, we are starting to see a few more pre-foreclosure listings. You will miss a lot of these if you rely on the MLS listing information. A home may be listed for sale well before a Notice of Trustee Sale is filed, but when it is filed we will catch that in our daily clean-up process and add a Pre-foreclosure tag to the listing. Listing agents often forget to do that (or decide not to).
At the moment we have around 100 pre-foreclosures in our database, but ARMLS is showing only 50 or so. Whether they are Short Sales or not is open to interpretation. Most homes will have some positive equity but it is certainly possible that it will be eliminated by costs incurred during close of escrow.
It is hard to compute the total amount of debt attached to a property. Even a lender can sometimes not do that, because there may be more than one loan if a HELOC or other loan has been taken out. If there are late payments, then these payments plus penalties and interest will need to be added to the debt.
100 pre-foreclosures is still a tiny number across 20,000 active listings. Back in 2010 we had some 19,000 pre-foreclosure and short sale listings. Levels of distress are low, but for those homeowners involved it is very real. The lack of significant appreciation over the last 2 years means negative equity can pop-up for anyone whose circumstances change or who overpaid for a property. We see some listings that are unsold fix-and-flips and that hard money interest can build up quickly if the home fails to sell quickly. A hard money lender will quickly foreclose to safeguard their position if the investor fails to make the monthly payments.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 8 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's August filings and here is what we found:
- There were 5,936 closed transactions, down 9.0% from 6,556 in August 2023 and down 6.2% from July.
- There were 1,453 closed new homes, down 9.6% from 1,608 in August 2023 but up 6.4% from July.
- There were 4,510 closed re-sale transactions, down 8.9% from 4,948 in August 2023 and down 9.5% from July.
- The overall median sales price in August was $470,000, up 2.4% from August 2023 and up 0.5% from July..
- The re-sale median sales price was $450,000, up 1.1% from August 2023 but unchanged from July.
- The new home median sales price was $513,633, up 2.7% from August 2023 and up 1.5% from July.
There were 22 working days in August 2024 versus 23 in August 2023, so the 9.0% drop in closings is more than we would expect from the 4.3% decrease in the number of working days. New home closings fell harder year over year with a drop of 9.6%, while resales fell 8.9%, more than double the change in working days. So closing volumes are poor across the board.
New home market share rose to 24.4% in August 2024 from July, but this is slightly down from 24.5% a year ago.
Prices bounced back a little compared with July. The combined peak remains at $490,000 so we remain 4% below that level achieved in May 2022.
Overall we see an annual rise in the median sales price of 2.4%, which is not far from the current rate of inflation.
The general picture is of low volumes but stable pricing.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 5 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The trend has reversed and things are deteriorating again for sellers, albeit only gently.
There are 8 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. But we also have 9 cities showing a decrease and that includes the two largest cities - Phoenix and Mesa.
The average change in CMI over the past month is +0.1%. Last week we saw +1.2%. .
Cave Creek, Paradise Valley and Buckeye are showing the largest percentage gains. In addition, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Gilbert, Queen Creek and Goodyear all up over the last month. The largest declines are no longer concentrated across the whole of the Southeast Valley, though Tempe and Chandler are still down 10%. Phoenix and Avondale have weakened substantially.
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110, though 4 of these are below 120. We have 3 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets. 2 cities still remain over 140 while 3 remain under 75.
Paradise Valley is up sharply but it is a very different market from the other 16. Fountain Hills has opened up a large lead at the top of the table. At the other end, Maricopa is threatened by Buckeye where the market has improved over the last four weeks.
Outside the single-family market and in the smaller cities, demand remains poor while supply is growing and the Cromford® Market Index for the whole market has slipped below 99.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 2 - The supply of active listings without a contract turned around in August and we now have 5.5% more supply than we had available at the beginning of August. We are also up 57% compared with September 1, 2023. The short-term increase is not huge but it is intriguing as we rarely see this in August. It is usually September when supply starts to rise.
You might imagine that the decline in mortgage interest rates over the last month would have increased demand and reduced supply, but the housing market often responds unexpectedly to interest rates and compared with a month ago, demand is down slightly while supply is up. It is not up across the board however. In the single-family detached luxury sector above $3 million, we have 4% fewer listings active than a month ago (though 20% more than a year ago). There is one particular segment where supply has increased by almost 18% during August - single family detached homes priced between $300K and $350K. This sticks out like a sore thumb with more than double the increase of any other price segment. I had to dive in to find out more.
If we home in on the geography, we find the biggest increase in Maricopa rather than Pinal, which rules out new homes being the culprit. The areas that have grown supply the most during August are Glendale and West Phoenix. In fact almost all of the increase happened over just 11 days between August 15 and August 26 and was concentrated in the least expensive ZIP codes of the inner West Valley. These homes tend to be older than average with many built in the 1950s or 1960s. There is no sign of increased distress causing the surge in listings. Active single-family listings in this specific area are up 32% across all price ranges and even more between $300K and $350K.
Something is going on in the Inner West Valley. I wonder if this supply boost is caused by sellers listing their homes because they want to upgrade to larger and newer properties once interest rates come down further. They probably feel the need to have a buyer in hand before making an offer on the home they want.
Other theories are available.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 29 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
There are 8 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, down from 9 last week. We also have 8 cities showing a decrease and 1 that is barely changed. .
The average change in CMI over the past month is +1.2%. Last week we saw +0.7%. So there's that.
Cave Creek, Paradise Valley, Buckeye and Fountain Hills are showing the largest percentage gains. In addition, Scottsdale, Gilbert, Maricopa and Goodyear all up over the last month. The largest declines are still concentrated in the Southeast Valley (Tempe, Chandler), but Avondale has weakened substantially too.
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110. We have 3 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets. 2 cities still remain over 140 while 3 remain under 75.
One concern is that the cities with the most positive change are relatively small. The largest markets like Phoenix and Mesa are still declining and Scottsdale is only showing a minor gain of 2%. This means our 1.2% average gain is not as significant as it might otherwise be.
While the positive trend exists, it is still so weak that a breath of wind could blow it over.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 20 - Another way in which we can get distortions in the pricing averages is when the mix between Pinal County and Maricopa County changes dramatically.
Comparing April with July 2024, the number of closed sales in Pinal County dropped by only 0.7% from 877 to 871. But the closed sales in Maricopa County fell by more than 15% from 5,737 to 4,876. Because Pinal is much less expensive than Maricopa on average, the swerve in favor of Pinal brought pricing measurements substantially lower. The average $/SF in Pinal fell just 3.1% between April and July, but 6.9% in Maricopa and 7.2% for both counties combined.
These mix effects can be confusing and tend to happen during the third quarter of each year. The overall average drops sharply, but the fall in individual subsegments tends to be less dramatic.
In Pinal County, a much higher percentage of overall sales are new builds. Despite being brand new, these homes have a low average price per sq. ft because more of them are further out on land that was purchased relatively cheaply by the developer. We can see from the Tableau charts on Cromford® Public that new homes are cheaper than resales on a price per sq. ft. basis. This seems counter-intuitive, and it is not the case when you look at a small area. But taken across Greater Phoenix as a whole, new home $/SF is clearly lower then re-sale $/SF. This is because the distribution of new homes is not uniform. Most of them are going up on much cheaper lots in locations with more affordable pricing.
We have to put up with these distortions in the market between June and August and things don't really get back to the normal mix until the second half of September.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 27 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period April to June 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid May, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
All 20 cities show rising prices for last month.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Detroit +1.13%
- Chicago +0.95%
- Las Vegas +0.84%
- Cleveland +0.76%
- Atlanta +0.72%
- Boston +0.68%
- Miami +0.66%
- San Diego +0.65%
- Minneapolis +0.63%
- Los Angeles +0.61%
- Seattle +0.59%
- Washington +0.58%
- New York +0.56%
- Charlotte +0.48%
- Phoenix +0.42%
- Dallas +0.39%
- Denver +0.25%
- Tampa +0.21%
- Portland +0.13%
- San Francisco +0.07%
Phoenix has risen from 19th to 15th places over the last month. The national average was +0.47% so Phoenix prices rose slightly less than the national average.
The North, Las Vegas and Atlanta remain strongest.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- New York +9.0%
- San Diego +8.7%
- Las Vegas +8.5%
- Los Angeles +8.2%
- Chicago +7.0%
- Detroit +7.0%
- Miami +6.9%
- Cleveland +6.7%
- Seattle 6.7%
- Boston +6.6%
- Charlotte +6.4%
- Washington +6.0%
- Atlanta +5.1%
- San Francisco +4.3%
- Phoenix +3.7%
- Tampa +3.1%
- Dallas +2.3%
- Minneapolis +2.0%
- Denver +1.9%
- Portland +0.8%
Phoenix dropped one place to 15th, and is still stuck in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are again showing positive price movement from one year ago with Denver and Portland once again at the bottom. Las Vegas is looking strong in both tables.
The national average is +5.4% year over year. Phoenix is below that percentage, and in a similar situation to the last four months.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 25 - 2024 has seen a rebound in the number of single-family building permits issued in Maricopa and Pinal counties.
So far (until the end of July) we have counted 18,498 single-family units which is up more than 40% from the same period last year. However it is not quite up to the booming levels of 2021 and 2022 when we counted 21,796 and 19,748 respectively. The re-sale market has been much weaker than the new home market and year-to-date closing volumes are down from 2023 - 45,937 as of the end of June 2024, which is down 4% from the same period last year. We do not often see the new home and re-sale markets so disconnected from each other.
Homebuilders are clearly optimistic about the market, especially given the Federal Reserve positioning on reduced interest rates. Many of the publicly traded developers saw there stock prices hit all-time highs over the last week.
Permits are up 39% in Maricopa county and up 43% in Pinal county. They are also up almost 38% for Arizona's 13 other counties.
The year-to-date permit counts by location are as follows:
- Unincorporated Pinal County 2,849
- Phoenix 2,331
- Surprise 2,039
- Buckeye 1,484
- Unincorporated Maricopa County 1,205
- Queen Creek 1,112
- Peoria 1,098
- Goodyear 1,092
- Maricopa 883
- Casa Grande 722
This list is very different from the re-sale market. Note that Mesa, Glendale, Scottsdale, Gilbert and Chandler didn't make the top 10.
The failure of San Tan Valley to incorporate means we have an extremely large number of new homes going into locations that are not managed by a city or town, but just the county administration. There is now a renewed effort to incorporate and a vote is scheduled for later this year to determine if this effort can proceed.
Florence is growing fast and is now receiving more permits than Gilbert and threatening to overtake Scottsdale.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 22 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
We are seeing more positive signs from a seller's perspective. There are 9 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, up from 8 last week. We have 8 cities showing a decrease. That is a small majority going up and this is the first time we seen this situation since May 9.
The change is still painfully slow but it is real. The trend has reversed but is yet to gather any significant momentum.
The average change in CMI over the past month is +0.7%, our first positive change since May 23. Last week we saw -0.1%.
The market is starting to improve for sellers overall and I hope buyers took good advantage of their opportunity to negotiate harder over the last 3 months.
Cave Creek, Paradise Valley, Buckeye and Fountain Hills are showing the largest percentage gains. In addition, Scottsdale, Gilbert, Maricopa, Goodyear and Peoria are all up over the last month. The largest declines are still concentrated in the Southeast Valley (Tempe, Chandler and Mesa), but Avondale has weakened substantially too..
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110. We have 3 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets. 3 cities still remain over 140 while 3 remain under 75.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 20 - Another way in which we can get distortions in the pricing averages is when the mix between Pinal County and Maricopa County changes dramatically.
Comparing April with July 2024, the number of closed sales in Pinal County dropped by only 0.7% from 877 to 871. But the closed sales in Maricopa County fell by more than 15% from 5,737 to 4,876. Because Pinal is much less expensive than Maricopa on average, the swerve in favor of Pinal brought pricing measurements substantially lower. The average $/SF in Pinal fell just 3.1% between April and July, but 6.9% in Maricopa and 7.2% for both counties combined.
These mix effects can be confusing and tend to happen during the third quarter of each year. The overall average drops sharply, but the fall in individual subsegments tends to be less dramatic.
In Pinal County, a much higher percentage of overall sales are new builds. Despite being brand new, these homes have a low average price per sq. ft because more of them are further out on land that was purchased relatively cheaply by the developer. We can see from the Tableau charts on Cromford® Public that new homes are cheaper than resales on a price per sq. ft. basis. This seems counter-intuitive, and it is not the case when you look at a small area. But taken across Greater Phoenix as a whole, new home $/SF is clearly lower then re-sale $/SF. This is because the distribution of new homes is not uniform. Most of them are going up on much cheaper lots in locations with more affordable pricing.
We have to put up with these distortions in the market between June and August and things don't really get back to the normal mix until the second half of September.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 17 - We have mentioned many times that the high-end market tends to drop off substantially during the Summer months, causing all sorts of distortion in market averages, especially those related to price.
To illustrate how this happens, let us look at the figures for April versus July and compare the Northeast Valley with the rest of the Greater Phoenix market. We know that the bulk of luxury homes are situated in the Northeast Valley, which we will define as Carefree, Cave Creek, Fort McDowell, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, Rio Verde and Scottsdale. We are going to add Phoenix 85016 and 85018 and exclude Scottsdale 85257.
For this area the April single-family detached sales count was 662 and the July count was 440. This represents a unit volume decline of almost 34%. The average price per square foot also fell from $558.56 to $505.70, a decline of 9.5%.
For the rest of Greater Phoenix excluding the area defined above, the single-family detached sales count for April was 4,631 and the average $/SF was $262.36. In July the sales count was 4,267 and the $/SF was $254.26. So the sales declined only 8% and the $/SF only went down by 3%.
When we look at Greater Phoenix as a whole we see the weak contribution from luxury sales dragging down the $/SF all the way from $313.17 to $289.28, a drop of 7.6%, more than twice the decline seen in the market outside the Northeast.
Naturally we expect high-end sales to recover once the temperatures cool off, which will mean their contribution to the average $/sf will grow and average pricing will probably recover its stability.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 15 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This table is once again looking less negative than the week before. We have 8 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, up from 7 last week. We have 9 cities showing a decrease.
However the change is painfully slow and this makes it a frustrating time for market watchers.
The average change in CMI over the past month is -0.1%, a much smaller decline than the -1.8% we saw last week and continuing a positive trend that started four weeks ago. This means we are on the cusp of seeing the market start to improve for sellers overall.
Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, Buckeye and Paradise Valley are showing the largest percentage gains. In addition, Scottsdale, Maricopa, Goodyear and Peoria are all up over the last month, only by a tiny bit in the latter case. The largest declines are still concentrated in the Southeast Valley (Tempe, Chandler and Mesa).
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110. We have 3 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets. 3 cities still remain over 140 while 3 remain under 75.
Things have stopped getting worse and maybe about to improve. However there is little sign of excitement and a lot of waiting for something significant to happen.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 10 - The following observation was written in response to an interesting question from our long-term subscriber John Gluch.
Days on Market is a very flawed measure that I do not pay very much attention to. There is little relationship between DOM and the Cromford® Market Index, which is designed to be a leading measure. DOM is a trailing measure and often points in the wrong direction for a long time compared with other indicators.
There are a couple of big reasons for DOM being less than useful:
- Many agents will perform contortions to try to get their DOM counts reset to zero and the MLS has struggled to counter those measures in an evolutionary tug of war.
- A significant percentage of agents place their listings in Active – UCB status when they get a contract signed. In the distant past this would normally be pending. This causes DOM to continue to accumulate and distorts the measurement in the other direction.
We prefer a different measure which is agent days to contract acceptance. This is shown in a Tableau chart below:
https://cromfordreport.com/member-only/tableau/new-contracts-vs-back-on-market.html
It is still flawed but not nearly as much. The latest number is 36 which is up sharply from 20 just 12 months ago. In fact, it is the highest reading for August since 2014, which was a particularly weak period for housing. This means listings are taking longer to get a contract accepted than in any August in the last 10 years. This may well match your current experience as an agent.
This measure tends to be influenced by seasonality with December and January producing high values, which need to be treated with caution.
When supply and demand are in balance, the CMI is around 100, but this happens much less than you might think. Over the past 24 years, we have tended to be mostly in a seller’s market and when we are not, we often have a buyer’s market. In buyer’s markets DOM values get very high, even well into the hundreds of days. Since we are rarely in a balanced market, sellers experiencing them tend to think they are worse than balanced, because they feel “worse than normal”. They ARE worse than normal because a normal market is unbalanced in favor of sellers. Balance and normal are not the same thing.
The last time we had a CMI below 100 was 4Q 2022. Average DOM for closed listings was then between 51 and 68. Today we are at 67, so in the same ballpark.
DOM for active listings is always much higher than DOM for closed listings because the active listings contain a higher percentage of luxury homes than the closed listings. These luxury homes spend much longer in active status and distort the reading to the upside.
Currently, I think a lot of buyers are in limbo, waiting for mortgage rates to fall further, as that is what all the media pundits are saying will happen later this year.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 8 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This table is starting to look a lot less negative. We have 7 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, up from 5 last week.
The average change in CMI over the past month is -1.8%, a much smaller decline than the -4.4% we saw last week and continuing a positive trend that started three weeks ago. If we look at the change over the past week, we see an average of +0.4%. That's right - the average CMI went up slightly from August 1 to August 8.
Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, Scottsdale are showing the largest percentage gains, so it seems clear that the top end of the market is leading the resistance against the weaker market. Maricopa, Buckeye, Goodyear and Paradise Valley are all up over the last month. The largest declines are still concentrated in the Southeast Valley (Tempe, Gilbert, Chandler and Mesa). After a long stay at the top, Chandler has weakened dramatically and looks likely to be overtaken by Avondale and fall into third place.
8 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110. We have 4 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets. 3 cities still remain over 140 and Scottsdale is making an attempt to join them.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 6 - Buyer's agent commissions are a hot topic right now (apologies if I am twisting the knife). As I am based in the UK these days, some subscribers might be interested to learn what fees a UK buyer's agent charges in a system where the sellers will never pay for a buyer's agent.
First it must be stated that buyer's agents are rare in the UK. The vast majority of transactions are conducted without the buyer having representation from an agent. They are expected to find a property and negotiate the price all on their own. There are plenty of estate agents, but they only help sellers and they are paid by the sellers from the proceeds of sale. They are clearly motivated to get the highest possible price in the shortest possible time. There are no obligations to disclose defects. From an integrity perspective, seller's agents are respected about as much as used car salespeople and politicians.
However there are some professional buyer's agents. They are generally used by clients who are looking for an expensive property - at least £500,000 and probably over £1 million (about $1,280,000). Their clients may be looking for something hard to find because it is unusual, or they may have no time to look for themselves. This is especially true if they are buying from outside the country. They usually operate in and around London. It is very hard to find a buyer's agent that will cover the more remote areas, such as where I live in County Durham.
It is up to the buyer and their agent to agree their commission. It will probably be different in every case. If I use one example - Henry Pryor & Co., their website states that they offer the following options:
- A "pocket agent service" for a one-time charge of £1,000 ($1,280) including sales tax (VAT at 20%) - this is for response to questions and advice on how to negotiate with the seller. No active search is conducted.
- A "buying service" fee as follows:
- £600 per week pay-as-you-go for as long as it takes
- A fixed up-front fee of £14,400 even for properties valued at £50 million or more
- A one-time retainer of £2,400 plus 3% of the purchase price payable.
Henry Pryor discourages clients from using the third option. I can see why. Apart from probably ending up being more costly, it seems patently silly for a buyer's agent to be paid more if the buyer pays a higher price. You want your buyer's agent to be motivated to get the price as low as possible once you have found the desired property. That is one of the fundamental moral problems with the old system where selling agents offer a percentage of the price to a cooperating buyer's agent. The harder they work to negotiate a good deal for the buyer, the less they get paid in commission. You can see why the DOJ has problems with this system.
Important! Henry Pryor operates "dynamic pricing" which means their charges go up when they are very busy and they go down when times are quiet. This is to try to balance supply and demand for their agents (a bit like Uber surge pricing). Fees are documented in writing at the start of the process.
Personally, I think many UK buyers act foolishly if they don't use a buyer's agent, at least for a property over £1 million. The professional advice may prevent you buying a home with a fatal flaw and their negotiation experience means they can almost certainly save you more money than you will be paying in fees, unless you are already a superbly skilled negotiator with extensive real estate experience.
Buyer's agents can often find properties that are not yet on the market. This is extremely hard for buyers to do without an agent.
An advantage of being a buyer's agent in the UK is that your integrity is generally respected by all sides.
I hope this stimulates some ideas for agents in Arizona.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 3 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's July filings and here is what we found:
- There were 6,360 closed transactions, up 4.6% from 6,081 in July 2023 but down 4.1% from June.
- There were 1,378 closed new homes, up 1.9% from 1,352 in July 2023 but down 13% from June.
- There were 4,982 closed re-sale transactions, up 5.4% from 4,729 in July 2023 but down 1.3% from June.
- The overall median sales price in June was $467,545, up 0.5% from July 2023 but down 1.6% from June..
- The re-sale median sales price was $450,000, up 1.1% from July 2023 but down 3.2% from June.
- The new home median sales price was $506,240, down 5.1% from July 2023 but up 0.5% from June.
There were 22 working days in July 24 versus 21 in July 23, so the 4.6% rise in closings is more than explained by the 4.8% increase in the number of working days. In a reversal of long-standing trends, new homes grew only 1.9%, while resales grew 5.4%, modestly exceeding the change in working days..
New home market share dropped to 21.7% in July 2024, down from 22.2% a year ago.
Prices were weak for re-sales, down more than 3% from a month earlier. The peak remains $486,000 achieved in May 2022, just before the iBuyers started their liquidation sales.
Overall we see an annual rise in the median sales price of only 0.5%, so well below the rate of inflation. This means the median home is cheaper than a year ago, when adjusted for inflation. The median new home is down more than 5% from a year ago, so cheaper than last year even before adjusting for inflation.
Given that median household incomes have risen substantially over the last year, affordability in Maricopa County has improved, though there is no sign yet of this leading to strengthening demand. It would make sense to assume that potential buyers are waiting for mortgage rates to come down. Recent pronouncements by the Federal Reserve suggest such a change is on the cards in the short-term.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 1 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This table is starting to look a little less negative. We have 5 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, up from only 2 last week.
The average change in CMI over the past month is -4.4%, smaller than the -5.4% we saw last week and continuing a positive trend that started a couple of weeks ago.
Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Maricopa, Cave Creek and Buckeye are the risers while the largest declines are concentrated in the Southeast Valley (Tempe, Gilbert, Chandler and Mesa). After a long stay at the top, Chandler has finally been overtaken by Fountain Hills.
8 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110.. We have 3 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 6 are buyer's markets. 3 cities still remain over 140.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 30 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period March to May 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid April, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
All 20 cities show rising prices for last month.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Cleveland +1.75%
- Detroit +1.71%
- Seattle +1.43%
- New York +1.26%
- Las Vegas +1.20%
- Minneapolis +1.14%
- Chicago +1.13%
- Washington +1.12%
- Atlanta +1.00%
- Charlotte +0.99%
- Los Angeles +0.98%
- Denver +0.87%
- Tampa +0.79%
- Dallas +0.75%
- San Diego +0.72%
- San Francisco +0.69%
- Miami +0.67%
- Boston +0.53%
- Phoenix +0.42%
- Portland +0.33%
Phoenix has overtaken Portland to climb one place to 19th. The national average was +0.86% so Phoenix prices rose less than half the national average.
Many areas enjoyed exceptionally strong rises, especially in the North and on the Atlantic Coast. Apart from Seattle, the Pacific Coast has slowed down.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- New York +9.4%
- San Diego +9.1%
- Las Vegas +8.6%
- Los Angeles +8.4%
- Miami +7.6%
- Chicago +7.5%
- Cleveland +7.5%
- Boston +7.2%
- Charlotte +7.2%
- Seattle +7.1%
- Detroit +6.8%
- Washington +6.1%
- Atlanta +5.7%
- Phoenix +4.4%
- San Francisco +4.2%
- Tampa +3.3%
- Dallas +2.6%
- Minneapolis +2.4%
- Denver +2.1%
- Portland +1.0%
Phoenix stayed at 14th place yet again, and is still stuck in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are again showing positive price movement from one year ago with Denver and Portland once again at the bottom. Las Vegas is looking surprisingly strong.
The national average is +5.9% year over year. Phoenix is below that percentage, and in a similar situation to the last three months.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 29 - With the NAR Commission Settlement imminent, there is widespread uncertainty and confusion across the industry about how it will all play out.
The uncertainty is exemplified by the decision of the CMLS not to offer best practices advice to its members. The Council of Multiple Listing Services (CMLS) represents 225 different MLS providers across the country, and has urged its members to have "thoughtful conversations" and "pick your own adventure". This means we are likely to see different implementations in different geographies. The confusion is also exemplified by the NAR's FAQ web-page on the settlement where the number of FAQs has risen to more than 100, putting it well into TLDR territory.
Recent surveys have shown that commission rates have varied little across the regions of the USA with buyer's agents earning between 2.6% and 2.8% historically while listing agents have earned 2.8% to 3.2%. In recent months these numbers have fallen a little to 2.4% to 2.8% and 2.8% to3.0%. There is a lack of consensus on what these numbers might look like over the next year.
The impact of the settlement is likely to be much more significant to real estate agents than the housing market itself, though some effects are certainly possible. Our feeling is that these would tend to reinforce existing trends rather than change them.
We are at a low level of closing activity with only 70,473 closed listings over the past 12 months across all areas & types. This is down from 74,060 a year ago and well below the long-term average of 85,101. We are still a long way above the extreme low point of 48,491 that we witnessed on June 30, 2008, so there is room to fall. The uncertain legal and procedural situation is not likely to increase volumes and we may instead see the declining closing rate continue for some time before easing mortgage rates are able to stimulate a recovery.
New home sales may benefit from having their agent commissions clearly communicated and this could continue to grow their percentage share of sales. Builder margins may also benefit from an increasing number of transactions where no external agent is involved, saving them from paying any compensation to a buyer's agent or broker and allowing them to compete harder on gross prices.
The DOJ has stated that "real estate commissions in the USA greatly exceed those in any other developed economy" and their Antitrust Division seem determined to lower them. They want buyer's agent commissions set between the buyer and buyer's agent and not determined at all by the seller or the selling agent. It is possible that the NAR settlement does not go far enough for the Antitrust Division to be satisfied that this objective will be achieved.
While it is true that real estate commissions are higher in the USA than elsewhere, the duties performed by both buyer and listing agents are usually more extensive than in most other countries. It seems likely that when the dust settles, buyers will end up paying lower commissions than those paid in the past on their behalf by the seller, but buyers will also be getting a lot less advice and support during the buying process. This is not necessarily to their advantage since a small error in buying can have major financial consequences. These can outweigh any small difference in commission paid.
Clients tend to pay far more for legal services in the USA than in foreign countries too, but driving down the price of legal advice will not necessarily improve or even maintain the quality of that advice.
As in many walks of life, you tend to get what you pay for.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 25 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
At first sight this looks bad. We have only 2 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, half as many as last week. Avondale and Queen Creek have reversed course leaving Scottsdale and Maricopa alone. 15 have declined, so the vast majority have deteriorated for sellers. However most of these only fell by a small percentage. Former high-fliers Tempe, Gilbert and Chandler show the biggest falls.
After a second look, things look a lot better. The average change in CMI over the past month is -5.4%, a smaller fall than the -6.7% we saw last week. The rate of decline has definitely changed direction and this is a positive sign for the market. Things are deteriorating more slowly.
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110, though that looks unlikely to last much longer for Tempe and Gilbert. We have 2 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 6 are buyer's markets. 3 cities still remain over 140.
One of the largest markets by dollar volume (Scottsdale) has improved by 6% over the last month. Given that we are in the middle of the slowest season for luxury homes, this is another encouraging sign for that market.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 22 - Throughout this site we tend to use nominal dollars when expressing sale prices. Most people do the same. Yet this can be a little misleading if we are thinking about how expensive homes are today compared with 24 years ago.
The average $/SF for January 2001 was $99.04 across Greater Phoenix for all dwelling types. In June 2024 the same measure was $299.44. On the face of it, prices have increased by 202% and are now over 3 times what they were at the start of 2001. However this is not a very fair comparison, since the dollar of 2001 would buy you a lot more stuff than it does today. It was worth 79% more than the dollar in June 2024, based on the Consumer Price Index..
The chart below compares the average $/SF over time - in green using the nominal dollars we are all familiar with. The blue line shows the same average $/SF but expressed in 2001 dollars. We used the Consumer Price Index to make the adjustment for each month between 2001 and 2024.

We can see that homes are certainly more expensive (on a price per square foot basis) than in 2001 - but only up by 69% in "real terms", not 202% as suggested by the nominal dollar amounts.
We can also drawn some other interesting conclusions:
- Home prices in real terms were below Jan 2001 levels throughout the period Sep 2008 to Apr 2015. That was 7 years in which you could pick up a bargain.
- Home prices in real terms are still significantly lower today than at the peak of May 2022.
- Home prices in real terms are similar to those at the late stages of the bubble in the first half of 2006.
- Home prices in real terms are similar to those at the end of 2021.
- The 2 big boom periods were quite short in duration - mid 2004 to mid 2005 and mid 2020 to mid 2022.
- The 1 big bust period was also quite short - from early 2007 to early 2009.
The two booms were quite different in nature, since the first was followed by a long period (2006 to 2011) with a huge excess of inventory for sale, which the second was followed by a period in which inventory remained below normal. This is why we have have two booms and only one bust.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 18 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is -6.7%, a smaller fall than the -7.2% we saw last week. The rate of decline has changed direction and this is a mildly positive sign for the market.
We have 4 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, with Scottsdale joining Avondale, Queen Creek and Maricopa. 13 have declined, so the majority have still deteriorated for sellers. The 4 improving cities have only risen by a small percentage, so nothing much to celebrate there.
We have a long list of cities that moved substantially in favor of buyers: Tempe, Gilbert, Glendale, Chandler, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley. The Southeast Valley features strongly in this list.
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110. We have 2 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 6 are buyer's markets. However only 3 remain over 140 and 2 of these are falling swiftly.
Mortgage rates are currently in a slow downward trend, which is likely to improve demand, if only gradually. Supply is much higher than last year, but still well below normal by long-term standards.
We have a balanced and rather insipid market overall, with volumes stuck at very low levels, which is not good for real estate professionals. However the idea that we are poised for some sort of drastic market correction is ludicrous. None of the conditions necessary for significant price falls are in place. Mortgage delinquency is low, sellers are motivated but not desperate and supply is not running far ahead of demand, as it did in 2006.
The increasing flexibility from sellers that a balanced market brings will cause list prices to fall, but is not likely to have much effect on final closing prices. The present weakness in pricing is a seasonal effect which almost always brings us an unfavorable sales mix between June and September. This is because the luxury market is only half-awake during these months, while investors remain very active.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 17 - A pretty reliable indicator of the health of the market is the percentage of list achieved by closed listings. This can be measured every day for the past month, quarter or year and if the number is falling then the market is weakening, or vice versa. If the market turns around to the upside then the monthly percentage will start to exceed the annual percentage. Although it is reliable, it is substantially slower to react to changes in the market than other indicators like the contract ratio or the Cromford® Market Index.
Today we see the average for all areas and types standing at 97.64%. That tells us little on its own, but can be extremely meaningful when compared with numbers from the past.
The long term average is 97.38% (2001-2024). This suggests that the market is slightly stronger than average, but not by very much. Last month was 97.81%, so we are in a short-term falling trend.
One year ago, the monthly percentage was 98.06%, so noticeably stronger than the present value. However the present value is still above the long term average and not a cause for alarm. The market is softening but it is doing it very slowly. There is nothing here to support the idea that a crash is happening or imminent.
The highest we have ever measured is 101.94%. This occurred on April 20, 2022. This was when iBuyers and institutional investors were towards the very end of their massive acquisition spree. Interestingly, we did not get so high during the height of the housing bubble. The top reading for that period was only 99.55%. This is because the crash was not caused as much by over-paying but more by over-borrowing. Massive debts were taken on that had no hope of ever getting repaid and those debts were assigned triple A ratings by debt rating agencies. That was unusual and is unlikely to happen again during our lifetimes.
The lowest percentage recorded is 93.82%, which was on May 2, 2009.
A reading below 97% is a red flag and this occurred on 5 September 5, 2006. Much later than some signals but well before prices started to fall dramatically. In recent times, this falling below 97% occurred on December 1, 2022, but it quickly recovered from below 97% by February 25, 2023, and has stayed above 97% ever since.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 13 - The number of active listings had been rising since the start of the year but since May has reached a plateau, as can be seen in the turquoise line below:

The number is struggling to reach much beyond 18,000, which is about 75% of what we would consider normal. Meanwhile demand is continuing to fall and is almost 25% below what we would consider normal.
The combination of these means weak supply and weak demand are almost exactly in balance and the only detectable trend is demand weakening further.
If there is no change in these trends then we can expect the Cromford® Market Index to fall below 100 for the first time since January 2, 2023.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 11 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is -7.2%, a larger fall than the -6.9% we saw last week. However the rate of decline is slowing. In other words a -0.3% change is better than than the -0.8% we measured last week. If this trend is repeated then we could see the monthly deterioration reduce fairly soon.
As we saw during the previous 2 weeks, we only have 3 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 14 have declined. The 3 improving are the same as last week, but only Avondale has improved by a decent percentage.
We have a long list of cities that moved substantially in favor of buyers: Tempe, Gilbert, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, Goodyear, Cave Creek, Glendale and Chandler.
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110. We have 2 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 6 are buyer's markets. However only 3 remain over 140.
Not much has changed since last week and although the market is close to balance there is currently little sign that it will deteriorate to the point where we have a buyer's market overall.
The benign CPI data released this week has had a relatively small downward effect on mortgage rates, but a supercharged upward effect on the share prices of home builders. For example, KB Home rose more than 10% in hope of improved market conditions if the Federal Reserve starts to lower rates.
Overall supply looks like leveling off, bringing an end to the upward trend that has been in place since the beginning of the year. Without an excess of inventory, any improvement in demand caused by falling interest rates could translate to the CMI changing direction. However this is currently just a possibility and yet to be proven. We will certainly be reporting on it should we find solid evidence. Stay tuned.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 10 - The implementation of Rental Beast is potentially good news for us because we should have more rental listings entering our database. For statistics, a larger sample size usually leads to better quality statistics.
However this assumes that the incoming data is of high quality. At the moment we are suffering from major bugs in the ARMLS rental system that are causing data loss and some incorrect field contents. Huge numbers (more than 25,000) of listings have lost their parcel number, which is a crucial piece of information on which we base a lot of our assumptions about the property. In addition the relationship between city and county has become uncertain. Many Tempe listings are currently being placed in Cochise County, for example. Weird.
I am confident this will all get sorted out in good time, but at the moment you will need to be aware that the number of errors in the source data exceeds our ability to clean them with our daily process. This does not affect the overall statistics in our Tableau charts on rentals, but it means that applying some of the filters may give misleading results.
Please treat rental data with extra caution until we can give the all-clear signal again.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 8 - We have been studying the contract ratios for various price ranges and comparing the readings on July 1 2024 with those for the same date in 2023 and 2022.
Price Range | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
Under $300K | 48.7 | 134.3 | 65.2 |
$300K - $350K | 125.2 | 134.4 | 65.8 |
$350K - $400K | 89.5 | 121.6 | 64.3 |
$400K - $450K | 43.7 | 105.2 | 53.3 |
$450K - $500K | 38.7 | 73.3 | 46.9 |
$500K - $600K | 48.7 | 72.8 | 42.1 |
$600K - $700K | 29 | 60.9 | 40.6 |
$700K - $800K | 37 | 51 | 39.3 |
$800K - $1M | 43.4 | 51.3 | 33.6 |
$1M - $1.5M | 43.2 | 51 | 34.5 |
$1.5M - $2M | 36.6 | 44.6 | 26.3 |
$2M - $3M | 36.1 | 36 | 31.9 |
$3M - $5M | 30.4 | 29.6 | 18.4 |
$5M - $7.5M | 34.6 | 26.3 | 13.4 |
$7.5M - $10M | 16 | 14 | 10.3 |
Over $10M | 10 | 13.5 | 15.8 |
These numbers are for the single-family detached segment.
In July 2022 the rapid rise in interest rates had caused panic to rush through the market and contract ratios had collapsed from much higher June 2022 levels. The low to mid price ranges were worst affected.
By July 2023 the market had recovered to a remarkable degree and the low supply drove contract ratios back to hotter levels, especially at the lowest end of the market.
In July 2024, we are back to a softer market, with supply and demand in balance. Some price ranges are stronger than they were 2 years ago - for example Under $300K and $400K - $500K, but most are weaker than in 2022.
We note that the segment over $10m is unique in that it is hotter than it was last year and the year before. But between $800K and $10M the luxury price ranges are much cooler than in both prior years.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 4 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is -6.9%, a steeper fall than the -6.1% we saw last week . This is exacerbating the downward trend that started 7 weeks ago.
Like last week we only have 3 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 14 have declined. The 3 improving are the same as last week, but only Avondale has improved by a large percentage.
We have a much longer list of cities that moved substantially in favor buyers: Paradise Valley, Goodyear, Fountain Hills, Gilbert, Tempe and Glendale.
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110. We have 2 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 6 are buyer's markets. However only 3 remain over 140.
The situation is very similar to last week, but Buckeye is now only a shade over 60 and is exhibiting increasing signs of weakness.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 3 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's June filings and here is what we found:
- There were 6,633 closed transactions, down 13% from 7,665 in June 2023 and down 15% from May.
- There were 1,584 closed new homes, down 4% from 1,657 in June 2023 but up 1% from May.
- There were 5,049 closed re-sale transactions, down 16% from 6,008 in June 2023 and down 20% from May.
- The overall median sales price in June was $475,000, up 0.9% from June 2023 and unchanged from May.
- The re-sale median sales price was $465,000, up 3.3% from June 2023 and up 1.1% from May.
- The new home median sales price was $503,934, down 2.9% from June 2023 and down 3.2% from May.
Closing counts look very poor when compared with last month, as well as with a year ago. New homes closings were slightly weaker, falling 4% compared to a year ago, but re-sales were down by a massive 16%.
New home market share bounced back to almost 24% in June 2024 up from 20% last month.
Prices were surprisingly weak for new homes, down almost 3% from a year ago. Re-sales managed to show a rise of 3.3% for the year. Overall we see a rise in the median sales price of under 1%, so below the rate of inflation.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jul 1 - The number of single-family detached homes available for sale in active ARMLS listings has increased by 57% in Greater Phoenix since this time last year. This additional supply in the face of chronically depressed demand has given rise to a weaker market which is currently very close to balance. Despite this, some segments are still seller's markets while other strongly favor buyers.
There are some price ranges which have seen larger increases in supply. These are:
- Below $300K - up by 94%
- From $300K and $350K - up by 64%
- From $400K to $450K - up by 76%
- From $500K to $600K - up by 77%
- From $1.5M to $2M - up by 64%
- From $5M to $7.5M - up by 59%
The lowest increases have been in the following price ranges:
- From $700K to $800K - up by 31%
- From $2M to $3M - up by 28%
- From $7.5M to $10M - up by 35%
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jun 29 - There are still plenty of building permits being sought for new single-family homes. There were 2,740 issued in May for Maricopa and Pinal counties, which is is up 22% compared with May 2023 when we counted 2,246.
This brings the year-to-date total to 13,689 for the first 5 months of 2024. While this is less than for all 11 years from 1998 to 2008, it is the third highest total since 2007 and is up 56% from 2023.
Those who are selling re-sale homes will have much more competition if they are in an area which has lots of new construction going on. This is one of the reasons why the CMI is below 80 in locations such as Buckeye. Maricopa and Queen Creek. There are lots of both new and re-sale homes available in those locations and buyers have been showing a strong preference for new over re-sale for the past few years.
In more central locations, there are relatively few vacant land areas for developers to build on. This helps keep a lid on supply in places like Chandler, Tempe, Phoenix and Glendale. All these areas have CMIs over 130 at the moment, so they remain seller's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jun 27 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is -6.1%, a steeper fall than the -5.0% we saw last week . This is increasing the downward trend that started 6 weeks ago. As sellers compete with each other, price reductions are still increasing in both size and frequency.
This week we only have 3 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 14 have declined.
Avondale is the biggest mover in favor of sellers. We have a much longer list of cities that moved substantially in favor buyers: Paradise Valley, Gilbert, Goodyear, Peoria and Fountain Hills.
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110. We have 2 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 6 are buyer's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jun 25 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period February to April 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid March, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
A big turn-around has taken place in the last 2 months. We have all 20 cities showing rising prices for last month. The Pacific coast had another remarkably strong month.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Boston +2.16%
- San Francisco +2.00%
- Seattle +1.98%
- Cleveland +1.84%
- Detroit +1.80%
- Chicago +1.72%
- Minneapolis +1.37%
- Denver +1.35%
- Los Angeles +1.34%
- Atlanta +1.28%
- New York +1.27%
- Las Vegas +1.22%
- San Diego +1.21%
- Charlotte +1.18%
- Dallas +1.17%
- Portland +1.08%
- Washington +0.93%
- Miami +0.84%
- Tampa 0.70%
- Phoenix +0.56%
Phoenix has fallen from 19th to last place since last month. The national average increase month to month was 1.17%, so Phoenix under-performed significantly with less than half the increase shown by that benchmark.
Most areas had exceptionally strong rises, especially in the North and along the West Coast. Florida has faded.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- San Diego +10.3%
- New York +9.4%
- Chicago +8.7%
- Los Angeles +8.6%
- Cleveland +8.5%
- Las Vegas +8.3%
- Miami +8.2%
- Boston +7.9%
- Seattle +7.5%
- Charlotte +7.3%
- Detroit +7.2%
- Denver +6.4%
- Atlanta +5.9%
- Phoenix +4.8%
- San Francisco +4.7%
- Tampa +3.6%
- Dallas +3.4%
- Minneapolis +2.9%
- Denver +2.0%
- Portland +1.7%
Phoenix stayed at 14th place once again, and is still stuck in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are again showing positive price movement from one year ago with Denver and Portland once again at the bottom. Southern California and the North are in the lead.
The national average is +6.3% year over year. Phoenix is below that percentage, and in a similar situation to the last two months.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jun 20 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is -5.0%, a steeper fall than the -3.4% we saw last week . This is increasing the downward trend that started 5 weeks ago. Price reductions are still increasing in both size and frequency.
As last week, we only have 4 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 13 have declined.
Maricopa is the biggest mover in favor of sellers but it is only up 4% over last month. Gilbert, Peoria, Goodyear, Paradise Valley, Mesa, and Glendale are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers, with Gilbert's market deteriorating the fastest..
Despite the continuing deterioration, 11 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110. We have 1 city (Goodyear) that is barely balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jun 14 - The number of listings under contract (8,238) at week 23 is the lowest we have recorded for that time of the year since 2007.

At no point so far in 2024 has the count managed to claw its way above the miserable totals for 2023.
Now 2007 was an awful year with the market stalled by the certain knowledge that house prices were about to collapse. We are not in that situation in 2024, but buyer enthusiasm for re-sale homes is still very low indeed. To put 8,238 into perspective, the total for week 23 of 2011 was well over 21,000.
If the 30-year fixed mortgage rate finally tumbles well below 7% then things are likely to improve. I recommend watching the turquoise line above to see if it can creep above the purple line over the next couple of months.
The interactive version of this chart is here.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jun 13 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is -3.4%, a steeper fall than the -2.1% we saw last week . This is continuing the downward trend that started 4 weeks ago. Price reductions are again increasing in both size and frequency.
In contrast to last week, we only have 4 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 13 have declined.
Cave Creek is the biggest mover in favor of sellers but it is only up 8% over last month. Glendale, Peoria, Mesa, Phoenix and Gilbert are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers, with Gilbert's market deteriorating the fastest..
Despite the continuing deterioration, 11 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets. We have 2 cities (Goodyear and Cave Creek) that are balanced, while the remaining 4 are buyer's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jun 12 - The supply of homes to buy continues to rise, though the rate of increase is very modest at the moment. The supply of homes to rent is on a steeper upward trajectory. Yesterday we had 4.655 active rental listings, which is up 7% from a month ago and 20% higher than the low point reached on March 3. It is also up 14% than on June 11 last year.
We conclude that tenants have a little more negotiation power when signing leases.
It is apartments that have grown the most since last year - they are 34% more numerous among the active listings. Single-family rental units have increased much less - only 9%. Townhouses are in between with 15% more than a year ago,
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jun 10 - The median sales price is very little affected by the luxury market because luxury homes sell in relatively small numbers. However, these high end properties have a significant effect of both the average sales price and the average $/SF, because some of the prices are so large they can single-handedly swing the average much higher. The median tends to ignore all of the extremes at the top and bottom. This is why it is so popular with analysts who are dealing with real estate number that tend to have questionable quality.
If we examine median sales prices for small segments of the market, then we can see that the high-end has been behaving very differently from the low and mid ranges.
To do this more accurately we really want to use all recorded transactions, not just the ones that were closed through the MLS. So we turn to the Cromford® Public chart EM11 and use the various filters to find that:
- the overall median sales price has been in a rising trend since February 2023 but has still not overtaken the peak of $470,000 achieved in both May and June of 2022. It stood at $456,995 as of April 2024.
- if we restrict our study to the Northeast Valley (Scottsdale, PV, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek and Carefree), then the median is strong and hit a new record high of $879,500 in April 2024. The low point was January 2023 at $730,000
- looking at the fringes of the valley represented by Buckeye, Maricopa, and San Tan Valley, then the median sales price is only marginally higher at $410,00 from where it landed at the low point in February 2023. There is a long way to go before it eclipses the previous high of $439,450, set in May 2022.
Although it has the benefit of being complete and accurate, public record data is slower to collect and so the numbers are less timely. This is why we refer to April numbers rather than May.
The numbers above include condos and townhouses as well as single-family homes. If we look only at single-family homes, all the median prices shift higher, but the comparison remains intact.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jun 6 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is -2.1%, down from -0.8% last week and continuing the downward trend that started 3 weeks ago. The market is deteriorating a little faster now for sellers. Price reductions are increasing in both size and frequency.
On a brighter note, we now have 7 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 10 have declined.
Fountain Hills is easily the biggest movers in favor of sellers. Glendale and Gilbert are once again the primary locations moving in favor of buyers.
Despite the continuing deterioration, 11 out of 17 cities are still seller's markets. We have 3 cities (Goodyear, Cave Creek and Surprise) that are balanced, while the remaining 3 are buyer's markets.
Buckeye and Maricopa swapped places at the bottom of the table. Both have a large inventory a for-sale homes which gives buyers an advantage in negotiations.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jun 5 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's April filings and here is what we found:
- There were 7,858 closed transactions, down 5% from 8,255 in May 2023 but up 8% from April.
- There were 1,572 closed new homes, down 12% from 1,788 in May 2023 but up 10% from April.
- There were 6,286 closed re-sale transactions, down 3% from 6,467 in May 2023 but up 8% from April.
- The overall median sales price in May was $475,000, up 2.5% from May 2023 but down 0.3% from April.
- The re-sale median sales price was $460,000, up 2.7% from May 2023 but down 1.1% from April.
- The new home median sales price was $520,634, up 2.7% from May 2023 and up 1.0% from April.
Closing counts look good when compared with last month, but are down compared with a year ago. New homes closings were noticeably weaker, falling 12% compared to a year ago, suggesting demand for new homes may be losing steam after a very good run..
New home market share peaked at almost 28% in December 2023 and has been falling back towards more normal levels. It stood at 20% in May.
Prices were slightly weaker in May than they had been in April, back down to the level of March. We see an annual gain in the median of around 2.5%, which is lower than the overall inflation rate.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jun 4 - As you are probably aware, using the MLS data as-is is not a good idea if you want to generate reliable statistics. A surprisingly large percentage of listings contain errors that could throw off misleading statistics if they remain uncorrected. A few examples include:
- wrong County - most common is agents who think Maricopa City is in Maricopa County instead of Pinal. There is also confusion about the county boundary near Queen Creek and San Tan Valley.
- typo in the price - e.g. repeated digits or omitted digits
- bad dates - closed date may be before contract date or even the listing date. The COE may fall at a weekend, which is not something the title company will allow to happen in real life.
- wrong ZIP code - happens much more than you might think - we use the USPS to confirm the correct ZIP code for each parcel
- wrong dwelling type - doesn't match the actual property
- etc. etc.
We typically spend 2 hours or so each day searching for these kinds of errors and correcting them before we use the data in our systems. Doing this yourself is not recommended, it is soul destroying work. Since we have an objective of providing the best quality statistics we can, we have to do it, and are doing it on behalf of the 40,000+ agents and others that belong to ARMLS.
Most of the error checks have been developed based on our experience over the past 18 years. Just recently we detected a small number of listings with a new kind of error that we have only just started to fix. Some agents who are listing apartments or co-operative units have been entering the sq ft of the entire apartment block or the entire co-op. This means we are calculating the price per sq. ft. with too many sq. ft. These issues are being fixed over the next few days, but it means that a few $/SF numbers and SF numbers will adjust to more accurate values over this time. It does not make a huge difference to the market as a whole, but if your small segment of the market contains a listing with this horrible SF data, then your $/SF numbers could be too low and the SF numbers too high.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jun 1 - The re-sale market is cooling as supply continues to climb while demand remains subdued. One good way to measure this is through the contract ratio, which compares the number of active listings (without a contract) to the number of listings under contract.
For all areas & types, the contract ratio has dropped 15% from 54.5 to 46.1 over the last month. This compares poorly with 77.0 on June 1 last year. The current 46.1 reading represents a balanced market with buyers finding plenty of supply to choose from and sellers experiencing more competition from each other than they have for most of the last decade. You can use the contract ratio for small segments of the market to check whether the above comments apply to the segments in which you are interested.
Pricing has been strong for the first 5 months of the year but is unlikely to stay that way as we enter the hottest part of the year. We are already seeing evidence that the average $/SF pricing is having a rest after the unexpectedly strong peak that was achieved on May 8.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
May 30 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is -0.8%, down from +0.1% last week and continuing the downward trend that started 2 weeks ago. The market is deteriorating for sellers as supply continues to creep higher and demand remains much weaker than normal. We expect more impatient sellers to increase the size and frequency of price reductions.
We have only 5 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 12 have declined. This is the same as last week.
Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills and Goodyear are by far the biggest movers in favor of sellers. Glendale and Gilbert are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers.
Fountain Hills looks determined to replace Chandler at the top of the table, though it still has some way to go.
Despite the deterioration, 11 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 2 cities (Goodyear and Surprise) that are balanced, while the remaining 4 are buyer's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
May 28 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period January to March 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid February, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
A big turn-around has taken place in the last 2 months. We have all 20 cities showing rising prices for last month. The Pacific coast had another remarkably strong month.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Seattle +2.70%
- San Francisco +2.59%
- Cleveland +2.40%
- San Diego +2.23%
- Boston +1.88%
- Los Angeles +1.70%
- Chicago +1.66%
- New York +1.50%
- Portland +1.47%
- Minneapolis +1.34%
- Denver +1.33%
- Washington +1.27%
- Dallas +1.19%
- Atlanta +1.15%
- Detroit +1.14%
- Miami +0.96%
- Charlotte +0.96%
- Las Vegas +0.92%
- Phoenix +0.53%
- Tampa +0.50%
Phoenix has fallen from 14th to 19th place since last month. The national average increase month to month was 1.29%, so Phoenix under-performed significantly against that benchmark.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- San Diego +11.1%
- New York +9.2%
- Cleveland +8.8%
- Los Angeles +8.8%
- Boston +8.7%
- Chicago +8.7%
- Miami +8.2%
- Seattle +7.8%
- Detroit +7.7%
- Las Vegas +7.7%
- Charlotte +7.5%
- Washington +7.0%
- Atlanta +6.1%
- Phoenix +4.9%
- San Francisco +4.9%
- Tampa +3.8%
- Dallas +3.6%
- Minneapolis +3.3%
- Portland +2.2%
- Denver +2.1%
Phoenix stayed at 14th place, and is therefore still in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are again showing positive price movement from one year ago with Denver and Portland at the bottom. Southern California and the North are in the lead.
The national average is +6.5% year over year. Phoenix is below that percentage, and in a similar situation to last month.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
May 27 - The typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been varying between 7% and 7.25% since May 6, which is better for buyers than the 7.25% to 7.5% range that we saw between April 11 and May 6.
Despite the better rates, demand has stayed weak and even weakened a little further. The number of listings under contract across all types and areas within the ARMLS database is 8,779. This is down 7% from the 9,441 we saw on April 27. It is also down almost 10% from this time last year.
As we approach the hottest months of the year, when demand tends to fall anyway, this weakness is not encouraging. Supply continues to rise, although slowly and the current trends are suggesting continued deterioration for sellers. It would not be a surprise if demand were to fall enough to match the supply of active listings over the next several weeks.
May 23 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
May 23 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is +0.1%, down from +0.8 last week and continuing the downward trend that started last week.
We have only 5 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 12 have declined. This is also less positive than last week.
Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills and Goodyear are the biggest movers in favor of sellers. Tempe, Glendale, Gilbert and Maricopa are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers.
Now that Chandler is losing steam, Fountain Hills has a chance to replace it at the top of the table.
11 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 2 cities (Goodyear and Surprise) that are balanced, while 4 are buyer's markets.
May 20 - Mike Orr is on vacation in Norway so observations are few and far between - normal service will be resumed on May 27.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
May 16 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is +0.8%, down from +1.8 last week and reversing the trend that started six weeks ago.
We have only 6 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 11 have declined. This is significantly less positive than last week.
Paradise Valley, Peoria, Fountain Hills and Goodyear are the biggest moves in favor of sellers. Tempe, Queen Creek and Maricopa are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers. Buckeye has been improving for sellers and is no longer at the bottom of the table having been replaced by Maricopa is looking very likely to take its place. Chandler is still far out in front at the top, but Fountain Hills is now the main challenger.
11 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 2 cities (Goodyear and Surprise) that are balanced, while 4 are buyer's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
May 14 - The Cromford® Market Index for all areas and types has declined a little further over the last week and dropped below the 110 mark, meaning we officially classify the market as balanced.
The decline has been very slow so there is no likelihood of anyone feeling the difference from one week to the next. However supply keeps creeping higher and demand remains very weak.
There is also a big difference between areas like Chandler and Gilbert which remain under firm control by sellers and areas like Maricopa and Buckeye where buyers have a strong advantage due to the plentiful supply, which includes a large number of newly built homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
May 9 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Once again we are seeing small signs of improvement in the market for sellers in certain sub-markets.
The average change in CMI over the past month is +1.8%, up from +1.7 last week and continuing a mild trend that started five weeks ago.
We have 10 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 7 have declined. This is less positive than last week.
Paradise Valley, Peoria, Fountain Hills and Goodyear are the biggest moves in favor of sellers, followed by Avondale. Tempe, Queen Creek, Maricopa and Cave Creek are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers. Buckeye remains at the bottom of the table but Maricopa is looking very likely to take its place. Chandler is still far out in front at the top.
11 out of 17 cities are seller's markets now that Paradise Valley has joined the group. We have 2 cities (Goodyear and Surprise) that are balanced, while 4 are buyer's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
May 5 - Over the last 4 days the monthly average price per square foot for closed listings for all areas and types in the ARMLS database has exceeded $308.
This means it has made a new all-time record high - $308.01.
While they continue to predict a massive imminent price drop, as they have done continuously since 2018, the usual YouTube housing pundits must be feeling less than thrilled to be proven so completely wrong year after year. However they remain undaunted. Their predictions have little to no substance behind them and I notice a lack of confidence creeping into their voices. Bad news attracts clicks is something they do understand.
Again and again, they make the mistake of thinking a weakening of demand will force prices down. The market sees low volumes when demand is weak, but to get prices to come down you need excess supply and desperate sellers.
There was a 7 month period from June to December 2022 when the iBuyers were those desperate sellers. They had spent the previous year loading up on homes at excessive prices in an apparent attempt to grab market share in a booming market. The wheels came off that particular bus when interest rates were raised sharply. Finding themselves with too much unsold inventory, they got rid of it in the second half of 2022 by pricing their homes below market.
Obviously buying above market and selling below market is not great for their profits and this was reflected in their quarterly and annual results. What the rest of us experienced was excess supply and desperate sellers, even though the number of desperate sellers was low (2). Prices did indeed come down sharply during the second half of 2022 but they stabilized in 2023 and have been trending gently higher now that the excess inventory is gone.
I expect the usual seasonal decline in average $/SF during the 3Q, but for now, the market deserves some respect for its resilience and sellers can celebrate the new all-time high.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
May 4 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's April filings and here is what we found:
- There were 7,248 closed transactions, up 6% from 6,840 in April 2023 and up 5% from March.
- There were 1,430 closed new homes, up less than 1% from 1,423 in April 2023 and down 8% from March.
- There were 5,818 closed re-sale transactions, up 7% from 5,517 in April 2023 and up 9% from March.
- The overall median sales price in April was $476,545, up 4.7% from April 2023 and up 0.3% from March.
- The re-sale median sales price was $465,000, up 6.9% from April 2023 and up 1.3% from March.
- The new home median sales price was $515,279, up 0.4% from April 2023 and also up 0.4% from March.
Closing counts look quite a bit stronger in April 2024 for re-sales, but we must bear in mind that April 2024 contained 10% more working days than April 2023.
New homes did not perform quite so well in April as they have been doing over the last year, and their market share dropped to 19.7%, their lowest percentage since July 2022.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
May 2 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Once again we are seeing small signs of improvement in the market for sellers in certain sub-markets.
The average change in CMI over the past month is +1.7%, up from +1.4% last week and continuing a trend that started four weeks ago.
We have 11 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 6 have declined. This is also better than last week.
Paradise Valley, Peoria and Goodyear are the biggest moves in favor of sellers, followed by Avondale and Chandler. Queen Creek, Maricopa and Cave Creek are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers. Buckeye remains at the bottom of the table but Maricopa is threatening to take its place. Chandler is still far out in front at the top. Queen Creek is now well below 80 while Maricopa has joined Buckeye below the 70 level. Buyers have strong negotiating power at these three locations.
11 out of 17 cities are seller's markets now that Paradise Valley has joined the group. We have 1 city (Surprise) that is balanced, while 5 are buyer's markets, although Goodyear looks set to leave that group very shortly.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 30 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period December 2023 to February 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid January, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
A big turn-around has taken place since last month. We have 17 of the 20 cities showing rising prices for last month, with a higher index for Phoenix for the first time in 4 months. Only 3 cities declined over the last month with former high-fliers Miami and Tampa the most affected. The Pacific coast had a remarkably strong month.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Seattle +2.27%
- San Diego +1.69%
- San Francisco +1.66%
- Portland +1.17%
- Washington +1.12%
- Los Angeles +1.06%
- Chicago +1.05%
- Boston +0.99%
- Denver +0.86%
- New York +0.76%
- Minneapolis +0.74%
- Las Vegas +0.64%
- Dallas +0.58%
- Phoenix +0.45%
- Detroit +0.45%
- Atlanta +0.43%
- Charlotte +0.20%
- Cleveland -0.01%
- Miami +0.09%
- Tampa -0.32%
Phoenix has risen from 16th to 14th place since last month. The national average increase month to month was 0.59%, so Phoenix under-performed against that benchmark.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- San Diego +11.4%
- Chicago +9.0%
- Detroit +8.9%
- Los Angeles +8.7%
- New York +8.7%
- Charlotte +8.2%
- Boston +8.0%
- Miami +8.0%
- Las Vegas +7.3%
- Washington +7.1%
- Seattle +7.1%
- Cleveland +7.0%
- Atlanta +6.4%
- San Francisco +5.2%
- Phoenix +4.9%
- Tampa +4.3%
- Minneapolis +3.9%
- Dallas +3.5%
- Denver +2.8%
- Portland +2.2%
Phoenix slipped from 14th to15th place, and is still in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are now showing positive price movement from one year ago with Portland once again at the bottom. Southern California and the North are in the lead.
The national average is +6.4% year over year. Phoenix is below that percentage, and more so than last month.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 28 - We are seeing almost 9,000 price cuts over the last 4 weeks, a level we have not seen since January last year.
Excluding the period between June and December 2022, when iBuyers were chopping prices like crazy across all their excessive inventory, we are at one of the highest levels for price cuts since 2020. Almost 56% of the active listings have seen a price reduction in the last 4 weeks.
Although their listings are far less numerous, homes over $3 million are also seeing far more price cuts than usual, as seen in the chart below:
They tend to stay on market for a much longer time and their price reductions are usually spread out over many months.184 homes over $3 million saw a price cut over the last 4 weeks, Since there are 668 in total this is 27.5% of the high-end listings getting reduced. It seems to be most prevalent in the range $3 million to $5 million, of which 32.4% have seen a price cut in the last 4 weeks. A smaller percentage of homes over $5 million have been reduced - 22%.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 25 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
We are starting to see few signs of improvement in the market for sellers, at least in certain sub-markets.
The average change in CMI over the past month is +1.4%, up from +1.1% last week and continuing a trend that started three weeks ago.
We have 10 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 7 have declined. This is also better than last week.
Goodyear and Paradise Valley are the biggest moves in favor of sellers, followed by Chandler. Queen Creek, Cave Creek and Maricopa are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers. Buckeye remains adrift at the bottom of the table while Chandler is still way out in front at the top. Queen Creek is now well below 80 while Maricopa has joined Buckeye below the 70 level. Buyers have strong negotiating power at these three locations.
10 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 2 cities that are balanced, while 5 are buyer's markets. Paradise Valley looks set to become a seller's market by next week.
It is much easier to create new supply in the outlying areas, but as we move towards the center of the valley, supply gets tighter and market starts to increasingly favor sellers.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 24 - Single-family building permits are still running far ahead of last year and the total of 8,334 for the first quarter of 2024 across Maricopa and Pinal was the highest quarterly number since Q1 2022.
The top 10 locations for new permits during the first quarter of 2024 were:
- Phoenix (1,250)
- Surprise (1,005)
- Unincorporated Pinal County (993)
- Unincorporated Maricopa County (669)
- Buckeye (583)
- Peoria (572)
- Queen Creek (540)
- Goodyear (540)
- Maricopa (333)
- Mesa (291)
Peoria showed the largest growth over last year, when there were only 54.
One of the reasons Chandler scores so high in the CMI ranking table below is that there are so few new homes being created. Just 29 permits were issued during the first quarter, but at least that is up from 11 during Q1 last year. Gilbert only gave us 72, down from 123 in 2023 and Tempe saw only 25.
New supply is mainly being created outside these "older" cities on the fringes of the built-up area.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 21 - The average price per square foot for all areas & types has breached the $300 level again.
The record stands at $306.39, set on June 10, 2022. This was followed by a 14% correction down to a low of $263.83 on January 17, 2023, which was partly fueled by an excessive inventory sell-off from the iBuyers. Since January 2023, prices have been generally moving higher. We were at $279.86 one year ago and prices have risen 7.3% over the last 12 months.
They would only have to rise by 2% to establish a new all-time high
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 18 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is +1.1%, up from +0.3% last week.
We have 9 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 8 have declined. This is worse than last week. Mixed signals again.
Tempe, Goodyear and Paradise Valley are the biggest moves in favor of sellers, followed by Scottsdale. Fountain Hills, Queen Creek, Cave Creek are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers. Buckeye remains adrift at the bottom of the table while Chandler is still way out in front at the top. Gilbert is attempting to challenge Chandler while Queen Creek has joined Maricopa below the 80 level.
10 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 2 cities that are balanced, while 5 are buyer's markets. This mix is weaker than last week thanks to Cave Creek moving from balanced to a buyer's market.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 17 - This observation is from Callum Williams at the Economist. In many ways Generation Z - people born between 1997 and 2012 - have had a tough time. The covid-19 pandemic disrupted their schooling and stopped them from seeing friends. The past couple of years have been marked by geopolitical ructions, from war in Ukraine to the Israel-Hamas conflict. And some researchers believe that smart-phones are damaging their mental wellbeing.
So far, so bad. But as we report this week, there is another side to the story. Gen Z is rich. Millennials - those born between 1980 and 1996 - had to deal with sky-high rates of youth unemployment during the early 2010s. Gen Z-ers, by contrast, look for work during a global labor shortage. Youth unemployment is at its lowest in decades. Gen-Z job-hunters are able to demand much higher wages.
Evidence from America finds that in 2022 Gen Z-ers’ pay packets were rising at an astonishing rate of 13% year on year. This is unprecedented, both in absolute terms and relative to the pay rises of people of other ages. Robust evidence finds that Gen Z-ers are far better off than Millennials were at the same age. We find similar evidence elsewhere in the rich world.
The obvious counterargument relates to housing and education. Aren’t these pricier than ever? On education, possibly not. Housing is expensive, but Gen Z-ers’ pay packets are unusually large, meaning they can cope with the additional costs. Our analysis for America finds that under-25s are spending slightly less on education and housing, as a share of their income, than the long-run average. Although housing has become less affordable since the 1980s, home-ownership rates for Gen Z are higher than for previous generations at the same age.
Gen Z-ers’ economic advantages may not last for ever. If a recession hits while the generation is still young, they will be the first to suffer. Artificial intelligence is potentially a big threat to livelihoods. But for now, things are looking good.
I find the Economist a good source for fresh ideas and this particular piece suggests demand for housing from Gen-Z may be stronger than we expect over the next several years. We should not assume their tastes to be the same as previous generations. My son Luke has recently joined the Cromford® team full-time and is from Gen-Z, having been born in California in 2001 and raised in Arizona from 2002 to 2017. He has dual citizenship (USA and UK).
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 14 - I have not had a question or comment about the iBuyers in over a year now, but they have not gone away. Well Zillow has (as an iBuyer), but that is old news and they were only around for a very brief time.
Opendoor has been selling about 40 homes a month in Greater Phoenix. We saw a consistent volume at this level over the 5 months from September to January. But in February that popped up to 63. However this is a seasonal effect and still far below what they used to achieve, with sales over 100 a month for most of 2017. Their current monthly volume is 90% below than their peak sales in March 2022.
So Opendoor is still around but operating at a tiny fraction of its volumes between 2016 and 2022. With a 0.9% market share after 10 years of operation, I would anticipate that they see this as a huge disappointment relative to their original strategic objectives.
What of OfferPad?
Their monthly sales volume is hovering around 15 sales per month. This is less than half their 2017 volume and also more than 90% down from their peak in March 2022. They have been up and running in Phoenix since 2015 so after 9 years they have achieved a market penetration of 0.2%. Barely more than a rounding error, to be honest. You can investigate these monthly volumes in the Cromford® Public section of this site.
In their heyday of Q1 2022, when they were both buying homes for more than they were worth, the iBuyer market share reached as high as 5.7%. So their present 1.1% combined market share represents a crash back to earth for their transaction volumes as well as their stock prices.
In contrast, money invested in any of the public homebuilders, such as D R Horton, Pulte, Lennar, Meritage, MDC, Toll Brothers, etc. has performed extremely well, despite their more traditional business model. The model might be old, but it has the great but unfashionable feature of generating healthy profits, even after interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. You may call me old fashioned, but I still like that feature.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 12 - We don't go in for advertising at the Cromford Report, relying instead on word of mouth among agents and investors. This keeps out prices down because our marketing budget is zero.
There has been a lot of chit-chat about artificial intelligence over the past year, to put it mildly. So I asked ChatGPT to write a review about the Cromford Report. Here is what it said:
The Cromford Report is an invaluable tool for anyone involved or interested in the real estate market, particularly in the Arizona area. As a comprehensive analysis of the local housing market, it offers insights and data that are essential for making informed decisions, whether you're a buyer, seller, investor, or industry professional.
One of the standout features of the Cromford Report is its depth of analysis. It doesn't just provide surface-level information; instead, it delves into the nuances of the market, examining trends, patterns, and factors influencing supply, demand, and pricing. This level of detail allows users to gain a thorough understanding of what's driving the market at any given time.
Furthermore, the Cromford Report's commitment to accuracy and reliability is commendable. Its data is meticulously gathered and analyzed, ensuring that users can trust the information they're receiving. This reliability is crucial in an industry where even small fluctuations can have significant implications.
Another strength of the Cromford Report is its accessibility. While the real estate market can be complex and intimidating for those without specialized knowledge, the report presents information in a clear and understandable manner. Whether you're a seasoned real estate professional or a newcomer to the industry, you'll find the Cromford Report to be user-friendly and informative.
Overall, the Cromford Report is an indispensable resource for anyone with an interest in the Arizona real estate market. Its thorough analysis, commitment to accuracy, and accessibility make it a valuable tool for making informed decisions in a dynamic and ever-changing industry.
Thanks ChatGPT. You made me blush.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 11 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is +0.3%, up from zero last week. The picture is remarkably mixed with some locations improving sharply for sellers over the last months and other deteriorating badly,
We have 10 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 7 have declined. This is the same as last week.
Tempe, Goodyear and Paradise Valley are the biggest moves in favor of sellers, followed by Avondale and Scottsdale. Fountain Hills, Queen Creek, Cave Creek and Buckeye are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers, with Peoria just behind. Buckeye remains adrift at the bottom of the table while Chandler is way out in front at the top.
10 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 3 cities that are balanced, while 4 are buyer's markets. This mix is unchanged from last week.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 10 - From the Cromford® Public section we extracted this list of the top cities by Dollar Volume over the 12 month period March 2023 - Feb 2024.

It is noticeable how strong Scottsdale and Paradise Valley were over this period. Scottsdale produced almost as much home sales revenue as Phoenix, while Paradise Valley comfortably exceeded Queen Creek and is catching up on Glendale. The unit volumes are substantially lower, of course, in Scottsdale and PV, with the difference being the much higher pricing.
However the really interesting contrast is with 12 months earlier:

During March 2022 - Feb 2023, Scottsdale was substantially behind Phoenix and Paradise Valley ranked lower than Queen Creek and far behind Glendale.
Dollar volume in Scottsdale declined between the two periods, but only by less than 3%. Dollar volume in Phoenix declined by a massive 20%, and other cities saw similar drops.
Despite the overall market declining, dollar volume in Paradise Valley increased by 18%. Not only did the super-luxury market remain very active in 2023, pricing increased dramatically, far more than in the rest of the market.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 8 - Fifteen years ago, 90% of the housing market talk was about foreclosures. These days, we go from one month to the next without thinking about foreclosures at all. How times have changed!
There are always foreclosures going on and for the homeowner and borrower involved it can be a desperate and difficult situation. It is not too great for the lender either.
But the number of foreclosures taking place this year is so low compared with 15 years ago that foreclosure have almost no impact on the general housing market. It does not look like they will do in the medium term either.
Looking at the foreclosure pending chart you can see that we currently have slightly under 1,000 in process across the whole of Maricopa County. This is 17% below last year at the same time and 98% below the count 15 years ago.
These days foreclosure notices usually result in the homeowner selling privately well before the trustee sale takes place. We currently have about 20 homes auction by the trustee per month - about one per day. Back in 2009 it was not unusual to see 250 homes auctioned in a single day.
Over the past 5 years there have been several times when self-appointed "pundits" popped up and predicted massive rises in foreclosures. All these "pundits" have been proven completely wrong.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 6 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's March filings and here is what we found:
- There were 6,891 closed transactions, down 13% from 7,880 in March 2023 and but up 16% from February.
- There were 1,559 closed new homes, down 8% from 1,699 in March 2023 but up 16% from February.
- There were 5,332 closed re-sale transactions, down 14% from 6,181 in March 2023 but up 16% from February.
- The overall median sales price in March was $475,000, up 6.3% from March 2023 and up 1.7% from February.
- The re-sale median sales price was $459,000, up 7.0% from March 2023 and up 2.0% from February.
- The new home median sales price was $513,285, up 1.1% from March 2023 but down 0.6% from February.
Closing counts were very weak in March for re-sales, and not impressive for new homes. Pricing continued to advanced for re-sales but weakened a little for new homes, up only 1.1% from a year ago.
New homes took 22.6% market share. Three years ago new homes were less than 15% of the total units sold.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr4 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is zero, down from +0.4% last week.
We have 10 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 7 have declined. This is an improvement over last week. an improvement for sellers instead of a deterioration.
Tempe and Avondale are the primary moves in favor of sellers, aided by Maricopa and Scottsdale. Peoria, Queen Creek, Cave Creek and Buckeye are moving in favor of buyers, with Fountain Hills just behind. Buckeye remains by far the weakest of the large cities with an excess of available inventory. Chandler is way out in front at the top of the table with a shortage of available inventory. Paradise Valley managed a slight rise from last month.
10 out of 17 cities are still seller's markets, though this will shortly drop to 9 as Peoria declines. We have 3 cities that are balanced and 4 are buyer's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Apr 1 - Transaction volumes have been low for many months in the re-sale segment of the housing market. However the same cannot be said of the new home segment.
During the first 2 months of 2024, new home builders closed on a total of 3,351 homes across Maricopa and Pinal counties.

This is the highest total since 2006 and is up almost 16% from last year. New homes are taking a lot of the demand away from re-sales. This is particularly true of Pinal County, where closings were up almost 32% from last year.
New home closings are up just over 10% in Maricopa County. Re-sale closings are down 0.4% compared to the first 2 months of 2023.
New homes are very competitive on price. It might surprise you to learn that the average price per square foot for new homes across Maricopa and Pinal counties was $269.75 in February 2024, which is far below the resale average of $298.55. New homes are normally more expensive than re-sales, but this is only true if you are looking at homes in the same location. In Greater Phoenix, new homes tend to be located further away from the center of the valley in areas that are cheaper per sq. ft. because the land is cheaper out there.
As with most things in real estate the answer is location, location, location. The is the one thing you cannot change about real property. With working from home become more common, you can save yourself a lot of dollars if you are willing to live further out.
All these numbers come from the Cromford® Public section of the site, an optional subscription upgrade which relies on public records instead of ARMLS data. As such, Cromford® Public has the disadvantage of being a lot less timely, but it benefits from being far more complete and usually a little more accurate. After all, completing an Affidavit of Value is subject to the laws of perjury, whereas the content of MLS listings is patrolled by the Data Integrity team within the MLS. We have to make dozens of error corrections each day to MLS data before using it in our charts and tables.
The majority of new home sales do not touch the MLS, so we have to rely on public record data when analyzing the new home market.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Mar 28 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The average change in CMI over the past month is +0.4%, up from +0.1% last week.
We have 8 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 9 have declined. This is also slight improvement over last week. The change is minimal but it is the first time since January 18 that we have seen an improvement for sellers instead of a deterioration.
Tempe and Avondale are primarily responsible for the positive average, aided by Maricopa. Scottsdale is starting to show a little momentum at +4%. Peoria and Buckeye are leading the downward movement, with Cave Creek also weakening. Buckeye remains by far the weakest market now that Maricopa is improving. Chandler is so far ahead at the top of the table that it has no serious rival at the moment, with the next 3 cities all in decline.
10 out of 17 cities are still seller's markets. We have 3 cities that are balanced and 4 are buyer's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Mar 26 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period November 2023 to January 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid December, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
We have 3 of the 20 cities showing rising prices for last month, with a lower index for Phoenix for the third time in 10 months. 17 cities declined over the last month with Cleveland the most affected. San Diego stands out with a significant rise unlike all other US cities studied by Case-Shiller.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- San Diego +1.8%
- Washington +0.5%
- Los Angeles +0.1%
- Dallas -0.0%
- Miami -0.1%
- Atlanta -0.1%
- San Francisco -0.1%
- Charlotte -0.1%
- Las Vegas -0.1%
- Tampa -0.2%
- Portland -0.2%
- Dallas -0.2%
- New York -0.3%
- Denver -0.5%
- Chicago -0.5%
- Phoenix -0.5%
- Boston -0.5%
- Minneapolis -0.6%
- Detroit -0.7%
- Cleveland -0.9%
Phoenix has dropped from 12th to 16th place since last month. The national average increase month to month was -0.1%, so Phoenix fell well below that standard.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- San Diego +11.2%
- Los Angeles +8.6%
- Detroit +8.2%
- Charlotte +8.1%
- Chicago +8.0%
- New York +7.6%
- Miami +7.5%
- Boston +7.0%
- Cleveland +5.9%
- Atlanta +6.4%
- Washington +6.3%
- Las Vegas +5.6%
- Tampa +4.6%
- Phoenix +4.6%
- San Francisco +4.5%
- Seattle +4.4%
- Minneapolis +3.1%
- Dallas +2.9%
- Denver +2.7%
- Portland +0.9%
Phoenix remained in14th place once again, and is still in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are now showing positive price movement from one year ago with Portland once again doing relatively poorly. Southern California is now showing the highest annual appreciation, closely followed by Detroit, Charlotte and Chicago.
The national average is +6.0% year over year. Phoenix is therefore below that percentage once more, in contrast to last month.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Mar 25 - Supply has been gently increasing since the start of 2024 and has reached comfortably north of 17,000. This is still well below the long-term average but is the highest total we has seen in late March since 2019.
Re-sales have been suffering from strong competition from new homes and this source of supply is looking stronger than last year. In February there were 2,810 single-family home permits across Maricopa and Pinal counties which is the highest number since March 2022 and up 107% compared to February last year.
Multi-family permits for February were lower at 1,147 units, down 51% from a year ago. However multi-family permits are a very lumpy number which fluctuates wildly from month to month. It makes more sense to look at an annual running total. This stands at over 20,000 units, which is twice the level we regarded as normal until 2022.
Sellers should expect to be facing increased competition from the new home builders over the coming 12 months.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Mar 21 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The table deteriorated again for sellers since last week, but once again only slightly. The average change in CMI over the past month is +0.1%, down from +0.4%. There is a widening gap between the top and the bottom of the table.
We have 7 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 10 have declined. Mesa and Avondale are primarily responsible for the positive average, aided by Maricopa and Tempe. There are no other cities with percentage increases over 3%. Goodyear and Buckeye are once again leading the downward movement, but they have been joined by Gilbert. Buckeye is now well adrift at the bottom. Chandler has lost momentum over the last couple of weeks, but is so far ahead at the top of the table that it has no serious rival at the moment.
10 out of 17 cities are still seller's markets. We have 3 cities that are balanced and 4 are buyer's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Mar 19 - Currently the listing success rate is hovering around 80%. This is higher than it has been since last September and is a reasonably good reading. The long-term average is around 70% these days, but it used to be closer to 65%.

It is a little higher than this time last year and means that 4 out of 5 listings end with a successful close rather than getting cancelled or expiring.
If you are looking for good news, this is in that category.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Mar 18 - I have received a question about what real estate transactions are like in England, where there are very few buyers who are represented by agents. This is prompted by the recent legal agreement with NAR. This has yet to come into effect, but is scheduled for the middle of 2024 and will introduce some major changes into the way compensation is negotiated for buyer's agents. It is possible that more buyers will not be represented at all.
I think most Arizona agents would be surprised by how different the processes are in the UK, so for those who are interested, here are the first 38 differences that I identified:
- Commissions are typically 1% to 1.5% payable by the seller to the “estate agent” who advertises the property. The better the agent the higher the commission, generally speaking.
- The buyer is usually unrepresented, but there are a few specialist buying agents, used only by very rich people to find suitable properties. These buying agents are paid by the buyer. Buyer's agents claim that their negotiation skills get a lower price for the buyer and this more than pays for their fee.
- Caveat emptor applies – the seller is under no obligation to reveal defects in the property. However, most are reasonably honest. Never rely on it about anything important.
- There are few lawsuits if something goes wrong. The buyer is expected to do all necessary due diligence before closing and anything discovered afterwards is tough luck.
- There are no title companies or title insurance.
- There is no MLS. Properties are advertised on a variety of web sites, dominated by Rightmove and Zoopla, which cover the whole country.
- There is no Zillow or anything equivalent.
- The laws are different in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and I am familiar with the England and Wales system only.
- Parties can back out of the agreed sale until exchange of contracts, typically a week before closing. After exchange of contracts the buyer will lose their deposit if they back out. Deposits are usually 10%.
- Gazumping and gazundering are common in times of fast price changes. These involve the buyer or seller changing the agreed price before contract exchange. Google the terms if they are unfamiliar (which is likely).
- Both buyer and seller use a solicitor to represent them in preparing contracts. Each party has their own solicitor, they cannot share one. A solicitor is a kind of lawyer, but they aren’t qualified to represent you in courts like an attorney would be. Sometimes the lender will require a third solicitor to represent them. These can add a lot to closing costs.
- The solicitor has a fiduciary duty to their client. Agents do not, as they are just marketing the property for the seller and often exaggerate or tell outright lies. Estate agents are not held in high esteem in the UK, but solicitors are usually respected.
- Estate agents have no required education and are not licensed. Anyone can be an estate agent just by choosing to call themselves one. However wise sellers will carefully choose an agent based on reputation and local knowledge.
- If an agent works for a large agency, they will normal receive a salary plus commission. Very few people work for commission only.
- No formal contract is used in making an offer. The offer may be just a phone call followed by an email confirmation, voice-mail or text message.
- Property titles are recorded in a national database – the Land Registry. It can take months for a purchase to be recorded. Loans are recorded against the property along with other restrictions or covenants that may place a heavy burden on the new owner.
- Sellers can sell a home without an agent (like a FSBO), but this is rare unless they are using a “We Buy Any Home” company as a buyer.
- Closing takes 3 to 5 months typically. Many things can and do go wrong and sales often fall through because something odd is discovered after the sale is agreed.
- The listing agent is paid out of the proceeds of the sale, as is the solicitor. Each party gets their own closing statement, not a common one for both.
- After agreeing a price, the buyer must conduct many searches to check the condition and legal status of the property. These searches are arranged by the buyer’s solicitor but require the cooperation of the seller’s solicitor. They can take a very long time, sometimes months.
- It is common for the seller to show the property, rather than relying on the selling agent attending.
- It is usual to have a long chain of transactions that all have to close at the same time. One end of the chain is a buyer who does not need to sell and at the other end is a seller who does not need to buy. All the others have to buy and sell at the same time. This is a mess, but perfectly normal. You just have to keep calm and carry on.
- Planning permission is a crucial ingredient. An acre with no planning permission may be worth $10,000. With planning permission it could be worth $500,000. Planning permission comes from the local government authority.
- There are no fixed rate mortgages for more than 5 years. Most mortgages are variable rate, but some are called fixed rate which means the rate is held steady for a short period up to 5 years.
- Lenders will usually require a formal valuation, and these are often quite expensive and usually paid for up front. The borrower pays for this.
- There are no government guarantees on loans, and nothing like FHA, VA, FANNIE MAE or FREDDIE MAC.
- Down payments are usually larger, typically at least 10% and often 25%.
- Fishing rights, hunting rights, mining rights etc are often separated from the property in question.
- There are very few HOAs but most properties have restrictions attached to their title deeds. The buyer will have to find out what they are and they may be so onerous that they back out.
- There are almost no condominiums (called common-hold in UK). Apartments are almost always leasehold rather than freehold (fee simple) and a third party owns the land and the freehold on the building. Owners must pay the freeholder ground rent, though this is often a trivial amount or even zero in a few cases. The leasehold will have a termination date which may be not far into the future or many centuries away. Important to check.
- A tax is payable by the buyer based on the contract price. This must be paid in full immediately after completion. It is called Stamp Duty Land Tax and can amount to a very large sum, especially on luxury properties. It is zero or small on most entry-level properties. The tax is higher for investors and second-home purchasers. It is also higher for buyers from abroad.
- School catchment areas are a very critical factor for buyers with children. Schools are sometimes very inflexible about who they will accept, based on their home address.
- Public transport is widely used, so proximity to a train station or bus service is a key issue in valuation.
- Very few properties have air conditioning.
- Many properties have no parking of any kind, as they were built before car ownership was widespread.
- The median home is about 60% of the size of the median home in Arizona. (1200 sq. ft. versus 2000 sq. ft.) but it will probably be built with more substantial materials (stone, brick, slate) and expected to last a lot longer.
- Some homes are several centuries old. Mine is at least 200 years old and no-one remembers when it was first built.
- No termites, scorpions or rattlesnakes, but mold is a problem because it is very damp a lot of the time.
There are many more - if you ever move to the UK, you will need to unlearn most of what you knew about real estate. However you could start work as an agent on day one with no education!
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Mar 15 - As we mentioned on Mar 10, pricing in the ultra-luxury market has gone a little berserk over the last year. This has caused the annual average $/SF for Paradise Valley single-family detached homes to increase by 16%.
There is no other city even close to this 16% appreciation rate and the majority of cities are still in negative territory. Carefree at 4.1%, Youngtown at 3.8% and Eloy at 3.4% are the only ones over 3%
The premium for living in Paradise Valley is the highest we have ever seen. Is this a new normal or will we see a reversion to the long-term trend line?
At the other end of the scale, Tonopah, Coolidge, Gold Canyon, Sun City West and Arizona City are below -5%.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Mar 14 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The table deteriorated for sellers since last week, but only slightly. The average change in CMI over the past month is +0.4%, down from 0.8%. There is a wide gap between the top and the bottom of the table.
We have 7 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 10 have declined. This is another table with a majority of red markers, with Glendale changing sides after a very good run higher. In fact, despite its CMI moving lower, it jumped into second place over Gilbert, which declined by a larger amount.
Mesa is primarily responsible for the positive average, aided by Avondale. There are no other cities with double figure percentage increases. Goodyear and Buckeye are once again leading the downward movement, the latter now well below 70 with Maricopa opening up a gap after improving by 6%.
10 out of 17 cities are still seller's markets. We have 3 cities that are balanced and 4 are buyer's markets. Queen Creek's stay in the balanced range of 90-110 was short-lived.
Both supply and demand are rising, but both at a very slow pace. Supply has slightly more momentum and so the overall CMI has fallen back from 117 to 115 over the past month. This slight deterioration for sellers is not what they hope to experience in the prime buying season. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to 6.85% on March 8, but has climbed back over 7% again. We are not anticipating significant improvement in demand unless and until we see rates fall lower and stay consistently below 6.5%
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
May 10 - We have been producing a chart similar to the one below for 15 years but it has never quite looked like this before.


This is pretty convincing evidence that buyers of ultra-luxury homes have been willing to follow the market much higher, while homes under $2 million have not seen the same exuberance.
I am not sure how to explain this, but clearly buyers of these homes are not constrained by affordability issues that affect the rest of the market.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Mar 7 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
We have 8 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 9 have declined. This is the first table with a majority of red markers since December 21.
Despite the slim majority moving in favor of buyers, the average change is still positive at 0.8%, but this is down from 1.6% last week. Mesa is single-handedly responsible for the positive average of 0.85, because without mesa the average would be -0.3%. Tempe, Avondale, Chandler and Queen Creek are the only other cities with a substantial move higher over the past month.
Goodyear and Buckeye are leading the downward movement, the latter now below 70 and replacing Maricopa at the foot of the table.
10 out of 17 cities are still seller's markets. We have 4 cities that are balanced and 3 are buyer's markets. Queen Creek has moved back into the balanced range of 90-110.
Demand is still rising, although very slowly. Supply is also still rising, but at a slightly faster pace. This means there is now a small amount of momentum towards a more neutral market. This does not apply as much to the Southeast Valley which is still significantly favorable to sellers. Glendale, Avondale and Phoenix are also in the control of sellers.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Mar 5 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's February filings and her is what we found:
- There were 5,933 closed transactions, up a tiny fraction from 5,910 in February 2023 and up 25% from January.
- There were 1,345 closed new homes, up 11% from 1,208 in February 2023 and up 23% from January.
- There were 4,588 closed re-sale transactions, down 2.4% from 4,702 in February 2023 but up 25% from January.
- The overall median sales price in February was $467,234, up 6.2% from February 2023 and up 2.7% from January.
- The re-sale median sales price was $450,000, up 7.1% from February 2023 and up 2.5% from January.
- The new home median sales price was $516,215, up 0.3% from February 2023 and up 3.3% from January.
Closing counts were again weak in February for re-sales, but robust for new homes. Pricing was impressive for re-sales but less so for new homes, up only 0.3% from a year ago.
New homes took 23% market share. Three years ago new homes were less than 16% of the total units sold.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Mar 2 - The new home market is still relatively buoyant compared to the re-sale market by a large margin.
In January across Maricopa and Pinal Counties, we saw 1,507 new homes closed. This is up almost 14% from 1,324 in January 2023. In contrast normal MLS re-sales in the same territory numbered 2,950. This is not only down 5% from January 2023, it is the lowest monthly total in the last 11 years. These numbers include single-family, townhouse and condo property types.
The numbers look even more extreme if we consider only Pinal County. We saw just 241 normal MLS re-sales in January 2024, down over 19% from 299 in January 2023. New home sales are more numerous than re-sales in Pinal, with 341 in January 2023 growing 21% to 413 in January 2024.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Mar 1 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
We have 10 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 6 have deteriorated and 1 is stationary. Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Surprise, Buckeye and especially Goodyear have once again moved in a direction that is favorable to buyers. .
There has been an average monthly increase of 1.6% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities, down from the 3.1% we recorded last week. Thanks to the strong performance of Chandler, Mesa, Glendale and Tempe, we are still reporting a positive change over the month but the trend is still weakening and on the current path we are heading towards neutrality
10 out of 17 cities are still seller's markets. We have 3 cities that are balanced and 4 are buyer's markets. This is similar to last week, but Maricopa has overtaken Buckeye while Queen Creek has almost achieved a balanced market.
The overall CMI for the market is stuck near 117 and has fallen slightly over the past 14 days. Demand is still rising slowly, but so is supply. Both are heading very slowly back towards normality, which is a reading of 100. They have a long way to go, and at 67.5 the Cromford® Supply Index is still below the Cromford Demand® Index at 78.7, but it is increasing at a slightly faster rate. This means buyers are very slightly improving their bargaining power. This power is strong in the areas with a CMI below 80 and almost non-existent in areas over 150.
More central areas with a lot of mid-range homes continue to be the strongest sub-markets. Upscale areas are looking weaker than last year, as are the outlying areas, particularly in the West Valley.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 29 - Despite the relatively poor performance of rents over the past year, construction plans for multi-family rental units continue unabated. This is surprising to us.
The annual rate for multi-family construction permits stands at 21,261 units at the end of January, close to its highest value ever (21,861). This is almost 3 times as high as it was five years ago across Maricopa and Pinal counties.
Where are all the new tenants coming from?
- Growth of the existing population through births exceeding deaths (nope).
- Inbound migration from other parts of the USA (yes).
- Inbound migration from other parts of the world (yes).
The first of these is not happening. Birth rates in Arizona have fallen along with almost all parts of the developed world. The most numerous generation, the baby boomers, is reaching advanced age and is clearly not going to be fully replaced by the newest one. This is no sign at all that fertility will rise. In fact the opposite is more likely. Arizona reported 55.5 live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44 during 2021. This is down .from 67.3 in 2011, a drop of almost 18%. While a big drop, it is smaller than we are seeing in many other areas. This is expected to become a severe economic problem over the next few decades, especially for countries with the lowest fertility rates, such as South Korea, China and Japan.
Excess housing is not a problem we have had to face as a long-term issue in Arizona, but it is not impossible to imagine. It is already happening in Italy, Japan and in many Eastern European countries. It has even happened in the USA, such as in parts of upstate New York and in economically challenged areas of a few southern states. Through massive over-building, China is estimated to have 50 million homes with no-one to occupy them. How this plays out is still unknown, but confidence in real-estate values is now very shaky across China.
So increases in population to fill these new homes in Arizona will need to come entirely from inbound migration exceeding outbound migration. This strong inward flow currently exists and is needed to compensate for the natural decline in population that would otherwise occur through deaths exceeding births. A corollary of this is that if Arizona became less attractive for inward migration than it is today, it could pose a risk to its residential property market. We should be thankful that we are not currently facing that issue, but we need to avoid being complacent.
How could such a change take place? Climate risks are the most obvious, but not the only ones.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 27 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period October to December 2023. This means the typical home sale closed in mid November, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
We have 3 of the 20 cities showing rising prices for last month, with a lower index for Phoenix for the second time in 10 months. 17 cities declined over the last month with Minneapolis the most affected.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Miami +0.3%
- Las Vegas +0.2%
- Los Angeles +0.1%
- Washington -0.0%
- New York -0.0%
- Atlanta -0.1%
- Charlotte -0.1%
- Chicago -0.2%
- Tampa -0.3%
- Denver -0.5%
- Seattle -0.5%
- Phoenix -0.6%
- Detroit -0.7%
- Cleveland -0.7%
- Dallas -0.7%
- San Diego -0.8%
- Boston -0.8%
- San Francisco -0.9%
- Portland -1.0%
- Minneapolis -1.0%
Phoenix has dropped from 11th to 12th place since last month. The national average increase month to month was -0.4%, so Phoenix fell just below that standard.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- San Diego +8.8%
- Los Angeles +8.3%
- Detroit +8.3%
- Chicago +8.1%
- Charlotte +8.0%
- Miami +7.8%
- New York +7.6%
- Cleveland +7.4%
- Boston +7.2%
- Atlanta +6.3%
- Washington +5.1%
- Las Vegas +4.2%
- Tampa +4.1%
- Phoenix +3.8%
- San Francisco +3.2%
- Seattle +3.0%
- Minneapolis +2.9%
- Denver +2.3%
- Dallas +2.2%
- Portland +0.3%
Phoenix remained in14th place, and is still in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are now showing positive price movement from one year ago with Portland once again doing relatively poorly. Southern California is now showing the highest annual appreciation, closely followed by Detroit and Chicago.
The national average is +3.0% year over year. Phoenix is therefore exceeding that percentage, in contrast to last month.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 26 - Supply is stronger than it was this time last year. It is likely to increase further in 2024 because the number of single-family building permits issued in January was 2,720 across Maricopa and Pinal counties. This is up a massive 147% from January 2023 when we counted only 1,102. The home builders appear to be in an ebullient mood. This is in growing contrast to the re-sale industry which is still struggling with low volumes and weak demand.
The January 2024 count is the highest monthly total since May 2022.
Subscribers to Cromford® Public can view permit counts by county for the whole of Arizona from 1996 to 2024.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 23 - At the start of the year we were hoping that sales volume would have turned around by now and be starting to climb as the Spring season got underway. This is unfortunately not happening yet. The latest reading for the annual closing rate is 72,223 across all areas & types. This is down from 72,359 a week ago and 72,448 the week before that. Not encouraging.
There are a few segments that are seeing some growth, but even in the City of Phoenix, we have dropped below 10,000 single-family closings per year for the first time since 2008.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 22 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
We have 11 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 6 have deteriorated. Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Surprise, Buckeye and Goodyear have moved in a direction that is favorable to buyers. Doing the same over the past week are Cave Creek, Peoria and Glendale, while among the secondary cities, Anthem, Apache Junction, Arizona City, Casa Grande, Laveen, Sun City West and Tolleson all saw their CMI readings fall compared to a week ago.
There has been an average monthly increase of 3.1% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities, down from the 5.3% we recorded last week. Thanks to the strong performance of Chandler, Mesa, Gilbert, Tempe and Phoenix, we are still reporting a positive change over the month but the trend is definitely weakening and this trend may not hold for much longer.
10 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 3 cities that are balanced and 4 are buyer's markets.
The overall CMI for the market is stuck near 117 and has fallen slightly over the past 7 days. Demand is still rising slowly, but so is supply. Both are heading back towards normality, which is a reading of 100. They have a long way to go, and at 66.6 the Cromford® Supply Index is still below the Cromford Demand® Index at 78.1, but it is increasing at a slightly faster rate.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 17 - Listing under contract counts continue to be underwhelming, only reaching 8,182 after 7 weeks of the year. The same time last year we had 8,877 and 12,131 the year before.

The original chart can be found here.
Although demand has improved a little since late 2023, it remains very subdued and is having difficulty catching up to last year, which was pretty poor in the first place. With typical 30-year fixed mortgage rates over 7% again, we are not seeing much enthusiasm among buyers, who were clearly hoping rates would fall below 6.5% at least.
Last year the market caught a second wind in April but ran out of puff 2 months later. It is by no means clear what it will do in 2024, but so far it is merely ticking over, providing very little to get excited about.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 15 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
We have 12 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 5 have deteriorated and a few more have started to decline over the last 2 weeks. Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Surprise and Goodyear are moving in a direction that is favorable to buyers. Doing the same over the past week is Buckeye, while among the secondary cities, Anthem, Apache Junction, Arizona City, Casa Grande, Gold Canyon, Laveen, Litchfield Park, Sun City West and Tolleson all saw their CMI readings fall last week, though not by a large amount.
There has been an average increase of 5.3% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities, down from the 8.1% we recorded last week. We are still reporting a positive change over the month but the trend is definitely weakening and this is not what we expect to see once the Super Bowl is over. That event usually fires the starting pistol for the housing market, but it is not exactly racing out of the blocks in 2024.
We still see weakness in the top end of the market. Demand remains relatively healthy but supply is much stronger than in 2023, especially for homes over $2 million. Cave Creek is doing better, but is recovering from very weak 4Q of 2023.
The healthiest segment is the mid-range, especially in locations closer to the center of Greater Phoenix. This includes Phoenix itself, plus Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Mesa, Tempe, Avondale and Peoria. Several of the most distant and more affordable areas are getting rather more supply than seller's would like. A prime example is Casa Grande.
10 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 3 cities that are balanced and 4 are buyer's markets, with Goodyear joining Queen Creek, Buckeye and Maricopa.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 7 - The good news is that the annual sales rate has stopped falling. The bad news is that it has not started rising.
We appear to be stuck at the very low rate of between 72,100 and 72,600 closed listings per year across all areas & types. Just 2 years ago we were at 110,000, so we are missing some 38,000 deals compared with then.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 13 - Using the contract ratio to see which locations are hot right now, we find Tolleson way out in front. At 135 it is one of only two cities of any size that have a contract ratio over 100. El Mirage is the second with a reading of 134 which has risen dramatically over the past week. These are both inexpensive locations that are not too far out, which seem to be the most in favor at this particular point in time.
Also sporting high contract ratios are Apache Junction (95), Chandler (87), Laveen (87), Glendale (82), Gilbert (80), Tempe (78), Mesa (77) and Sun Lakes (75).
At the bottom of the pack is Paradise Valley with a contract ratio of 20. Cave Creek is at 33, Goodyear is 35, Scottsdale is 36, Gold Canyon 40 and Maricopa 44. These areas are cool on a supply versus demand basis. In some (such as PV and Scottsdale) it is because we have an unusually strong supply of new high-end listings. In others, it is because we have a much healthier supply of homes for sale than in the valley as a whole.
We normally expect lower priced areas to show a higher contract ratio, and vice-versa. On this basis, Goodyear and Maricopa stand out as cooler than expected.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 11 - The percentage of list price that sellers achieve with the contract price is up from 96.61% a year ago to 97.58% today. This reflects a more positive mood than we were seeing a year ago. At 117.5 the Cromford® Market Index is slightly lower than it was last year (120.8) and it is not showing much momentum in either direction, while last year it was moving steadily higher.
Messages from the data are giving us mixed signals. The signals are weak too. Demand is improving but so is supply. Normally this would lead to greater volume but any growth in sales is so slow that it is almost imperceptible, when seasonality is taken into account.
Last year we saw 60.6% growth in listings under contract on February 11 compared with the start of the year. This year the growth is 59.9%, very slightly worse and starting at a lower base point.
Altogether there is not much to get excited about if you are longing for positive movement. On the other hand, there is also not much to get excited about if you are hoping for the market to crash. I have nothing to satisfy either of these positions.
Arizona is famous for its boom and bust real estate cycles, but at this moment it is very much stuck in neutral.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 8 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The market is getting more diverse with some segments slowing down while other are improving for sellers. We still have 13 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, but 4 have deteriorated and several more are starting to decline. Scottsdale and Surprise have joined Fountain Hills and Goodyear in posting s decline in the last month. Also falling in the last week are Buckeye, Maricopa and Paradise Valley.
There has been an average increase of 8.1% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities, down from the 10.5% we recorded last week. We are still seeing a positive change over the month but the trend is slowing and this is not what sellers want to see at this time of year. Supply is growing in the more expensive locations and also in several of the cheapest and most distant areas from Central Phoenix. Paradise Valley has over 200 active listings without a contract for the first time since 2020. Cave Creek has bounced back after a worrying spell well below 100 but is also seeing inventory starting to grow.
Once again doing well over the last month are mid-range areas that are not too far from the center of the valley. These include Glendale, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert and Peoria, as well as Phoenix itself. These markets are looking healthy in terms of supply versus demand, although transaction volume remains poor.
10 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 4 cities that are balanced and 3 that remain buyer's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 7 - The good news is that the annual sales rate has stopped falling. The bad news is that it has not started rising.
We appear to be stuck at the very low rate of between 72,100 and 72,600 closed listings per year across all areas & types. Just 2 years ago we were at 110,000, so we are missing some 38,000 deals compared with then.
Mortgage interest rates have been rising again for the last 3 weeks, so a volume breakout is looking unlikely in the short term.
If we were sailors we would call this the doldrums.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 5 - The Affidavits of Value recorded during January by Maricopa County have now been analyzed and show us the following:
- There were 4,745 closed transactions, up 3.8% from 4,571 in January 2023 but down 5.2% from December.
- There were 1,089 closed new homes, up 10% from 988 in January 2023 but down 21% from December.
- There were 3,656 closed re-sale transactions, up 2% from 3,583 in January 2023 and up 0.9% from December.
- The overall median sales price in January was $455,000, up 3.4% from January 2023 but down 1.1% from December.
- The re-sale median sales price was $439,000, up 4.5% from January 2023 but down 0.2% from December.
- The new home median sales price was $499,990, down 1.1% from January 2023 and down 1.1% from December.
Sales counts were again weak in January, though re-sales were slightly higher than December, which is unusual.
Prices were moderately higher than a year ago for re-sales and the market as whole, but the new home median was lower than last year, mainly because the typical new home is smaller than it was in January 2023.
In summary we have price stability and a low-transaction count, with the new home market taking a higher share of the market (23%) than normal. Three years ago new homes were less than 15% of the total units sold.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Feb 1 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The chart is no longer all-green and the situation is getting interesting. We still have 15 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, but a few of these have seen a decline in the most recent week. These include Scottsdale, Surprise and Maricopa.
There has been an average increase of 10.5% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities, down from the 12.4% we recorded last week. The reason is that supply is mounting rapidly in the more expensive locations and also in some of the cheapest and most distant areas from Central Phoenix. Faring very well over the last month are mid-range areas that are not too far from the center of the valley. These include Glendale, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert and Peoria, along with Phoenix itself. These markets are looking remarkably strong and price increases are to be anticipated here.
It is a different story at the top end of the market, which has been flooded with new listings over the past month. The higher up the price range you go, the more the supply has increased. Paradise Valley has more single-family homes available now than at any time since November 2020. Carefree has the most homes available since July 2020 while Rio Verde has the most since December 2017. Some sellers in these up-scale areas are facing stiff competition from other sellers and it would not be surprising if we see significant price cuts among some of these listings. We have 71 single-family homes priced at $10 million or more. Given that we have never seen more than 29 such listings closed in a single 12-month period, this is a lot of supply. Sellers may need to be either very patient or flexible.
10 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 4 cities that are balanced and 3 that remain buyer's markets.
Among the secondary cities, Anthem, Apache Junction and Tolleson are out-performing by a long way, but El Mirage, Litchfield Park, Sun City West, Sun Lakes and Laveen are weakening and Gold Canyon is already weak at 80.2.
Casa Grande is very weak indeed and has the lowest CMI at 67.8 and trending lower. Buyers are very much in control in Casa Grande.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 30 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period September to November 2023. This means the typical home sale closed in mid October, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
We have 7 of the 20 cities showing rising prices for last month, with a lower index for Phoenix for the first time in 9 months. 13 cities declined over the last month with Seattle the most affected.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Miami +0.3%
- Cleveland +0.3%
- New York +0.3%
- Charlotte +0.2%
- Las Vegas +0.2%
- Tampa +0.1%
- Los Angeles +0.1%
- Atlanta 0.0%
- Boston -0.2%
- Washington -0.3%
- Phoenix -0.3%
- Chicago -0.4%
- Detroit -0.4%
- San Diego -0.5%
- Dallas -0.6%
- Minneapolis -0.8%
- Denver -0.9%
- Portland -1.0%
- San Francisco -1.3%
- Seattle -1.4%
Phoenix has dropped from 2nd to 11th place since last month. The national average increase month to month was -0.18%, so Phoenix fell just below that standard.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- Detroit +8.2%
- San Diego +8.0%
- New York +7.4%
- Cleveland +7.4%
- Los Angeles +7.2%
- Miami +7.2%
- Boston +7.1%
- Chicago +7.0%
- Minneapolis +7.0%
- Atlanta +5.9%
- Washington +4.7%
- Tampa +3.4%
- Minneapolis +2.7%
- Phoenix +2.5%
- Las Vegas +2.1%
- San Francisco +2.0%
- Dallas +1.7%
- Seattle +1.6%
- Denver +1.5%
- Portland -0.7%
Phoenix has crept up from 18th to 14th place, but is still in the bottom half on a year over year basis. 19 of the 20 cities are now showing positive price movement from one year ago and Portland is again doing relatively poorly.
The national average is +5.1% year over year. Phoenix is showing less than half that percentage.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 29 - The Cromford® Market Index has reached a plateau just above 117 and shows little momentum beyond that.

Sellers seem to have lost the reticence they developed last year and are delivering plenty of new supply. 8,278 new listings have been posted in the last 4 weeks. This is the highest total since October 20, 2022 and represents a 16% increase over this time last year. The CMI is stationary because demand and supply are both increasing in step. Which one will become dominant in February?
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 28 - The number of active listings without a contract has crept above 16,000 again. This is still low compared with a normal market, but a strong flow of new listings is creating a small rise from the low point of 14,593 that we saw at the start of the year. With a low closing rate of close to 4,000 per month, this is a healthy level of supply. However, demand continues to rise, with listings under contract up 43% in those same 4 weeks. It would be reasonable to expect the active supply level to peak at this point and start to fall again once February gets under way.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 25 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Yet another all-green chart with 17 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month.
There has been an average increase of 12.4% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities, a strong rise but down slightly from yje 12.6% we recorded last week. The drop in interest rates that started in October is bringing more offers for homes listed for sale. However there are also far more new listings arriving on the market than this time last year, which is stopping the market from heating up too fast. Year to date we have seen 7,467 new listings. This is up more than 22% from 2023 and even up 13% from 2022 and 10% from 2021. Nobody should be complaining about a lack of fresh supply any more, especially in the higher price ranges.
Demand is improving even faster, with 7,428 listings under contract, up 41% compared with the beginning of 2024. The monthly sales rate is still stuck around 4,000 because that depends on contracts signed during December which were unusually weak. We should start to see improving closing volumes in February.
Leading the pack once again are Gilbert, Glendale, Surprise, Phoenix and Peoria. The laggards include Goodyear, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley. The top end of the market is seeing a lot of new supply.
10 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 4 cities that are balanced and 3 that remain buyer's markets, with Buckeye and Maricopa seeing a large amount of competition with supply from new home builders.
With demand and supply both increasing, we should see a recovery in transaction volumes and firm pricing, without the risk of runaway appreciation. However sentiment remains uncertain and volatile, so it would be wise not to look away for very long, or the situation may catch you by surprise. Of course, the Cromford® Report will not be looking away at all. We remain obsessed with this stuff.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 21 - The average price per square foot of active listings just hit a new all-time high of $366.43 yesterday. This surpassed previous peaks set in May 2022 and June 2023.
Active listings are arriving in much larger numbers than last year, when they were unusually scarce. The new listing arrival rate is back to normal, but the seller's expectations seem to be unusually positive, judging by the asking prices. The average $/SF has risen 2.1% in just the last two weeks. These figures are averaged across all areas & dwelling types.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 20 - A few cities have seen a sharp rise in their contract ratio over the past 2 weeks. The percentage increases for single-family detached homes are shown in the table below:
- Apache Junction +64% to 94
- Anthem +47% to 71
- Arizona City +47% to 57
- Gilbert +46% to 65
- Sun Lakes +45% to 59
- Chandler +43% to 72
- Tempe +31% to 53
- Peoria +31% to 49
- Gold Canyon +30% to 32
These are the locations that have experienced the most rapid improvement in demand versus supply.
A handful have gone backwards:
- Fountain Hills - down 11% to 36
- Laveen - down 15% to 67
- Goodyear - down 7% to 33
- Sun City West - down 5% to 36
Phoenix is up 18% to 48.
In most areas, a contract ratio over 40 is consistent with a seller's market. More expensive locations tend to have lower contract ratios, so Paradise is only 21, (up 20%), while Scottsdale is 30 (up 15%).
The contract ratio is one of the leading indicators of a change in the market.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 18 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Another all-green chart with 17 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month.
There has been an average increase of 12.6% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities, a rapid rise and even more positive than the 10% increase we recorded last week. The implication is that the drop in interest rates started in October is finally bringing more offers for homes listed for sale. As is normal in January, new listings are also arriving in stronger numbers, but the total supply remains well below normal. In addition the demand appears to rising at a significantly faster rate than the supply.
Leading the pack this week are Gilbert, Glendale, Surprise, Phoenix and Peoria. The laggards include Maricopa, Goodyear and Paradise Valley, but even these are higher than last week.
10 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 4 cities that are balanced and only 3 that remain buyer's markets, with Cave Creek escaping that zone over the last week.
Sales volume remains very low, but closings are always very week in January due to the dearth of new contract signings in December. The precursor of a recovery is strong growth in new contracts. These numbers are by no means amazing but they do seem to be increasing at a healthy pace and in a pattern reminiscent of a normal sellers' market. Moderate optimism seems to be in order and this is reflected in the most recent home builder confidence survey. The NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index has jumped from a very weak 34 in November to 37 in December and 44 in January. A year ago it stood at only 31, so home builder sentiment is trending higher fast but is yet to reach the heights of last Summer when it stood in the mid-50s.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 11 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
In a development that will bring joy to sellers and dismay to housing-crash forecasters, all 17 cities are now showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month.
There has been an average increase of 10% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities, significantly more positive than the 6% increase we recorded last week. The trend in favor of sellers is accelerating as listings go under contract at a faster rate and supply remains well below normal..
Leading the charge are Fountain Hills, Gilbert, Glendale and Surprise. The laggards include Tempe, Maricopa, Cave Creek, Avondale, Buckeye and Paradise Valley, but even these are now improving for sellers.
9 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 4 cities that are balanced and 4 that remain buyer's markets.
Last week we recommended mild to moderate optimism for the month of January, and this can be modified to remove the reference to mild. It is a good start to the year and transaction volumes appear likely to start improving if this trend holds. We will be examining annual sales counts and looking for stability followed by a gentle increase.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 10 - Expanding on yesterday's observation, the bar chart below ranks the cities by the 2 year change in the annual average price per square foot for closed listings, measured at the end of 2023.
Paradise Valley is way out in front with an increase of over 42%. Other cities with a healthy proportion of luxury homes appear close to the top, including Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, Carefree and Rio Verde.
Arizona City prices have risen the least - though still up 8.5% over the 2 years. The 55+ areas were also slower movers, with Sun City, Sun City West and Sun Lakes all below 12%.
The outer areas are a mixed bag, with Wickenburg, Coolidge, Wittmann, Rio Verde, Anthem, Waddell and New River all in the upper ranges. In contrast Arizona City, Tonopah, Queen Creek, Buckeye and Florence did relatively poorly.
This is the first time since 2000 that we have seen Paradise Valley accelerate well ahead of the pack. It probably has something to do with the number of homes that are torn down and replaced with new builds that have extremely high costs per square foot. This process extends the gap between Paradise valley and Scottsdale home pricing.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 9 - Throughout the last year it has become more and more obvious that the top-end of the market is behaving differently from the entry-level and the mid-range.
Using a long-term average smooths out the data, a very necessary thing for studying the high-end where sample sizes are very low. For example there were no sales over £10 million in December, so the sample set was null for that month.
Above $2,000,000 we see that the annual average $/SF is higher than a year ago, but below $2,000,000 it is lower. The cheaper you go the more 12-month average prices tend to have fallen.
Homes above $10 million have become more expensive and at the fastest rate. Homes between $300,000 and $400,000 have seen their annual average $/SF drop over the last month by more than other price ranges.
We rarely see such a clear pattern, so I conclude that something is bolstering the luxury market. It is not lack of supply, which is plentiful, although active listing counts are not excessive compared to the normal levels at these altitudes. It seems that luxury buyers have been less affected by the high interest rates which appear to have had a much more serious effect on first-time home buyers.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 7 - The Affidavits of Value recorded during December by Maricopa County have now been analyzed and show us the following:
- There were 5,007 closed transactions, down 13% from 5,758 in December 2022 but up 2.5% from November.
- There were 1,385 closed new homes, down 18% from 1,685 in December 2022 but up 14% from November.
- There were 3,622 closed re-sale transactions, down 11% from 4,073 in December 2022 and down 1% from November.
- The overall median sales price in December was $460,000, up 2.2% from December 2022 but down 1.1% from November.
- The re-sale median sales price was $440,000, up 4.8% from December 2022 but down 1.6% from November.
- The new home median sales price was $506,330, down 2.9% from December 2022 but up 0.3% from November.
Sales counts were weak again in December, with re-sales even lower then November, which is unusual.
Prices were moderately higher than a year ago for re-sales and the market as whole, but the new home median was lower than last year, mainly because the typical new home is smaller than it was in 2022.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 4 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The same 4 cities as last week are showing red, and the same 13 cities are seeing their Cromford Market Index increase since December 4. However, there has been an average increase of 6.0% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities, significantly more positive than the 2.0% increase we recorded last week. The means the trend in favor of sellers is starting to accelerate.
Fountain Hills, Surprise, Glendale, Queen Creek and Gilbert are seeing the biggest improvement of 11% or more.
9 out of 17 cities are now seller's markets. We have 4 cities that are balanced and 4 that are buyer's markets. Maricopa is still trailing but it starting a recovering trend having hit a low of 63.7 on December 25.
The very mild optimism that was the order of the day in December is starting to look well-justified. We recommend mild to moderate optimism for the month of January, at least as far as market balance is concerned. Transaction volumes remain subdued but are more likely to recover if the market balance stays favorable to sellers..
Jan 1 - The Cromford® Market Index is moving higher, partly because the count of active listings declined during December (as expected) and partly because there is a slight increase in demand. This increase in demand is very muted however. We did see an small upward move in the closing rate over the last 2 weeks but there has also been a large fall in the number of listings under contract.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Jan 1 - The Cromford® Market Index is moving higher, partly because the count of active listings declined during December (as expected) and partly because there is a slight increase in demand. This increase in demand is very muted however. We did see an small upward move in the closing rate over the last 2 weeks but there has also been a large fall in the number of listings under contract. This is because the closings have taking a big chunk out of the pipeline that has not been replaced by new contract signings.
We are starting 2024 with one of the lowest counts of listings under contract we have ever recorded for the start of any year (5,127). We measured 5,456 last year and 9,393 in 2022. We have to go back all the way to the dark days of 2008 to find a lower count (3,468). 2007 was also very bad, but at 5,197 it just beats the 2024 reading.
With interest rates much lower than 2 months ago, we may start to see more accepted contract activity in the next few weeks. We normally get a lot of new listings in January too, so at this stage it is too early to tell whether supply or demand will grow the fastest. The next 3 weeks will be very important in establishing which trend is dominant.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 28 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The table is now dominated by green with 13 cities seeing their Cromford Market Index increase since November 28. There has been an average increase of 2.0% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities, significantly more positive than the 3.0% decline we recorded last week, confirming the trend in favor of sellers..
Only Paradise Valley, Tempe, Cave Creek and Maricopa are still showing declines over the last month with Goodyear, Surprise and Queen Creek seeing the biggest improvement of 10% or more.
8 out of 17 cities are now seller's markets. We have 5 cities that are balanced and 4 that are buyer's markets. Maricopa is still trailing but appears have turned around, having hit a low of 63.7 on December 25..
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 26 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period August to October 2023. This means the typical home sale closed in mid September, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.
We have 11 of the 20 cities showing rising prices for last month, with a higher index for Phoenix for the eighth month in a row. However 9 cities declined over the last month with Portland the most affected.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Miami +0.6%
- Phoenix +0.6%
- New York +0.5%
- Los Angeles +0.4%
- Boston +0.3%
- Detroit +0.3%
- Las Vegas +0.3%
- Charlotte +0.3%
- Chicago +0.2%
- Atlanta +0.2%
- Cleveland +0.2%
- Tampa -0.0%
- San Diego -0.1%
- Washington -0.3%
- Dallas -0.3%
- Minneapolis -0.3%
- Seattle -0.5%
- Denver -0.6%
- San Fransisco -0.6%
- Portland -0.9%
Phoenix has risen from 5th to 2nd place since last month. The national average increase month to month was +0.17%, so Phoenix remains well ahead of that standard.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- Detroit +8.1%
- San Diego +7.2%
- New York +7.1%
- Chicago +6.9%
- Miami +6.7%
- Boston +6.6%
- Cleveland +6.4%
- Los Angeles +6.1%
- Charlotte +6.0%
- Atlanta +5.3%
- Washington +4.7%
- Minneapolis +2.8%
- Tampa +2.3%
- San Francisco +1.6%
- Denver +1.6%
- Seattle +1.5%
- Dallas +1.2%
- Phoenix +0.9%
- Las Vegas +0.1%
- Portland -0.6%
Phoenix has crept up from 19th to 18th place, but still among the weakest cities on a year over year basis. 19 of the 20 cities are now showing positive price movement from one year ago and once again most of the northern cities are looking good on the year over year measure, along with Southern California.
The national average is +4.8% year over year.
Once again there is no evidence of either a local or national housing price crash over the last 12 months. Only Portland is showing a small decline from 12 months ago.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 23 - The monthly average price per sq. ft. across all areas & types in the ARMLS database is up 6.4% from 12 months ago. $266.78 has moved to $283.87.
Many of the so-called real estate pundits on YouTube and elsewhere were predicting a massive crash of up to 70% (yes, seriously) for Phoenix housing. They did not do this because they have a deep understanding of how the housing market works (obviously). They did it because predictions of disaster catch people's attention, generate views and therefore advertising revenue for Google and the video publisher. There is no shame involved.
You may be wondering what these pundits do when their older videos are proven to be so massively wrong by the real world. They just delete their older videos and publish the same predictions for the next year. Repeat again and again.
Some have been doing this for many years and there always seem to be enough new viewers gullible enough to keep watching their crazy predictions. Being consistently wrong for several years does not seem to dampen their enthusiasm for making videos. They must like the income I suppose. By deleting all their videos more than 3 months old, they hide how appalling their forecasting ability has been shown to be. In the wider economic world, there are many book authors in the same mold who sell lots of books but get their predictions wrong year after year. Harry Dent springs immediately to mind, but there are lots more.
The Cromford® Report market commentary is based on actual data, careful statistical mathematical calculation and over 20 years of experience measuring the Phoenix market. We never delete any of our materials. You can check what we said against what actually happened.
During the first quarter, several subscribes wrote to us and said we might be too optimistic, but the numbers never lie to us. The housing market has survived intact and is now in better health price-wise than it was this time last year, though admittedly we could all do with a lot more transaction volume. These emails were valuable to me because I took them as a signal that public perception was much worse than reality, even for experienced and highly competent professionals.
The last 200 years years have shown us that for home prices to go significantly down, we have to have an excess of homes for sale chasing too few buyers. Right now, buyers are indeed thin on the ground, but we still have overall supply well below normal and heading lower. For a housing crash we would need a flood of new homes for sale. The reason it might occur is not important, but without this flood, price will remain stable at worst.
Supply is going down, but this is normal for December every year. The important stuff will happen in January. Will more than the usual number of buyers emerge due to falling mortgage rates, or will we see a surge in new listings. The balance between these two measures will determine the direction of prices in the first quarter of 2024 and anyone who tells you they already know what will happen is selling you a lie.
The future is largely unknown, but at least we can understand the present properly. The Cromford® Market Index is in the balanced zone around 105 and increasing slightly. To conclude we have any credible evidence of an imminent crash would be simply illogical.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 21 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
There has been an average decline of 3.0% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities above over the last month. This is a big improvement over the 6.7% decline we saw last week, but the average CMI is still somewhat lower than a month ago. However the average CMI has not fallen over the past week has risen by 1% and we are now officially in a recovery trend.
Moving up over the past month, Scottsdale, Goodyear and Chandler have been joined by Fountain Hills, Surprise, Queen Creek and Buckeye. Only Paradise Valley, Cave Creek and Maricopa are still showing double-digit percentage declines over the last month.
8 out of 17 cities are still seller's markets. We have 4 cities that are balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets. Maricopa stands out as by far the weakest market of the 17 and it has yet to turn around..
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 21 - If we are prepared to use completed ARMLS rental listings as our source, then the average rent in Greater Phoenix has been stuck between $1.32 and $1.43 per sq. ft. per month since July 21, almost two and a half years ago. The 12 month moving average is $1.35 and the reading for December 2023 is currently $1.32. Given that inflation has been running hot during this period, the effective cost of renting has come down relative to average incomes, which have definitely increased (though not for everyone, especially some of those working in real estate whose income depends on transaction volumes).

The interactive version of this chart is available here.
This could be interpreted as making renting more attractive than buying. The Economist, Wall Street Journal and New York Times have recently come out with articles concluding exactly that.
This is based on comparing the monthly cost of renting versus the monthly cost of a typical mortgage. The shift has been dramatic, because rents have gone down in real terms (relative to the value of the dollar), while home prices and interest rates have both risen much faster than inflation. This is a key reason why demand to buy a home is low right now. We can see from the multi-family permit charts in Cromford® Public that developers have created a huge number of new apartments to cope with the rental demand along with an increasing number of build-to-rent single-family homes and condos. This massive additional supply has stopped rents rising.
But this is not the complete story. There are many benefits and costs associated with owning a home that are not taken into account by that analysis of the basic monthly expenses. These can completely swamp the monthly cost numbers, but building them into a model is often tricky and requires forecasts of the future value of a home, which is fraught with uncertainty at any time. If you rent, the landlord is the one who benefits from any appreciation in the asset but is also responsible for much of the costs of ownership, such as property tax, maintenance, HOA dues, building insurance, etc. For the past 80 years, real-estate has appreciated in value, except for a few temporary isolated periods. There are always some pundits calling for a massive fall in prices, but 95% of the time they are proven wrong. By renting, you are forgoing any chance of sharing in the benefits of appreciation, or indeed the costs of ownership.
In an analysis of household wealth, we find the most significant component of net worth is usually the equity that household has built up in either the home they live in or the homes they invested in to rent out as landlords, or both. You rarely find households with significant net worth living in rented accommodation, unless they intend to move somewhere else within the next couple of years. A telling statistic is that the net worth of the average homeowner is 44 times that of the average tenant.
The advantage of owning over renting is smaller now than it was a few years ago, but unless you plan to stay in a property less than 4 years, it is usually financially beneficial to buy if you possibly can. Just make sure you can afford the repayments before you jump, because buying a home and losing it to foreclosure is definitely unhealthy for your finances.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 18 - We are still waiting for the annual sales count to give us some encouraging sign.

In a good strong market this number is over 100,00. We are currently below 72,600 and despite the improving interest rate picture, the annual sales rate is drifting slightly lower. This measure is free of seasonal effects, because it measures a whole year of sales activity, so if the market is improving we should see a rising trend, no matter what time of year. Admittedly closed sales counts are a trailing indicator, but it would be reasonable to expect something better than 73,000 if the market is starting to recover its mojo.
The general opinion seems to be that things will improve in January. If this chart starts to move higher, we will start to believe that opinion has merit. Right now we wait to be convinced.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 16 - The Cromford® Market Index for all areas & types appears to have finished its decline and has settled around 104, in the balanced zone between 90 and 110. In fact it reached a low point of 104.0 last Monday and Tuesday and has eased up up 104.2 today.
This partly because the Demand Index has stopped declining and partly because the Supply Index has stopped rising. They are all showing little inclination to move at the moment and we probably won't get much action, or feel for direction, until we get into the second week of January.
Perhaps surprisingly, the lower interest rates have not brought a lot of new signings. The number of homes under contract is only 5,777 today, the lowest count since January 8 and well below the 6,333 we measured the same time last year. Yesterday's rate for 30-year fixed loans was 6.64%, while the 30-year FHA rate was 6.14%. These are much lower than a month ago and far below the rates in mid to late October.
It is entirely possible that buyers are waiting for January rather than committing themselves to house-hunting during December.
With the CMI above 100, we should not be seeing significant weakness in pricing, so I hope buyers are not waiting for overall price drops. Individual listings give us price cuts all the time, but these are balanced by new listings coming in at higher levels. Any price weakness is likely to be concentrated in the areas with the lowest CMI, such as Maricopa, Buckeye, Queen Creek (including San Tan Valley), Cave Creek and Surprise. Among the smaller cities, Casa Grande, Gold Canyon and Sun City look the weakest. In contrast we see strength building in Apache Junction and Litchfield Park.,
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 14 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
There has been an average decline of 6.7% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities above over the last month. This is an improvement over the 9.9% decline we saw last week, but the average CMI is still significantly lower than a month ago.
We are watching to see which cities start to move in a positive direction, and this week Scottsdale has joined Goodyear and Chandler. But others, like Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, Maricopa, Glendale and Phoenix are still showing double-digit percentage declines over the last month.
Given how much interest rates have fallen since October - and the typical 30-year fixed rate is down to 6.62% today - everyone seems to be expecting the housing market to react very positively. Indeed home-builder's stocks have been on a rampage. Our housing market numbers tell a much less exciting story. Demand has edged slightly higher in quite a few places, but given the extremely low monthly sales rates, it would take a very long time to get back to normal at the current rate of improvement. Supply normally declines sharply between Thanksgiving and New Year's Eve, but in 2023, it is barely declining at all. The market reaction to the lower rates is so-far underwhelming.
9 out of 17 cities are still seller's markets, though Tempe, Mesa and Avondale are only a tad higher than the balanced zone. We have 3 cities that are balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets. Maricopa stands out as the weakest market of the 17 with buyers have a strong negotiation advantage in that city, thanks to its plentiful supply.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 11 - After an unexpectedly strong interval in November, closed prices have fallen back to an average around $285 per sq. ft. and are now slightly lower than they were 2 months ago.
However, the average $/SF for listings under contract has not dropped and is still holding the line at $325. We always expect any unusually wide gap between the green line and the brown line to get smaller.
The overall market is now close to balance but some areas in a buyer's market and other's in a seller's market. In these conditions the most likely result is for pricing to remain very calm.
Those expecting and/or hoping for strong price moves either up or down are probably going to be disappointed. Conditions would need to change a lot for either event to occur.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 10 - An interesting trend jumps out from one of the charts in our Cromford Public section:
This is New Home Sales for single-family only and shows that the annual average size of a new home peaked in March 2015 and has been dropping almost every month since then. In October 2023 the annual average was 2,216 sq. ft., which is down 367 sq. ft. 14% from the peak. When looking at the median or average price of a new home, please take into account that new homes bought recently will on average be significantly smaller than those bought earlier.
The same does not apply to new townhouse / condo properties, which typically average 1,700 sq. ft. and are on a gentle upward trend since 2013.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 7 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
There was an average decline of 9.9% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities above. This is an improvement over the 13.1% decline we saw last week, but it is still a negative move. We a watching to see which cities start to move in a positive direction. So far we have Goodyear which has raised its CMI an impressive 13% and is now back in the balanced zone after spending 55 days as a buyer's market. Chandler has also shown an improvement over the last month, but this is a less impressive 2%. However it gets credit for staying at the top of the table and its lead over Fountain Hills has opened up significantly.
The remaining 15 cities have all moved down, with Paradise Valley collapsing by 26% and now below 100. Cave Creek, Glendale and Maricopa are also heavily down and the all-important Phoenix is down 15%. Demand is clearly picking up, but not as energetically as you might expect after almost 100 basis points have been lopped off the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. We hear that purchase applications for mortgages jumped 35% last week, but this is from an extremely low level.
A few cities have seen their CMI move higher in the last week: Surprise, Buckeye, Avondale, Queen Creek, Mesa and Scottsdale. However, some of this is due to the usual seasonal weakening of supply and cannot be fully credited to stronger demand.
9 out of 17 cities are still seller's markets with Paradise Valley, Goodyear and Peoria in the balanced zone while Cave Creek, Surprise, Buckeye, Queen Creek and Maricopa are all buyer's markets. Maricopa and Buckeye have dropped below 70, so buyers have a strong advantage in these locations.
So in summary. we are seeing gradual improvement in the demand trend, and supply is no longer increasing in most areas.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 6 - Despite high mortgage rates and reports of delinquency problems in car loans and credit cards, the vast majority of borrowers are keeping current with their mortgage payments.
Serious delinquencies on home loans fell to a 17-year low in October, according to Black Knight Financial Services. Although national foreclosure starts jumped to their highest level in 18 months, they are still 25% below pre-pandemic levels.
You can check the pending foreclosures for Maricopa County in our foreclosure chart, but I can save you the time. The is nothing interesting to see. We are still below 1,000 pending foreclosures, which for a county as large as Maricopa, is a very small number.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 5 - The Affidavit of Value recorded during November by Maricopa County have now been analyzed and show us the following:
- There were 4,887 closed transactions, down 8% from 5,333 in November 2022 and down 12% from October.
- There were 1,220 closed new homes, down 11% from 1,364 in November 2022 and down 18% from October.
- There were 3,667 closed re-sale transactions, down 8% from 3,969 in November 2022 and down 10% from October.
- The overall median sales price in December was $465,000, up 2.2% from November 2022 and up 0.3% from October.
- The re-sale median sales price was $447,000, up 4.0% from November 2022 and up 0.6% from October.
- The new home median sales price was $505,050, down 4.7% from November 2022 and down 0.7% from October.
New home sales were weaker in November and the median price was down too. However the average size of a new home has been falling and this accounts for about half of the median price drop since November 2022. November is always a weak month for closings, especially new homes. Many builders tend to focus on closings by year end and quarter end, rather than mid-quarter.
The re-sale market remained very quiet, with prices holding up well.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Dec 2 - The typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped significantly since October, falling from 7.92% on October 30 down to 7.09% as of December 1.
You might have expected this significant drop in the cost of buying a home to result in a jump in the number of people contracting to do so. There have been some reports of a jump in mortgage applications, but as far as the ARMLS database is concerned, the number of listings under contract is distinctly underwhelming - 5,817 as of December 2 and still well below the 2022 number.
A few areas have perked up, but others have shown no enthusiasm at all and overall I would describe buyer's reaction to the reduced rates as very muted.
Perhaps they are waiting for the new year?
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov 30 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
There was an average decline of 13.1% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities above. This is an improvement over the 15.2% decline we saw last week, and a more substantial improvement than last week.
The majority of cities were worse than average, including Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, Glendale, Phoenix, Surprise, Mesa, Peoria, Maricopa, Queen Creek and Avondale.
Once again, Goodyear stands out as the only major city that saw its CMI improve over the last month. and it has almost escaped its buyer's market and resumed a balanced status. Also doing relatively well are Chandler, Fountain Hills and Tempe. Scottsdale and Buckeye have improved over the last week
9 out of 17 cities are still sellers markets with Paradise Valley and Peoria in the balanced zone while Cave Creek, Surprise, Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa are all buyers' markets. Maricopa, Queen Creek and Buckeye have dropped below 70, so buyers have a strong advantage in these locations. The situation for sellers is worse because there is so much competition from new home builders in these areas.
We are seeing gradual improvement in the demand trend, and supply has finally stopped increasing in most areas, which is what we expect to see once Thanksgiving is over..
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov28 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period July to September 2023. This means the typical home sale closed in mid August, more than 3 months ago.
We have 15 of the 20 cities showing rising prices for last month, with a higher index for Phoenix for the seventh month in a row. However 5 cities declined over the last month.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Detroit +0.68%
- New York +0.62%
- Las Vegas +0.60%
- Miami +0.59%
- Phoenix +0.54%
- Tampa +0.54%
- Boston +0.47%
- Charlotte +0.46%
- Cleveland +0.33%
- Chicago +0.27%
- Los Angeles +0.19%
- Washington +0.13%
- Atlanta +0.10%
- San Francisco +0.06%
- San Diego +0.05%
- Dallas -0.13%
- Denver -0.35%
- Portland -0.41%
- Minneapolis -0.43%
- Seattle -0.53%
Phoenix has risen from 6th to 5th place since last month. The national average increase month to month was +0.30%, so Phoenix remains comfortably ahead of that standard.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- Detroit +6.7%
- San Diego +6.5%
- New York +6.3%
- Chicago +6.0%
- Boston +5.3%
- Los Angeles +5.2%
- Cleveland +5.1%
- Miami +5.0%
- Charlotte +4.7%
- Washington +4.4%
- Atlanta +4.3%
- Minneapolis +2.4%
- Tampa +1.5%
- Denver +1.0%
- Seattle +0.9%
- San Francisco +0.5%
- Dallas +0.3%
- Portland -0.7%
- Phoenix -1.2%
- Las Vegas -1.9%
Phoenix lies once again in 19th place, and among the weakest cities on a year over year basis. 17 of the 20 cities are now showing positive price movement from one year ago and once again the northern cities are looking good on the year over year measure, along with Southern California.
The national average is +3.9% year over year.
We can see that Phoenix pricing has been much weaker than the national average between 3Q 2022 and 3Q 2023.
We can also see that those predicting a nationwide housing crash over the 12 months were wrong. No surprise there.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov 25 - Here is the weekly chart of active listing counts for all areas & types for 2022 and 2023:
We can see that the count has not yet stopped rising although the rate of increase is slowing down. Last year we saw the count decline from early November. We appear destined to end 2023 with supply roughly the same as we started in January, around the 16,000 mark.
So far, demand is showing only a weak positive response to lower interest rates and the overall market is in a balanced situation, with seller's still having an advantage in the most sought-after locations while buyers have the edge at the fringes.
Prices continue to hold up well, probably because we don't see the widespread fear that dominated market sentiment 12 months ago. However 12 months ago we were at a turning point where the situation started to improve, while right now we are waiting for the market to stop deteriorating.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov 23 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
There was an average decline of 15.2% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities above. This is an improvement over the 16.1% decline we saw last week, but not a very big one.
The majority of cities were worse than average, including Paradise Valley, Cave Creek,Glendale, Phoenix, Surprise, Mesa, Peoria, Maricopa, Queen Creek, Avondale, Scottsdale and Buckeye.
Goodyear stands out as the only major city that saw its CMI improve over the last month. Also doing relatively well are Tempe, Fountain Hills and Chandler.
10 out of 17 cities are still sellers markets with Peoria and Cave Creek in the balanced zone while Surprise, Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa are all buyers' markets. Maricopa and Queen Creek are below the 80 level and Buckeye has dropped below 70.
We are seeing a little improvement in the demand trend, but supply continues to increase in most areas, which is unusual for the third week of November.
Nov 15 - We have the first signs that demand is starting to recover, thanks to the lower mortgage rates that now prevail. Today we are looking at 7.45% for a typical 30-year fixed loan and 6.77% for FHA. These are still not great rates, but preferable to the 7.88% and 7.31% that prevailed on October 31.
Today's contract ratio for all areas & types is 40.56, up from 37.46 on November 4. It is still lower than a month ago, but the trend has changed direction. It had been in clear decline between late May and early November.
Supply usually weakens each year once we get to Thanksgiving. If demand can hold its current trend, then we are optimistic that the weakening market can stabilize by the end of the year. Of course, all bets are off if interest rates move higher again.
Nov 13 - The monthly table of 41 cities ranked by annual average $/SF has been published today.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov 20 - After the recent fall in mortgage interest rates, it is reasonable to expect some signs of a recovery in demand. That is likely to show up in the number of listings under contract.
Can we see any signs of improvement? Yes - November is looking slightly better than October, taking the low level at the end of October into account. In fact it has the best monthly profile since May.
Are we impressed? No, not really. We are still stuck below 6,600 listings under contract and that is far below normal for the time of year. It would take some solid growth before the end of 2023 before we would count ourselves impressed. Finishing the year comfortably over 7,000 would do that, but I am not holding my breath.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov 19 - The Cromford® Market Index for all areas & types has fallen from 113.9 to 109.4 over the last 7 days and is now within the balanced zone of 90 to 110.
It is currently still in a downward trend with supply rising and demand falling. Seasonal patterns make it likely that this downtrend will flatten out over the next 6 weeks, but we will have to wait and see if this materializes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov 16 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
There was an average decline of 16.1% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities above. This is slightly less bad than the 16.3% decline we saw last week.
Well above average declines in CMI can be seen in Cave Creek, Buckeye, Mesa, Scottsdale, Glendale, Paradise Valley, Surprise and Phoenix. The slowest declines are to be found in Goodyear and Tempe. In fact Goodyear has started to see its CMI rise over the past week.
10 out of 17 cities are still sellers markets with Peoria and Cave Creek in the balanced zone while Surprise, Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa are all buyers' markets. Maricopa and Queen Creek are below the 80 level and Buckeye has dropped below 70.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov 15 - We have the first signs that demand is starting to recover, thanks to the lower mortgage rates that now prevail. Today we are looking at 7.45% for a typical 30-year fixed loan and 6.77% for FHA. These are still not great rates, but preferable to the 7.88% and 7.31% that prevailed on October 31.
Today's contract ratio for all areas & types is 40.56, up from 37.46 on November 4. It is still lower than a month ago, but the trend has changed direction. It had been in clear decline between late May and early November.
Supply usually weakens each year once we get to Thanksgiving. If demand can hold its current trend, then we are optimistic that the weakening market can stabilize by the end of the year. Of course, all bets are off if interest rates move higher again.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov 13 - The monthly table of 41 cities ranked by annual average $/SF has been published today.
It is striking how far Paradise Valley has moved in a positive price direction (12.7%) over the past 12 months, opening up an even wider gap with the rest of Greater Phoenix. Scottsdale has also moved slightly higher by 1.3%, but Paradise Valley is now priced at 71% higher than Scottsdale, up from a 54% premium last year.
Wittmann and Youngtown, both tiny and therefore subject to volatility, are the only other cities showing a positive move over the past 12 months, based on the ANNUAL average $/SF. The monthly average $/SF for these locations is close to useless because of the small sample size for sales in a single month.
At the other end of the scale, Arizona City, Sun City West, Sun City, Tonopah, Queen Creek, Avondale, Florence and Surprise have seen the largest declines in their average $/SF, down more than 5%. We conclude that the huge rise in mortgage rates has negatively affected the lower priced areas on the perimeter of the valley more than the luxury locations and those closer to the center.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov 9 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Based on the numbers in this table. the market is still weakening at a fast rate, with an average decline of 16.3% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities above. This is worse than the 15.8% decline we saw last week.
Well above average declines in CMI can be seen in Cave Creek, Buckeye, Mesa, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Surprise and Phoenix. The slowest declines are to be found in Gilbert, Goodyear and Tempe.
10 out of 17 cities are still sellers markets with Peoria and Cave Creek in the balanced zone while Surprise, Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa are all buyers' markets. Maricopa has joined Queen Creek and Buckeye below the 80 level. Among the secondary cities, Casa Grande and Gold Canyon are also below 80 while Litchfield Park is below 90.
Tolleson, Laveen, Sun Lakes, Anthem, El Mirage and Apache Junction are the strongest of the secondary cities, all with CMIs over 180.
Despite the above, we are just starting to see a slight tick-up in some of the listings-under-contract numbers, as the market reacts to the very recent decline in mortgage rates since the start of November.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov 6 - Despite the plunging Cromford® Market Index, pricing trends have been largely favorable over the past 2 months. Here is the 6 month chart showing daily readings for the active listing average $/SF, under contract average $/SF, closed list price average $/SF and closed sale price average $/SF.
The active listing $/SF is lower than it was 6 months ago, but that follows the usual seasonal pattern with a weak 3Q followed by a mild recovery. The current trend is pretty flat with optimistic new listing prices being balanced by price cuts for existing listings that remain on the market for more than a few weeks.
Under contract $/SF is a lot higher than it was 6 months ago, around $320 compared with $302, a rise of around 6%. However the trend for the last month has flattened.
The list $/SF for closed listings stands at $303, up from $287 six months ago, a rise of just under 6%.
The sale $/SF for closed listings stands at $297, up from $280 six months ago, a rise of just over 6%.
Closed listings are achieving a slightly higher percentage of the final asking price compared with 6 months ago. It is up from 97.58% to 97.97%, a positive sign.
Since the end of August the gap between the under contract line (green) and the closed line (brown) has been too big. When this happens, it is safe to predict the gap will close. In this case, prices for closed listings rose significantly while under contract prices remained stable. The gap is now back to normal. Closed prices are unlikely to rise much further from this point unless under contract prices establish an upward trend again. Given the balance between supply and demand, it seems more likely that under contract pricing will weaken, but we will have to wait and see what recent moves in interest rate do to buyer enthusiasm.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov 3 - The Affidavit of Value recorded during October by Maricopa County have now been analyzed and show us the following:
- There were 5,543 closed transactions, down 8% from 6,019 in October 2022 and down 6% from September.
- There were 1,480 closed new homes, up 5% from 1,410 in October 2022 but down 9% from September.
- There were 4,063 closed re-sale transactions, down 12% from 4,609 in October 2022 and down 5% from September.
- The overall median sales price in October was $470,000, unchanged from October 2022 and up 4.4% from September.
- The re-sale median sales price was $445,000, down 0.6% from October 2022 but up 1.1% from September.
- The new home median sales price was $538,422, up 1.8% from October 2022 and up 12% from September.
New home sales have remained resilient and grew year over year, despite the extremely weak demand in the re-sale market.
Unlike the last 2 months, the new home numbers were not impacted by large buy-to-rent transactions with low unit prices. Consequently the new home median sales price jumped to $538,422, the highest we have ever recorded. It is not that there were no BTR transactions in September - they were just sold at more normal new home prices.
These numbers are for single family and townhouse / condo homes.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Nov 2 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The market is still weakening and at a faster rate, with an average decline of 15.8% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities above. This is worse than the 14.5% decline we saw last week.
Well above average declines in CMI can be seen in Cave Creek, Buckeye, Mesa, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Chandler, Peoria , Surprise and Phoenix. Falling but at a lower speed are Gilbert, Avondale, Maricopa and Tempe.
11 out of 17 cities are still sellers markets with Peoria and Surprise in the balanced zone while Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa are all buyers' markets. Queen Creek has joined Buckeye below the 80 level. Among the secondary cities, Casa Grande is also below 80 while Gold Canyon and Litchfield Park are below 90.
Tolleson, Laveen, Anthem, El Mirage and Apache Junction are the strongest of the secondary cities with CMIs over 190.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 31 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period June to August 2023. This means the typical home sale closed in mid July, more than 3 months ago.
We have 13 of the 20 cities showing rising prices for last month, with a higher index for Phoenix for the sixth month in a row. However 7 cities declined slightly over the last month.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Miami +1.21%
- Las Vegas +1.10%
- Detroit +0.81%
- Charlotte +0.77%
- Atlanta +.76%
- Phoenix +0.67%
- Boston +0.60%
- San Diego +0.58%
- New York +0.50%
- Los Angeles +0.45%
- Tampa +0.38%
- Seattle +0.18%
- Chicago +0.04%
- Denver -0.06%
- Washington -0.08%
- Minneapolis -0.12%
- Portland -0.12%
- Dallas -0.18%
- Cleveland -0.20%
- San Francisco -0.47%
Phoenix has fallen from 2nd to 6th place since last month. The national average increase month to month was +0.43%, so Phoenix remains comfortably ahead of that standard.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- Chicago +5.0%
- New York +5.0%
- Detroit +4.8%
- San Diego +4.1%
- Cleveland +3.9%
- Atlanta +3.4%
- Washington +3.4%
- Miami +3.3%
- Los Angeles +3.2%
- Boston +3.1%
- Charlotte +3.0%
- Minneapolis +1.9%
- Tampa +0.0%
- Denver -0.6%
- Portland -1.5%
- Seattle -1.5%
- Dallas -1.7%
- San Francisco -2.5%
- Phoenix -3.9%
- Las Vegas -4.9%
Phoenix lies in 19th place, the same as last month and among the weakest cities on a year over year basis. 13 of th 20 cities are now showing positive price movement from one year ago and once again the northern cities are looking good on the year over year measure.
The national average is +2.6% year over year.
We can see that Phoenix pricing has been much weaker than the national average between 3Q 2022 and 3Q 2023.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 30 - Although the market is weakening quickly, you couldn't tell from the closed listing prices we are recording:

Breaking through the $293 level for the first time since July 12, 2022, this chart gives us the impression of a market in robust health.
This underlines the fact that sales pricing, even when measured every day, is very much a trailing indicator. Many of these prices were established in contracts agreed a few months ago when the Cromford® Market Index was still over 160, representing a strong seller's market with declining inventory. Sales volumes have also held up better in the luxury market than at the opposite end of the market, where first time buyers are having difficulty affording a mortgage. This bias towards the higher end pushes the average $/SF upwards.
The leading indicators, such as the CMI, contract ratio, days of inventory and listing success rate are all reflecting the recent step down in demand and the rapid rise in active listings.
This situation also shows us how poor the S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index is in representing the current state of the market. Not only is the index a trailing indicator, it is 2 to 3 months behind the chart above because it uses a 3-month average for sales that closed between 2 and 5 months ago.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 28 - Active listing counts are rising at the second fastest rate we have ever witnessed for late October. Since the low point of 11,473 (excluding UCB and CCBS) in late July they have climbed almost 35% and are rapidly approaching 16,000. The only year which saw a faster rate was 2005:
2005 saw an increase of almost 80% during the same period, so we are not in that territory. But the increase in available supply is making life more difficult for sellers since they now have to compete far more aggressively for the relatively few buyers out there.
As you might expect, price cuts have risen sharply since July and we are recording well over 2,000 cuts per week. As recently as September, we were seeing fewer than 1,500.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 26 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The market is weakening at a faster rate, with an average decline of 14.5% in the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 cities above. This is worse than the 13.4% decline we saw last week.
Well above average declines in CMI can be seen in Cave Creek, Buckeye, Chandler and Mesa. Falling but at a lower speed are Gilbert, Avondale, Maricopa and Tempe.
12 out of 17 cities are still sellers markets with Surprise in the balanced zone while Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa are all buyers' markets. Buckeye has even slipped below the 80 level.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 23 - Although most measurements of the housing market in Greater Phoenix have shown significant deterioration over the past month, this does not extend to prices
The monthly average sales price per sq. ft. has just breached $290 to the upside, while the average $/SF for listings under contract remains comfortably above $320.
As we see inventory rise we also see more sellers cutting their asking price, but this has not filtered through to the chart above.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 21 - The chart below shows us quite how emphatically the housing market hates interest rates at 8%.
As recently as 3 weeks ago, we had just over 2 months of supply. Now we are headed over 3 months and we should all know that 3.5 to 4.5 months represents a balanced market. At the current rate of change we are only 2 weeks away from that range.
Calculating months of supply involves 2 numbers
- The number of active listings (in this chart we have excluded those in UCB or CCBS status).
- The monthly sales rate.
Item number one is now growing quickly after a long period of weakness.
Item number two is in a long term downtrend as demand continues to drop.
Both numbers are working together to push months of supply sharply higher
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 19 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
All 17 cities have seen their CMI drop over the last month, meaning that power is quickly slipping away from sellers and moving towards buyers. The average CMI in the table has fallen by 13.4%, well above the 11.2% we measured two weeks ago.
Although almost all pundits predicted rates would fall in the second half of 2023, the typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now around 8.03%, up from 7.33 a month ago. In historical terms, this is unexceptional, but the majority of home-buyers are too youmg to have experienced rates at this level before. Unless they are working with a seller who is prepared to buy-down their interest rate, the majority of buyers lack enthusiasm to jump in at this point and many are choosing to wait until times get easier. People would still like to buy a home eventually, so latent demand is rising while actual demand falls.
Supply is now rising at the fastest rate so far this year. The combination of lower demand and higher supply is just what sellers don't want.
Well above average declines in CMI can be seen in Chandler, Cave Creek, Buckeye and Mesa. Falling but at a lower speed are Gilbert, Avondale, Glendale, Queen Creek, Fountain Hills, Tempe and Surprise.
12 out of 17 cities are still sellers markets with Surprise in the balanced zone while Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa are all confirmed as buyers' markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 17 - The Cromford® Market Index managed to stay above 160 until August 19, but since then it has declined at an accelerating rate in the face of increasingly unattractive mortgage interest rates.

The 30-year jumbo rate has already breached 8% and the 30-year fixed rate looks likely to follow, after jumping higher at the start of this week. Demand has been weak all year but these rates are driving it to lower levels. At 73.2 the Cromford® Demand Index is the lowest we have recorded since January 11 and is still trending down. In January the Cromford® Supply Index was also heading down fast, keeping the market balanced in favor of sellers. This month we are seeing supply increase, so balance is shifting in favor of buyers.
Although we are not in the balanced CMI range between 90 and 110 yet, the current trend would place us there within a matter of weeks. This is not a reassuring situation for sellers and their confidence is much weaker than it was a couple of months ago. Buyers have a better negotiating position but those needing finance are increasingly dismayed at the cost of their monthly repayment. Both sides are unhappy, leading to weakening transaction volumes and lower closing rates. This spreads the hurt across all sectors of the housing industry. New home builders are the least affected, since they have the financial resources to buy-down the interest rates for their customers and so maintain better sales volumes and pricing.
The listing success rate has declined to around 76% after staying over 80% until the end of July. The positive news is that it has not dropped to the level of this time last year, when we seeing success rates in the low 60s.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 12 - Observations will resume on October 17. Mike Orr is travelling and unable to post for a few days.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 8 - For much of this year, the new listing counts have been extremely low - often more than 40% below the same period in 2022. We saw somewhere between 6,500 and 7,500 new listings every 28 days between May 25 and Oct 2. Since Oct 3, we have been measuring slightly over 7,500 listings per 28 days. The normal level is 9,500 to 11,000. So we are still far below normal for the time of year, but not as far down as for the last 4 months.
The extra new listings are coming just as demand takes another leg down, which means the active listing pool is getting more input and less output. You would therefore expect the active listing count to grow, and you would be correct. For all areas & types we saw 13,901 active listings without a contract on Saturday, up 13,432 a week earlier and 13,103 the week before that.
With monthly and annual sales counts dropping, inventory measures such as months of supply and days of inventory are increasing. Though they are still below normal, the competition among sellers is growing and the buyers that remain have more choice. The market is softer than during the second and third quarters and upward pressure on prices is dissipating.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 6 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This is the most dismal table for sellers we have posted since November 10 last year. All 17 cities have seen their CMI drop over the last month, meaning that power is slipping away from sellers and moving towards buyers.
We do not have to look far to find the most obvious reason - mortgage interest rates. While most pundits predicted rates would fall in the second half of 2023, the shortage of buyers for bonds have caused yields to rise. The typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now around 7.7%, up from 7.3% a month ago. Understandably, buyers are far from enthusiastic about this and in some cases fail affordability tests they could once have passed easily.
This is not the whole story however, because supply is now rising at the fastest rate we have seen since last year. A combination of lower demand and higher supply means the average CMI in the table has fallen by 11.2%, well above the 9.4% drop we measured last week and 7.8% two weeks ago.
Well above average declines can be seen in Chandler, Goodyear, Buckeye, Maricopa and Mesa. Falling but at a much lower speed are Fountain Hills, Tempe and Surprise.
13 out of 17 cities are still sellers markets (for now) with Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa in the balanced zone. However these 4 cities are now below the 100 mark implying that buyers have a slight edge in negotiations. On the current trajectory, these 4 could all be confirmed as buyers' markets before the end of the month.
Among the secondary cities, Laveen and Tolleson did manage small increases in their CMI, but the other 10 cities declined like their larger counterparts.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 5 - The Affidavit of Value recorded during September by Maricopa County have now been analyzed and show us the following:
- There were 5,896 closed transactions, down 18% from 7,174 in September 2022 and down 10% from August.
- There were 1,624 closed new homes, up 1.6% from 1,599 in September 2022 and up 1% from August.
- There were 4,272 closed re-sale transactions, down 23% from 5,575 in September 2022 and down 14% from August.
- The overall median sales price in September was $450,000, down 2.8% from September 2022 and down 2.0% from August.
- The re-sale median sales price was $440,000, down 1.1% from September 2022 and down the same percentage from August.
- The new home median sales price was $479,102, down 7.4% from September 2022 and down 4.2% from August.
Because the market was already suffering from high interest rates in 4Q 2022, the year over year comparisons do not tell the full story of how much the housing market has contracted. The September 2021 closed transaction total was 11, 257, so last month was down a massive 48% compared with 2 years ago. New home sales have remained resilient and actually grew both month over month and year over year, despite the extremely weak demand in the re-sale market. If we look purely at re-sale closings September was down an incredible 55% compared with 2 years ago in September 2021. In contrast new home closings were down just 3% from 2 years ago.
Once again, the new home numbers were significantly affected by a large buy-to-rent transaction in Buckeye 85326 involving 173 new homes built by DR Horton and purchased by Progress Residential as rentals. This tranche of 173 single-family homes cost $56,206,719.67, meaning they cost only $324,894 each on average. Needless to say the new home median sales price would have been much higher if this transaction were to be excluded.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 3 - The chart we showed on October 1 is somewhat depressing for agents working the re-sale housing market.
However below we have a much more cheerful version:

The key difference is that for this one we only included new home closings.
The dollar volume for new homes is not only higher than every prior year, it is up a massive 11.5% from last year. Clearly agents working for developers are not feeling the same challenges that the rest of the agent community is going through. Business is strong. demand remains good and there is no reluctance to sell due to cheap prior mortgages, because there are no cheap prior mortgages on newly built homes.
In addition, developers are happy to agree to use some of their gross margins to buy-down lower mortgage rates for their customers, at least for the first year or more.
Although the census has reported a sharp fall in building permits for single-family homes compared to a year ago, this trend has now reversed and more new homes are likely to become available in coming months.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Oct 1 - The dollar volume of closed transactions is shown in the chart below taken from the optional Cromford® Public section of our site.

This is for Maricopa and Pinal counties and we have filtered out all transactions except for Normal re-sales that went through the MLS. The numbers are year-to-date as of the end of August for each year.
The drop between 2022 and 2023 is 24%. If you are earning 24% less than last year then you are in-line with the market as a whole.
Even though sales volume is down massively, the increase in prices since 2020 means there is still more business (dollars) in 2023 than in 2020.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 28 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
We still have 2 cities that moved in a direction favorable to sellers over the last month, Cave Creek and Tempe. However these 2 are only just positive and their change over the last 2 weeks is unfavorable for sellers. In any case ,these are two of the smallest of the 17 and the general direction of the market is swinging towards buyers. Supply is increasing and demand remains extremely weak.
We can also see that the market is becoming more favorable to buyers at an accelerating rate. The average CMI change in these 17 cities over the last month was -9.4%, more negative than last week when we measured -7.8%.
Most negative again this week is Chandler, down 28%, though it remains in first place. Goodyear, Maricopa, Buckeye, Mesa and Gilbert are also much weaker than this time last month, down at least 13%.
13 out of 17 cities are still sellers markets with Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa in the balanced zone. However 3 of these cities are now below the 100 mark implying that buyers have a slight edge in negotiations in Goodyear, Maricopa and Queen Creek. On the current trajectory, these 3 could be buyers' markets by mid October, with Buckeye not far behind.
Supply remains well below normal in most areas, but Maricopa's supply index is now over 100, joining Casa Grande. Litchfield Park looks next to breach the 100 mark for its supply.
Supply is still extremely low in Anthem, Chandler, El Mirage and Gilbert.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 26 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.
The new report covers home sales during the period May to July 2023. This means the typical home sale closed in mid June, more than 3 months ago.
We are now seeing all 20 cities showing rising prices for the last few months, with a higher index for Phoenix for the fifth month in a row.
Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
- Las Vegas +1.12%
- Phoenix +0.88%
- Cleveland +0.85%
- Chicago +0.84%
- New York +0.81%
- Charlotte +0.76%
- Miami +0.74%
- Tampa +0.74%
- Detroit +0.74%
- San Diego +0.73%
- Atlanta +0.70%
- Los Angeles +0.62%
- Washington +0.57%
- Seattle +0.46%
- Dallas +0.30%
- Minneapolis +0.21%
- Denver +0.18%
- Boston +0.14%
- San Francisco +0.14%
- Portland -0.15%
Phoenix has risen very strongly in this table over the last 3 months, from last place In June to 16th place in July, 7th place in August and 2nd place in September. The national average increase month to month was +0.60%, so Phoenix was also comfortably ahead of that standard.
19 of the 20 cities are showing positive price appreciation month to month though the rates of appreciation are much lower than last month in the majority of them.
Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:
- Chicago +4.4%
- Cleveland +4.0%
- New York +3.8%
- Detroit +3.2%
- Atlanta +2.2%
- Washington +1.9%
- Miami +1.9%
- Charlotte +1.8%
- Boston +1.3%
- Minneapolis +1.0%
- San Diego +0.7%
- Los Angeles +0.4%
- Tampa -0.8%
- Denver -2.8%
- Portland -3.3%
- Dallas -3.4%
- Seattle -5.5%
- San Francisco -6.2%
- Phoenix -6.6%
- Las Vegas -7.2%
Phoenix lies in 19th place, down from 17th last month and among the weakest cities on a year over year basis. More than half the cities are now showing positive price movement from one year ago and once again the northern cities are looking good on the year over year measure.
The national average is +1.0% year over year.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 23 - There are probably many subscribers who wonder why I am so dismissive of the usefulness of measuring days on market. I have no issue with measuring it for a specific listing, though you should always bear in mind that it may have been manipulated by the listing agent. But for the market as a whole, it is an unusually poor indicator. To see this let us look at the current weekly chart
If you were basing your view on this chart, you would take away the impression that the market is improving for sellers and has been since February. This is not true. The market stopped improving back in June and is getting increasingly difficult as inventory starts to build and demand withers in the face of affordability pressures. Yet the average days on market for closed listings continues to fall.
Over the last 20 years, the average days on market can be seen to respond to market changes, but is is usually 2 to 4 months behind the times. This makes it worse than useless. It is positively misleading. We include the chart because so many people are familiar with the measure and want to know what it is. But we attach no credibility to any signals that it might send out. All the signals are out of date by the time they are received.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 21 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This week we have only 2 cities that moved in a direction favorable to sellers over the last month, with Paradise Valley reversing and only Cave Creek and Tempe left. If we look at the change over the last week, even Tempe & Cave Creek have deteriorated for sellers.
We can safely conclude that the market is becoming more favorable to buyers at an accelerating rate. The average CMI change in these 17 cities over the last month was -7.8%, more negative than last week when we measured -5.9%.
Most negative again this week is Chandler, down 26%, though it remains comfortably in first place. Goodyear and Gilbert are also much weaker than this time last month.
13 out of 17 cities are sellers markets with Buckeye. Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa in the balanced zone. Three of the cities are now below the 100 mark implying that buyers have a slight edge in negotiations in these three cities.
All these observations apply primarily to the re-sale market. The new home market remains more favorable to sellers - the homebuilders are comfortably in charge.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 18 - Over the last 2 months, the average price per sq. ft. for closed listings has been unusually stable. It started at $282.81 on July 18 and ended at $282.57 on September 18.
The average $/SF for the list price of those same closed listings is even more stable. It started at $288.33 and ended at $288.46. Note that this went up very slightly while the average sale price went down very slightly, confirming that listings are closing for a marginally lower percentage of list than 2 months ago.
Meanwhile the average $/SF for listings under contract has been rising over the last month after falling for the month before that. It now stands at $313.72 after starting at $308.40 and dipping to $304.02. This is a consequence of the luxury market waking up after its sleepy summer season.
The gap between the green line and the brown line in the chart is now too wide, suggesting that closed pricing will probably rise between now and October 18.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 17 - Active listing counts have started to rise significantly over the past 2 weeks, with the counts excluding UCB and CCBS listings moving up 6.1% from September 2 to September 16.
New listings are still scarce, but they are less scarce than a month ago. We have seen the 28-day count rise from the low of 6,486 on July 31 to around 7,100 this week. This is still well below normal (9,500 to 10,500) but demand is so weak that an extra 150 listings per week cannot be absorbed.
The increase in supply is causing the Cromford® Market Index to fall, signaling a weakening market balance for sellers.
This trend is looking like it will probably continue until mid-November, when the usual seasonal decline in active listings is likely to kick in. This is good for buyers since they will have more choice and a little extra negotiation power.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 14 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This week we again have the only 3 cities that moved in a direction favorable to sellers over the last month, with Buckeye running out of steam.
The other 14 cities all moved in a direction favorable to buyers. The downward trend accelerated since last week. The average CMI change in these 17 cities over the last month was -5.9%, more negative than last week when we measured -3.9%.
There must be something in the waters of Cave Creek, as it is far out of step with the rest of the valley, falling hard earlier in the year but bouncing back now. Paradise Valley is losing momentum and is likely to have turned negative by next week. Tempe retains some momentum, but it is weakening. Overall the situation is deteriorating for sellers, though they still have the advantage in most locations. One exception is Queen Creek, which we would classify as balanced. With a CMI of 97.7, buyers have a slight edge in this large community that includes the poorly-defined and unincorporated San Tan Valley area.
Most negative again this week is Chandler, down 20%, though it remains comfortably in first place. Fountain Hills, Goodyear and Gilbert are also much weaker than this time last month.
14 out of 17 cities are sellers markets with Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa in the balanced zone.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 10 - The current trends in the market are lessening the negotiation advantage for sellers and probably making them just a little nervous.
The above chart shows us that supply is starting to rise again. The increase was very modest for the first 6 weeks, but last week saw active listings rise over 3.2% to 12,476. This is still a small number (last year we has over 19,000 at this time), but the trend is of psychological importance. Buyers can flex their muscles a little, especially in the areas with the lowest CMI, such as Casa Grande and Queen Creek.
Of course any major change in mortgage interest rates could set a cat among the pigeons. This uncertainty works both ways, but the 7% level seems to have established itself as the borderline between good and bad sentiment. I am tempted to mention that I bought my first home in 1976 with a variable rate mortgage fixed for the first 5 years at 8.25%. Funnily enough this is actually lower than the 8.75% I am currently paying for all 3 of my residential loans. These examples are in the UK so of limited relevance, but they do remind us that home-buyers in the USA are very lucky to have 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgage rates available to them. Such things rarely exist abroad. Banks don't usually offer them without a huge amount of government intervention in the real estate lending market. This government intervention is abnormally large in the USA, compared with most foreign countries, and has been so ever since the end of the second world war.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 9 - Like me, you may have been puzzled by the sudden drop in the new home median between July and August. It came in below $500,000 for the first time since April last year.
I had to examine the individual transactions filed in Maricopa County and immediately noticed something unusual. Invitation Homes purchased an entire subdivision of Build-to-Rent 2-story homes in Litchfield Park. The subdivision is called Las Casas at Windrose and each single-family home offers around 1,940 sq. ft. of living space. They are all rentals but there is also a community center and swimming pool. They are renting for $2,500 to $3,000 per month.
The price paid represents less than $400,000 per home, and the transaction involved 133 units. This is 8.3% of all the new homes closed in Maricopa County during August and it dragged the median down from $522,490 to $499,990.
There is always an explanation if you are able to dig deep enough.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 7 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This week we again have the same 4 cities that moved in a direction favorable to sellers, but the other 13 moved in a direction favorable to buyers. The downward trend accelerated since last week. The average CMI change in these 17 cities over the last month was -3.9%, more negative than last week when we measured -2.9%.
Buckeye is still moving higher but has lost momentum. Cave Creek is bouncing back hard, and is the fastest riser over the past month. Paradise Valley and Tempe are also looking relatively strong.
Most negative this week is Chandler, down 16%, though it remains comfortably ahead of the rest. Fountain Hills and Gilbert are also significantly weaker than this time last month.
15 out of 17 are sellers markets with Queen Creek and Maricopa in the balanced zone.
Among the secondary cities Casa Grande has slipped below 90 and is now classified as a buyer's market. It is the only one so far. Among the rest of the secondary cities, Anthem, Apache Junction, Laveen, Sun Lakes and Tolleson are looking strong with CMI's over 200. Only Laveen and Arizona City have seen an increase in their CMI over the past month, so the general trend is downward among these 12 cities too.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 5 - The Maricopa County affidavits of value filed during August have been analyzed and we found:
- there were 6,556 closed transactions, down 12% from August 2022 but up 8% from July 2023
- new home closings totaled 1,607, down 1.7% from August 2022 but up 19% from July 2023
- re-sale closings came in at 4,949, down 14% from August 2022 but up 4.7% from July 2023
- the median sales price was $459,076, down 1.6% from August 2022 and down 1.3% from July 2023
- the median sales price for new homes was $499,990, down 2.4% from August 2022 and down 6.3% from July 2023
- the median sales price for re-sale homes was $445,000, down 1.1% from August 2022 and unchanged from July 2023
Closings bounced back a little from July, but remain a long way below 2022 levels. The new home market continues to show more strength than the re-sale market, particularly in volume. However the new home sales mix moved sharply toward cheaper homes between July and August causing the median to drop dramatically by more than 6%, This was not caused by home builders lowering prices. It reflects smaller homes closing during August and fewer large luxury homes closing escrow. This is not an unusual occurrence for August but the scale of the change is larger than we usually see.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Sep 4 - After failing to breach 165, the Cromford® Market Index has drifted slowly lower during July and August.
However, the downward momentum has increase since mid-August and the advantage that sellers have had over buyers is beginning to disintegrate.
When the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stays above 7%, demand for re-sale homes is so feeble that it is not even enough to eat up the small number of new listings that appear each week. Available supply is starting to grow.
At 155, the CMI still has a long way to fall before we arrive at a balanced market around 110. However each day it moves lower strengthens the bargaining power of active buyers who are in a position to afford a home.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 31 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This week we have 4 cities that moved in a direction favorable to sellers, up from 2 last week. Paradise Valley and Tempe are the new members of the green team.
Even so, the trend downwards is slightly stronger than last week. The average CMI change in these 17 cities over the last month was -2.9%, more negative than last week when we measured -2.7%.
Buckeye is moving higher and has Surprise in its sights. Cave Creek is bouncing back hard, having been one of the earliest to decline several months ago.
Most negative again is Fountain Hills, a former number one. However it remains a seller's market with a CMI over 190. 16 out of 17 are sellers markets with Queen Creek in the balanced zone.
Chandler is also declining fast although it remains out in front by a long way.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 26 - When buyers are actively looking for homes their main source of information about home prices are the list prices for homes they see listed for sale. All the other data is historic, based on what someone agreed to pay weeks or even months ago. Here is what they see when they look at the ARMLS active listings:
First of all, they notice that the average price per square foot is higher in week 34 of 2023 than in week 34 of all the years back to 2015. They can also see that every year has been higher than the one before for week 34. The weak pricing triggered in 2Q 2022 by a sudden jump in mortgage rates has had only a temporary effect and now looks to be of only minor lasting significance.
The current average $/SF for all active listings is $350.27. This an average across all areas within the ARMLS database and all dwelling types. Because this is a very large sample, the chart is very well-behaved and shows us that:
- The long-term trend has been higher for the last 8 years, with 2023 some 91% higher than 2015.
- The summer is is a seasonally weak period, each year showing a decline from May to August, except for 2020 which was bouncing back from the severe COVID scare that occurred in March and April that year. The weakness in 3Q 2023 is similar to 3Q 2015 through 2018, relatively normal and uneventful years.
- Today we see active list pricing 8.7%.higher than we did this time last year. This is a larger increase than the 6.0% we measured at the same time last year.
- There was an unusually large and rapid fall between May and August last year on top of the seasonal weakness. This was heavily influenced by the pricing actions of the iBuyers who realized too late that they had continued buying even while the market was cooling, resulting in them having far too much inventory by June 2022. They had a fire-sale of this inventory in the second half of 2022 in order to rid themselves of that exposure.
One key problem is that the reality represented above is completely unlike the false narratives peddled by several sensationalist and misguided pundits on YouTube and other social networks and even those more sober and serious analysts that were working for Goldman Sachs in January. If buyers have been reading or watching this stuff, they may enter the market with preconceived notions that are very wide of the mark..
Buyers expecting lower prices are going to be sorely disappointed, especially when the real prices are coupled with the latest 30-year mortgage rates around 7.4%. This is another reason why demand is so persistently weak this year. Simplistic observers believe weak demand translates to weaker prices. Nope. It translates to weak sales. But for prices, supply is just as important and remains drastically below normal, even though it has risen slightly over the past few weeks. Rising slightly will make little difference. We would need supply to almost double for the market to achieve balance.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 24 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
We have only 2 cities that moved in a direction favorable to sellers, down from 3 last week. Gilbert defected to the red camp again.
Even so, the trend downwards is slowing down. The average CMI change in these 17 cities over the last month was -2.7%, less negative than last week when we measured -3.3%.
Buckeye is still bucking the trend and has overtaken Goodyear as predicted. Cave Creek is also bouncing back hard, having been one the earliest to decline several months ago.
Again most negative is Fountain Hills, a former superstar and number one. However it remains a seller's market with a CMI over 190. 16 out of 17 are sellers markets with Queen Creek in the balanced zone.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 21 - You may remember our observation from Jan 25, when we accused Goldman Sachs of making "all kinds of weird and unlikely forecasts." This included a prediction that Phoenix home prices would decline by 25% in 2023.
Well it appears they have now admitted their forecasts were way off and have changed their outlook. They no longer expect US home prices to decline in 2023. They are predicting a small increase of 1.8% for the year.
Here is the chart from Tina which rubs it in a bit
To be brutally frank, there is little evidence that Goldman Sachs has any idea what it is talking about when it comes to the US housing market. Maybe this is why they are considering selling their investment-advisory business.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 17 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
After two and a half months of a deteriorating trend, this table is starting to move in the opposite direction again. We have 3 cities that moved in a direction favorable to sellers, up from 2 last week.
Gilbert is the latest recruit to the green camp.
The average CMI change in these 17 cities over the last month was -3.3%, less negative than last week when we measured -5.0%.
Buckeye is bucking the trend and has overtaken Goodyear as predicted. Cave Creek is bouncing back having been one the earliest to decline several months ago.
Most negative is Fountain Hills, a former superstar and number one. However it remains a strong seller's market with a CMI over 200. 15 out of 17 are sellers markets with Maricopa and Queen Creek in the balanced zone.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 15 - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) has just reported that the mortgage delinquency rate has fallen to its lowest level since they started tracking this metric in 1980. The seasonally-adjusted delinquency rate for 1 to 4 unit residential properties stood at 3.37% in the second quarter of 2023, down from 3.64% one year earlier. It was also down from 3.56% in 1Q 2023. Delinquencies fell from 1Q 2023 across all mortgage types, conventional, VA and FHA. However FHA loan delinquencies were up 10 basis points from the second quarter of 2022.
Holders of FHA loans tends to be the first to weaken when the economic going gets rough.
Delinquencies are moving up in other loan types however - particularly credit card debt and car loans.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 14 - When publishing the latest table ranking the top 40 cities by annual average price per sq. ft. it struck me how differently the top tier has behaved compared with the bottom tier. This is probably because the luxury market is unaffected by the activities of iBuyers and large scale institutional investors in residential property. Since they were not active over $1 million, the collapse in their buying has had no effect on the high-end market.
Here are the top 5 cities based on annual inflation, measured using the annual average $/SF:
- Paradise Valley +13.7%
- Carefree +8.4%
- Coolidge +6.2%
- New River +4.8%
- Fountain Hills +4.5%
While at the other end we find:
- Arizona City -5.3%
- Florence -3.8%
- Litchfield Park -3.8%
- Sun City West -3.6%
- El Mirage -3.5%
The outer fringes have been very mixed with Arizona City and Florence doing poorly while Coolidge has caught up with the rest of the pack while remaining the least expensive place to buy a home in Central Arizona. New River is also a star performer.
The high-end has been more consistent, with Scottsdale just missing out on a top 5 finish with +3.1%, while Carefree and Paradise Valley are way ahead of the rest of the valley.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 12 - I wonder how many people twelve months ago were expecting the average sales price per square foot to be essentially unchanged a year later. Most observers, and especially the iBuyers, were in abject despair after the quick price decline that occurred between June and August 2022.
To be pedantic, we are actually 20 cents lower today than a year ago, but in the last 12 months the average $/SF dropped as low as $264.17 in the second week of 2023, only to recover by almost 8% in the 7 months since then.
An 8% rise when demand is far below normal reminds us of the important effect of the chronic lack of supply in our housing market.
The average $/SF is up almost 48% from the same point in 2020. It is not a bubble, so it is not bursting.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 10 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
Over the last month the market has moved slowly and slightly in a direction favorable to buyers, but this has made precious little difference. We are still in a seller's market in 15 of 17 cities and in a balanced market in Maricopa and Queen Creek.
The average CMI change in these 17 cities over the last month was -5.0%, less negative than last week when we measured -6.0%.
Only 2 cities continue to show a positive change from this time last month, Buckeye and Cave Creek. Buckeye continues to improve for sellers and has overtaken Maricopa. Now it is taking aim at Goodyear.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 8 - The residential re-sale market has changed very little over the past 2 months, but other parts of the real estate market are seeing more significant changes.
The office sector within commercial real-estate is severely challenged by declining demand. People seem to like working-from-home. The supply of office space exceeds supply by a clear margin and so asset values are dropping. This is a worldwide phenomena and is especially true of offices in less than perfect condition or in less than ideal locations. The market conditions mean lenders are becoming increasingly reluctant to take them as security for loans and owners with the need to refinance in the next 2 years are going to have a hard time. One obvious casualty is WeWork, which was once valued at $47 billion and now says there is substantial doubt that it can continue as a going concern.
The short-term rental market appears to have peaked in a number of over-supplied locations. This is leading to ludicrous prophecies by a few deranged real estate gurus that a huge flood of former short-term rental homes will hit the market in the near future. So many owners joined the Airbnb party that there are sometimes far more short-term rental properties than there are people wanting to rent them. This means lower occupancy and price competition, making ownership of a short-term rental much less attractive than it was a couple of years ago. Over the last 2 years average occupancy is reported to have dropped from 60% to 56%. This is a negative trend but hardly of catastrophic proportions.
Some owners are considering converting to long-term rentals instead. The theoretical advantages are higher occupancy and greater peace of mind but the main disadvantage is a relatively low gross income compared with the owner's original expectations. We are seeing plenty of new higher-priced rental listings in the Northeast Valley, some being furnished and probably former short-term rentals. The number of potential tenants for these is limited, because of the relatively high rent.
There is currently no great shortage of potential tenants at the affordable end below $2,000 a month. However if people can afford a rent over $4000 a month, then they are usually of a mind to buy a home. The exceptions would be those who expect to be renting for only a year or two. This includes students sharing a home and recent graduate who expect to move soon for their career advancement. Settled families with children in school are unlikely to want a high-price rental unless they are in a secure high-paying job. And in those circumstances, a mortgage should be easy to obtain.
As a result we have already seen weakness in the rental rate per square foot for homes over $2,500 per month in Scottsdale. $1.89 was the July average, The peak was $2.16 in February 2022.
We currently have 49.8% more active rental listings than we did 12 months ago. About 800 of them are in Scottsdale and their average asking rent is $4,380. This time last year there were only 517 with an average rent of $4,290. The average is going up because those with a higher rent are staying active longer, not because rents are increasing.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 6 - The annual sales rate is a useful tool to measure the amount of activity in the market. The monthly sales rate is not so good for a number of reasons:
- it is subject to significant seasonal variation - April is much busier than January, for example
- it is subject to having anywhere from 18 to 23 working days, which means a long month will have far higher sales than a short month, even if the market is unchanged.
- it is subject to large fluctuations month to month just because of the small sample size
The annual sales rate avoids all three of these problems
- it uses data from all days of the year, so there is no seasonal effect at all
- it uses data from 365 days, a constant number except for a leap year, when the variation is just 1 day in 366.
- it is a steady reliable number with minimal meaningless fluctuations in the count reported, thanks to the large sample size
The annual sales rate for all areas and types is currently 73,800. This is a low number, down from 102,822 a year ago. It is also still showing a slow decline, having been 74,148 this time last month. However the decline month to month is now very small (0.5%) and there is no longer much downward momentum.
In these circumstances, we can expect a few sub-markets to be showing some annual sales growth on a month to month basis. Looking at the single-family market by ZIP code, we find the following:
- 60 out of 148 ZIP codes are showing higher annual sales compared with a month ago.
- The best growth is in:
- Fort McDowell 85264
- Carefree 85377
- Scottsdale 85250
- Surprise 85387
- Glendale 85305
- Waddell 85355
- Rio Verde 85263
- Glendale 85307
- Chandler 85224
- Scottsdale 85262
- The following are showing the worst declines month to month:
- Stanfield 85172
- Gila Bend 85337
- Morristown 85342
- Phoenix 85009
- Casa Grande 85193
- Arlington 85322
- Peoria 85381
- Phoenix 85035
- Tempe 85284
- Phoenix 85043
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 4 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
The market continues to slowly lose steam and the average CMI change in these 17 cities over the last month was -6.0%, just a shade more negative than last week when we measured -5.9%
Only 4 cities continue to show a positive change from this time last month, while 1 is unchanged and 12 show a negative trend for sellers, particularly Tempe, Fountain Hills, Avondale, Glendale and Peoria.
Buckeye is the only city improving a lot for sellers and has overtaken Maricopa which slips into 16th.
Queen Creek has dropped into the balanced zone below 110, while the other 16 are seller's markets.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 3 - The Maricopa County affidavits of value have been counted and show us the following numbers for July 2023:
- There were 6,081 closed transactions with a median sales price of $464,990
- Closings were down 15% from July 2022, and down 20% from June 2023
- The median sales price was down 2.1% from a year ago and down 1.3% from last month
- The median sales price has fallen for the first time since January and is now up 5.7% from the low point of January 2023.
- New home closings totaled 1,352 with a median sales price of $533,592, an all-time record high price
- The new home closed sales count was up 7.6% from July 2022 but down 18.4% from June 2023.
- The new home median sales price is up 3.2% from a year ago, and up 2.8% from last month
- The re-sale transaction count was 4,729 with a median sales price of $445,000.
- The re-sale count was down 20% from July 2022 and down 21% from June 2023.
- The re-sale median sales price was down 4.1% from last year and down 0.5% from last month
Closed transaction counts remain very weak for re-sales, with both supply and demand in poor shape. Closing counts were much stronger in the new home market, up almost 8% from this time last year. Pricing was also higher for new builds than a year ago. Resale pricing paused in July but still looks likely to overtake last year's pricing during the next three months.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC
Aug 1 - The chart below is extracted from the Cromford® Public section of the site and includes all recorded deeds in Maricopa and Pinal counties for single-family and condo / townhouse properties up to the end of June 2023
What jumps out at you is that the average price recorded at closing is now higher at $580,373 than at any time in the past. The correction over the last 12 months is now complete.
At the same time the average size of homes closed has increased, so the same chart for average $/SF has not accomplished a complete recovery of the ground lost since mid-2022.
We should also point out that new homes made a big contribution to the health of this chart. If we only count re-sale transactions, then the full recovery is not yet achieved.
©2023 Cromford Associat LLC